Category Five Hurricane Lee

[Windspeed]

Wow, NHC is not holding back at all, I see. Yes, intensity guidence modeling is out the roof with a very high potential that Lee reaches at least Category 4 intensity. But it's the rarest of rare to see the first official TD forecast to become a Category 4. I'm not sure it's ever happened. I certainly do not recall a previous scenario out of memory. Not even going to dig, I really do not think this has ever occurred in my lifetime.

[ineedsnow]

I think the 12z GFS will be a bit closer.. 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I think the 12z GFS will be a bit closer.. 

The trough axis coming through the lakes is quite a bit further West compared to 00z at 168hrs.

[NJwx85]

12z GFS will be West of the 06z run.

[GaWx]

-12Z UKMET initialized this at 13.4N, 39.1W vs the Best Track's 12Z of 12.2N, 39.6W. So, the 12Z's initialization is 90 miles NNE of the actual position.

-12Z UKMET is stronger and is at hour 156 ~150 miles ENE of the 0Z's hour 168. At 168, the 12Z is N of the SE Bahamas moving WNW at only 5 mph vs the 0Z being in the SE Bahamas:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L        ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N  39.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952023

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 05.09.2023    0  13.4N  39.1W     1011            24
    0000UTC 06.09.2023   12  13.8N  42.0W     1009            25
    1200UTC 06.09.2023   24  14.2N  44.7W     1007            31
    0000UTC 07.09.2023   36  15.3N  46.7W     1007            34
    1200UTC 07.09.2023   48  16.4N  49.0W     1006            35
    0000UTC 08.09.2023   60  17.5N  52.0W     1006            31
    1200UTC 08.09.2023   72  18.5N  55.1W     1007            32
    0000UTC 09.09.2023   84  19.4N  58.4W     1006            30
    1200UTC 09.09.2023   96  19.9N  61.2W     1005            39
    0000UTC 10.09.2023  108  20.6N  63.6W     1003            46
    1200UTC 10.09.2023  120  21.4N  66.5W     1002            50
    0000UTC 11.09.2023  132  21.9N  68.6W      998            52
    1200UTC 11.09.2023  144  22.4N  70.2W      998            50
    0000UTC 12.09.2023  156  23.9N  71.0W      996            60
    1200UTC 12.09.2023  168  24.2N  72.0W      996            46

[ineedsnow]

[cardinalland]

this GFS run is also quite a bit slower, storm has already made landfall by that time in Canada on the last run

[NJwx85]

Looks like a direct impact on SNE coming around day 11.

This run is a day slower than most of the recent GFS runs.

[ineedsnow]

heck of a pre with that 

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Looks like a direct impact on SNE coming around day 11.

This run is a day slower than most of the recent GFS runs.

Big rain field as well even our area gets rain 

[ineedsnow]

cape crusher

[ineedsnow]

cape crusher but everyone gets flooding rains

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Big rain field as well even our area gets rain 

Interaction/enhancement from the trough. Wind field expands and the storm only weakens slightly.

[NJwx85]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

cape crusher but everyone gets flooding rains

You would probably get tropical storm force winds all the way back to NYC with that type of track.

Cape Cod would see hurricane force gusts.

[Normandy]

Might as well go ahead and start the banter thread now lol

[WxWatcher007]

28 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Wow, NHC is not holding back at all, I see. Yes, intensity guidence modeling is out the roof with a very high potential that Lee reaches at least Category 4 intensity. But it's the rarest of rare to see the first official TD forecast to become a Category 4. I'm not sure it's ever happened. I certainly do not recall a previous scenario out of memory. Not even going to dig, I really do not think this has ever occurred in my lifetime.

First time according to the talking heads on Twitter 

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You would probably get tropical storm force winds all the way back to NYC with that type of track.

Cape Cod would see hurricane force gusts.

Wild to think of all the water that would push into the bay of Fundy

[nycsnow]

Just checked and yeah from nyc east there’s a period of tropical storm force winds. 

[GaWx]

Even with the 12Z UKMET being 150 miles ENE of its 0Z run at the end, it is at hour 168 still a whopping 350 miles WSW of the 12Z GFS at 168.

[JonClaw]

39 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Wow, NHC is not holding back at all, I see. Yes, intensity guidence modeling is out the roof with a very high potential that Lee reaches at least Category 4 intensity. But it's the rarest of rare to see the first official TD forecast to become a Category 4. I'm not sure it's ever happened. I certainly do not recall a previous scenario out of memory. Not even going to dig, I really do not think this has ever occurred in my lifetime.

 

[tiger_deF]

Aside from a thick CDO, you can't really ask for a better tropical depression satellite presentation. Robust dual outflow channels, a defined low level circulation, and visible banding. Future Lee is primed to take off. Not only is this going to be a powerful hurricane, but it is also going to be a large one. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Aside from a thick CDO, you can't really ask for a better tropical depression satellite presentation. Robust dual outflow channels, a defined low level circulation, and visible banding. Future Lee is primed to take off. Not only is this going to be a powerful hurricane, but it is also going to be a large one. 

Like a Katrina…she was big and powerful. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

The big take away from this storm, regardless of if it ever makes landfall on the east coast, is it’s huge eventual size will cause allot of water to move towards the coast in the form of extremely long period swells. This is going to be a major beach erosion event.

Also, lee looks to Miss the bulk of the cold wake left by Franklin. 
a very memorable coastal event is on the way

[olafminesaw]

Not a lot of steering in the medium range, it's crawling on the Euro at around 150 hrs. May make for a tricky forecast wrt the timing with the trough.

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Wow, NHC is not holding back at all, I see. Yes, intensity guidence modeling is out the roof with a very high potential that Lee reaches at least Category 4 intensity. But it's the rarest of rare to see the first official TD forecast to become a Category 4. I'm not sure it's ever happened. I certainly do not recall a previous scenario out of memory. Not even going to dig, I really do not think this has ever occurred in my lifetime.

I said the exact same thing on FB when the first advisory came out and I've been tracking storms for a long time - maybe it has happened, but I don't recall it.  Just looked back at a few of the big ones over the last 25 years (the ones on the NHC archive page) and Ida was the closest, with 110 mph predicted at 72 hours in the first advisory.  

[GaWx]

12z Euro at hour 180 ~75miles SSW of 0Z 192 with 925 mb but still recurving (along 67W).

[cardinalland]

12z Euro: trough and ridge are both significantly west of 00z

[Intensewind002]

21 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I said the exact same thing on FB when the first advisory came out and I've been tracking storms for a long time - maybe it has happened, but I don't recall it.  Just looked back at a few of the big ones over the last 25 years (the ones on the NHC archive page) and Ida was the closest, with 110 mph predicted at 72 hours in the first advisory.  

If I remember correctly I believe Sam from a couple of years ago was forecast to be a major by 120 hrs on its first advisory but I’m certain it wasn’t 120 kts. Maybe something in the East Pacific had an intensity forecast like this but I’m not entirely sure

Edit: I found that Hurricane Walaka in the Central Pacific was forecast to reach 110 kts on it’s first advisory, eventually it peaked as a Cat 5. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/cp01/cp012018.discus.001.shtml?

[Porsche]

at 240 on the Euro

[Normandy]

If we are being honest this is a pretty good setup for an east coast strike.  Blocking high to the NE and big hurricane moving NW.  the only thing missing is a strong trough to pull it in, but I think the signal is there for a stressful few days upcoming.