Category Five Hurricane Lee

[jm1220]

We can be far away from the center from here on N and still have significant impacts. That being said away from Cape Cod and Downeast Maine/Canada the most likely impacts will be huge waves that cause serious erosion from the growing wind field causing big time fetch. I doubt Lee strengthens much if at all from here because it still has an eroded/dry air type look and it’s about to enter cooler water caused by Franklin. When it does get up to this latitude it’s probably barely hanging on as a hurricane and transitioning to ET. 

[cardinalland]

this could have similar impacts to a nor’easter for much of eastern new england. i don’t expect to get more than a little fringe rain here in new haven though

[GaWx]

 For trend following purposes for those who like following these and for the record here are EPS 0Z/12Z run US landfalls, which have resulted in three runs in a row with 20%+. That's a significant %, but OTOH the rising has stopped for now and it is still well under 50%:

9/11 12Z: ~11 (22%): ~9 ME, 2 MA

9/11 0Z: ~12 (24%): ~9 ME, 1 MA, 1 RI, 1 NY

9/10 12Z: 10 (20%): 6 ME, 3 MA, 1 RI

9/10 0Z: 3 (6%): 1 ME, 2 MA

9/9 12Z: 6 (12%) 9/17-19 (3 ME, 3 MA)
9/9 0Z: 3 (6%) 9/17 (3 ME)
9/8 12Z: 5 (10%) 9/15-18 (5 ME) 
9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY)
9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ)
9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA)
9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA)
9/6 0Z: 5 (10%)
9/5 12Z: 2 (4%)
9/5 0Z: 4 (8%) 
9/4 12Z: 1 (2%) 
9/4 0Z: 2 (4%)

 Aside: 12Z op hit W NS at 969 mb very early on 9/17

[WxWatcher007]

What an eye developing on Lee. 
 

 

[GaWx]

18Z ICON/GFS a little faster and approach/hit W NS at 120 (Sep 16th afternoon). They're both in mid to high 960s for SLP while just offshore. It appears to be down to a TS then though a very large one with wide reaching effects. So, the exact landfall location would probably not matter as much as it would for a more compact storm.

 For the probably few who care, the 12Z JMA hits Eastport, ME, at 144 (Sep 17th AM).

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What an eye developing on Lee. 
 

 

Might take some time to clear out though (this a couple hours later)

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What an eye developing on Lee. 
 

 

Hurricane models showed this nicely. Huge expansion of wind field and truck tire eye. Not much strengthening though due to larger size.

[Rtd208]

I think where things are with Lee's track right now should be close to the final solution but we have seen stranger things happen at this lead time.

[BYG Jacob]

25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Hurricane models showed this nicely. Huge expansion of wind field and truck tire eye. Not much strengthening though due to larger size.

A lot less weakening though, Canada and NE may be in for a really bad time.

[Wannabehippie]

Does anyone have the flight data to see if the eye of Lee is open or closed?
Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

[Castaway]

Waiting for the next frame. If it’s starting to look like I think it’s starting to look, the eye is looking insane and with potentially more strengthing ahead.

[WaPo]

Starting to take on an Isabel shape. It’s almost in the same spot. 
 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said:

Does anyone have the flight data to see if the eye of Lee is open or closed?
Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits


 

Open on last VDM, although that was 5 hours ago.

[Wannabehippie]

37 minutes ago, Castaway said:

Waiting for the next frame. If it’s starting to look like I think it’s starting to look, the eye is looking insane and with potentially more strengthing ahead.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

4 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

The Southern part of that warm area is where I would expect to see the eye with cold tops wrapping around it.  The rest of it looks 'wrong' to me somehow.  Like something is hindering the storm.

[MattPetrulli]

I don't think LF should focused upon as much as it should be for compact systems. It can landfall in NS and still be some pretty significant impacts for NE. Especially since there probably won't be a definite wind max at that stage and convection will primarily be focused to the west and NW. 

[BombsAway1288]

9 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I don't think LF should focused upon as much as it should be for compact systems. It can landfall in NS and still be some pretty significant impacts for NE. Especially since there probably won't be a definite wind max at that stage and convection will primarily be focused to the west and NW. 

Absolutely. Looks like there may be a consensus forming wrt landfall location but like you said, impacts would def be felt far away.
Hurricane models coming together anywhere from EME-WNS but most importantly not one is OTS. Lee will be making landfall somewhere. 

[MattPetrulli]

2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Absolutely. Looks like there may be a consensus forming wrt landfall location but like you said, impacts would def be felt far away.
Hurricane models coming together anywhere from EME-WNS but most importantly not one is OTS. Lee will be making landfall somewhere. 

Thing is, even if its a NS landfall, it's pretty obvious this can end up being just as significant if not worse for the USA, given the lack of a compact core by then. 

[jm1220]

19 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I don't think LF should focused upon as much as it should be for compact systems. It can landfall in NS and still be some pretty significant impacts for NE. Especially since there probably won't be a definite wind max at that stage and convection will primarily be focused to the west and NW. 

There’ll be huge waves this weekend with that track on the E Coast and expanding windfield/fetch. Franklin was more powerful but with a smaller size and curved more NE. That’s what I’m most concerned about where I am. There will probably be direct impacts in terms of rain and TS winds for Cape Cod and Downeast ME but the more serious impacts will be for Canada on the E side but it won’t be a strong hurricane by then. Might not even be a hurricane at all by the time it makes it there. It’s not a situation where a strong hurricane would make landfall there like last year. It’s more like a Henri without baroclinic support to speed it up and deliver energy. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Thing is, even if its a NS landfall, it's pretty obvious this can end up being just as significant if not worse for the USA, given the lack of a compact core by then. 

