Category Five Hurricane Lee

[GaWx]

Some additional 12Z op runs:

 

UKMET: Bay of Fundy/NB early 9/17

Meteo-France: Bay of Fundy/NB 9/16 PM

JMA: Cape Cod 9/16 PM

KMA: SW NS 9/16 PM

[Amped]

The wind field has really expanded. Hurricane force winds now extend out 60 to 80 NM from the center.

[olafminesaw]

12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Regardless where/if this comes ashore, I think the calling card will be rain and inland flooding. There’s really no baroclinic forcing or jet streak to enhance winds during the ET transition like some of the storms that hit up north and models are showing a rapid and normal decay of winds once this transitions over the wall of the Gulf Stream. Add into that, wind shear really peaks at 20-30kts by the time this is going by Bermuda and you have a rapidly weakening system before it hits the cold water north of the GS. Also, for a high latitude storm, this will be comparatively crawling in terms of forward speed (which will further decrease the wind threat). However, that slower than normal forward speed and tge potential for a bit of a pivot means that heavy tropical moisture will be thrust into the NW side of the system (normal during ET transition) and areas not accustomed to these tropical rain rates will have a prolonged rainstorm. I really think inland flooding with this could be significantly worse than many recent high latitude storms that were flying through when they impacted land. Though I think the wind threat has decreased significantly since even yesterday 

Agreed, although coastal Maine is more vulnerable to wind damage than NS I would imagine. Looking back through records per Weather spark, gusts in the 50- 60 mph at Bar Harbor are much more rare (maybe once a year), compared to Halifax (3-5 times per year). NS also recently went through Fiona, so this should be no problem for them, while I believe it's been a while since Maine has had a storm of this magnitude. It seems plausible that a large area of the coast near landfall will experience high end TS to low end Hurricane force gusts 

[GaWx]

 EPS prior two runs: The very active 0Z EPS still had only 4 (8%) of members hit the NE US outside of ME. The 6Z EPS had ~11 (22%)! That was by far the highest % with US landfalls outside of ME for any EPS.

 12Z EPS: is back down to ~5 MA landfalls. ME still has a bunch though I think they decreased some. So, the new EPS is still quite active in regard to NE US landfalls but the mean track did shift a bit E vs the 6Z.

[Rtd208]

 

[NJwx85]

Why is it having such a hard time clearing out the eye?

Outflow is ridiculous and it's still over sufficiently warm water.

Shear appears low and don't see a lot of dry air intrusion. 

 

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Why is it having such a hard time clearing out the eye?

Outflow is ridiculous and it's still over sufficiently warm water.

Shear appears low and don't see a lot of dry air intrusion. 

 

Possibly due to its own cooling of waters ahead of the center's path due to the combo of slow movement (7 mph) and very large size (H winds 125 miles from center). It is a very large and strong beast. A very large major hurricane needs a lot of fuel just to maintain its status. But it's likely using up the warm water fuel too fast to clear the eye with its slow movement and may need fresh warm water to restrengthen, which isn't in the cards due to continued slow movement. 
 That's my educated guess fwiw.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

 

His comment is what I asked about earlier as to the trough not having as much ability to erode the high?

[Intensewind002]

Any reason why WPC is issuing the advisories instead of the hurricane center today?

[Windspeed]

After 84 years, Major Hurricane Lee has a dominant eyewall that is producing enough subsidence to clear out a rather large eye. As has been reiterated, Lee's gradient is loose for a sub 950s mb hurricane; as pressures fall, hurricane force winds are spreading out away from the center rather than increasing near the center. However, convection does have some >70°C tops for now. There should still be Category 3 winds in the eastern eyewall as Lee slugs NNW, and it could tighten a bit of gradient enough to increase the eyewall winds slightly. But not enough to increase a category.

[Windspeed]

Wow.. Lee has had a massive expansion of hurricane force winds.

Lee is very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). Saildrone 1036, located about 70 miles (115 km) northwest of Lee's center, recently reported a wind gust to 92 mph (148 km/h).

[MJO812]

Eps vs the world

That was a big shift west

[MJO812]

Euro was slightly west at 18z

 

[Neblizzard]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps vs the world

That was a big shift west

You have the maps?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Neblizzard said:

You have the maps?

 

[GaWx]

 I count ~15 on the 18Z EPS with a non-Maine US landfall, which is even more than the ~11 on the 6Z! There are still ~15 (30%) that landfall in Canada either in S NS or NB. That leaves ~21 (42%) first hitting ME.

[RU848789]

Yeah, the Euro ensemble mean shifted west about 60 miles from 12Z (but 0Z last night was even about 60 miles further west), with obviously more members hitting west of Maine.   

[wthrmn654]

Most all the runs at 18z including Hurricane models had some shift west.  

[wthrmn654]

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located

near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 66.7 West. Lee is moving toward

the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). Lee is forecast to turn toward

the north on Thursday and increase in forward speed.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher

gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the

next 48 hours, however Lee is likely to remain a large and 

dangerous hurricane for the next couple of days.

 

Lee is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend 

outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and 

tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

Saildrone 1036, located about 75 miles (120 km) northwest of Lee's 

center, recently reported a wind gust to 88 mph (141 km/h).

 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).

[Amped]

GFS already has more ridging to the NE of Lee this run.   It will probably end up further west than 18z.

[MJO812]

Gfs is alot further SW through 54

[MattPetrulli]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is alot further SW through 54

Way west, in EPS we trust

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

Way west, in EPS we trust

Cmc was also west but not like the gfs.

[JonClaw]

~150 miles west compared to 12z at HR90

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET shifted back E some to a landfall on SW NS 9/16 evening at 970 mb from 12Z's track through Bay of Fundy to NB:

HURRICANE LEE        ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N  66.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 13.09.2023    0  24.7N  66.6W      939            85
    1200UTC 13.09.2023   12  25.6N  67.5W      950            77
    0000UTC 14.09.2023   24  27.3N  67.8W      947            82
    1200UTC 14.09.2023   36  29.2N  68.4W      945            82
    0000UTC 15.09.2023   48  31.5N  68.2W      945            73
    1200UTC 15.09.2023   60  34.0N  67.8W      950            62
    0000UTC 16.09.2023   72  37.2N  66.8W      955            73
    1200UTC 16.09.2023   84  40.7N  66.8W      958            57
    0000UTC 17.09.2023   96  43.7N  65.9W      970            48
    1200UTC 17.09.2023  108  46.9N  63.8W      985            41
    0000UTC 18.09.2023  120  49.0N  58.1W      993            34
    1200UTC 18.09.2023  132  53.0N  45.8W      993            37
    0000UTC 19.09.2023  144              POST-TROPICAL

[MJO812]

Gefs big sw shift 

[GaWx]

Some more 0Z runs:
-Meteo-France big shift W from 12Z's Bay of Fundy/NB to 0Z's C ME
-ICON similar to last two runs into SW NS early 9/17 973 mb
-CMC 75 mile W shift to W NS at 988 mb early 9/17
-0Z JMA tracks just E of Cape Cod to landfall WC ME late 9/16 (slightly E of 12Z, which was on Cape Cod)

0Z Euro landfall E ME at 102 hours very early 9/17 975 mb

[NJwx85]

https://x.com/michaelrlowry/status/1701793885108777040?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

How do you embed tweets now?

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

https://x.com/michaelrlowry/status/1701793885108777040?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

How do you embed tweets now?

Yea, this will cause a great deal of erosion, regardless of where it tracks.

Man, lets get a track like this in January.

[yoda]

Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
800 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA 
BEGINNING EARLY TOMORROW...
...RISK OF WIND, COASTAL FLOODING, AND RAIN IMPACTS INCREASING FOR
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 67.2W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Lee.  Watches may be required for a
portion of these areas later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.