I don't think it will be worse on the west side, with the exception of rain.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the path to the most wind on the west side is for this to complete extra tropical transition with great haste and essentially strike as a nor 'easter. While it is true that the wind field is expanding, the envelop of winds also becomes increasingly asymmetrical in the mid latitudes with much less wind on the west side of the system. It's on the east side where you add the forward momentum of movement where the strongest gusts more proficiently mix down. The west side is the focus on heavy rain, however.

[jm1220]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the path to the most wind on the west side is for this to complete extra tropical transition with great haste and essentially strike as a nor 'easter. While it is true that the wind field is expanding, the envelop of winds also becomes increasingly asymmetrical in the mid latitudes with much less wind on the west side of the system. It's on the east side where you add the forward momentum of movement where the strongest gusts more proficiently mix down. The west side is the focus on heavy rain, however.

Henri on the west side gave me on western LI 5" of rain and parts of NYC 7-8", but the winds were essentially just breezy. Nothing more than a windy rainy day, and the waves were impressive but I've seen a good bit worse from regular nor'easters. This will be much bigger in size but the east side like you said will have the wind/any surge issue.

[BombsAway1288]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the path to the most wind on the west side is for this to complete extra tropical transition with great haste and essentially strike as a nor 'easter. While it is true that the wind field is expanding, the envelop of winds also becomes increasingly asymmetrical in the mid latitudes with much less wind on the west side of the system. It's on the east side where you add the forward momentum of movement where the strongest gusts more proficiently mix down. The west side is the focus on heavy rain, however.

No doubt. Rain is the biggest threat on the western side. Winds will be there but just be low end tropical storm strength. That however might significant enough with a very saturated ground and full leaf out, something we don’t usually get with strong nor’easters 

[Random Chaos]

This is going to be one giant eye when it finishes clearing out the remnants of the old eye. Probably 12-ish hours left on that.

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: gets down to 937 mb tomorrow evening, lowest yet for the restrengthening peak; a little further E track leading to landfall in W NS vs going into Bay of Fundy before NB landfall on 12Z run:

HURRICANE LEE        ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N  64.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 12.09.2023    0  23.9N  64.4W      945            82
    1200UTC 12.09.2023   12  24.2N  65.8W      952            84
    0000UTC 13.09.2023   24  24.8N  66.6W      937            89
    1200UTC 13.09.2023   36  26.0N  67.2W      946            83
    0000UTC 14.09.2023   48  27.6N  67.5W      943            83
    1200UTC 14.09.2023   60  29.5N  68.0W      945            77
    0000UTC 15.09.2023   72  31.7N  67.8W      941            78
    1200UTC 15.09.2023   84  34.2N  66.8W      953            66
    0000UTC 16.09.2023   96  37.8N  65.9W      958            76
    1200UTC 16.09.2023  108  41.4N  65.6W      963            59
    0000UTC 17.09.2023  120  44.7N  65.3W      977            45
    1200UTC 17.09.2023  132  47.6N  63.5W      989            39
    0000UTC 18.09.2023  144  49.8N  60.3W      994            33
    1200UTC 18.09.2023  156  51.2N  54.1W      998            38
    0000UTC 19.09.2023  168              CEASED TRACKING

[GaWx]

1. The 0Z Euro hits the C ME coast ~8AM on 9/17 at 972 mb.

2. The 0Z EPS looks like it has the highest % of members with a US landfall yet. There are so many that it will be very hard to count them. Most by far are in ME. It looks like ~4 in MA. I'm roughly guessing 12-15 in ME, where the rest of them are.

3. The odd thing is that the 0Z GEFS had the smallest # of US hits in quite awhile with only 4 (13%) vs the 0Z EPS' ~31%+!

4. Also odd is that the 0Z GEPS has only one US hit, the smallest # on a GEPS since way back at the 0Z 9/9 run!

5. Also odd is that the 0Z Euro is the only 0Z op model that hit the US. The GFS barely missed and the others were further away.

[olafminesaw]

still some pesky convection in the old eyewall, but the new eye is really starting to rock and roll 

[WxWatcher007]

Latest MW

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. The 0Z Euro hits the C ME coast ~8AM on 9/17 at 972 mb.

2. The 0Z EPS looks like it has the highest % of members with a US landfall yet. There are so many that it will be very hard to count them. Most by far are in ME. It looks like ~4 in MA. I'm roughly guessing 12-15 in ME, where the rest of them are.

3. The odd thing is that the 0Z GEFS had the smallest # of US hits in quite awhile with only 4 (13%) vs the 0Z EPS' ~31%+!

4. Also odd is that the 0Z GEPS has only one US hit, the smallest # on a GEPS since way back at the 0Z 9/9 run!

5. Also odd is that the 0Z Euro is the only 0Z op model that hit the US. The GFS barely missed and the others were further away.

Euro is a big outlier right now. GFS and GEFS shifted east.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is a big outlier right now. GFS and GEFS shifted east.

The speed of Lee is a major reason why. The slower it moves the more time for ridging to build to its northeast.