Category Five Hurricane Lee

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET:

-slight left shift (vs 0Z's W NS landfall) with skim of W NS at 975 mb followed by move into Bay of Fundy and early 9/17 NB landfall

-slightly stronger peak of 940 mb Tues night

HURRICANE LEE        ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N  63.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 11.09.2023    0  23.1N  63.2W      944            89
    0000UTC 12.09.2023   12  23.7N  64.6W      949            86
    1200UTC 12.09.2023   24  24.2N  65.6W      948            83
    0000UTC 13.09.2023   36  25.0N  66.5W      940            91
    1200UTC 13.09.2023   48  26.1N  67.2W      940            85
    0000UTC 14.09.2023   60  27.7N  67.3W      943            81
    1200UTC 14.09.2023   72  29.8N  67.8W      946            75
    0000UTC 15.09.2023   84  32.0N  67.7W      945            76
    1200UTC 15.09.2023   96  34.5N  67.0W      952            66
    0000UTC 16.09.2023  108  37.9N  66.1W      955            78
    1200UTC 16.09.2023  120  41.4N  66.5W      960            60
    0000UTC 17.09.2023  132  44.2N  66.3W      975            42
    1200UTC 17.09.2023  144  47.5N  64.8W      991            37
    0000UTC 18.09.2023  156  49.7N  62.6W      996            35
    1200UTC 18.09.2023  168  50.2N  60.0W     1003            26

[NJwx85]

Fairly strong consensus building for a landfall in down East Maine or Nova Scotia. Not really too concerned about New England. That area is used to seeing strong winds during winter storms.

[MattPetrulli]

Tried to take a general picture to best show it, but this is the induation map for a category 1 hurricane worst case scenario surge. Lots of orange/red even for a cat 1. 

[TPAwx]

~175 mile average track error at 120h

[toller65]

32 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Fairly strong consensus building for a landfall in down East Maine or Nova Scotia. Not really too concerned about New England. That area is used to seeing strong winds during winter storms.

No foliage, and trees frozen in the ground during winter - if Lee makes it into the GoM, full foliage and saturated ground will have a significant impact r.e. storm damage

[Wannabehippie]

2 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Looks like the NWS isn't buying the hook west yet, either that or they are downplaying it for now until things get closer.

 

 

 

 

2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

New England is within the cone of uncertainty. That should tell you all you need to know.

I think the NWS wants to get closer in to buy the hook west. Plus with the extra weather balloons they are sending up they will get a clearer look at the upper level winds, conditions.

[GaWx]

For record/trend following purposes, GEFS US initial landfalls: 12Z had a drop to 6 (19%) (3 ME, 2 MA, 1 NJ/NYC) with only one strong left hooking member. Almost all of the rest have initial landfall into NS or via the Bay of Fundy into NB.

Last 13 GEFS runs: 19%, 32%, 29%, 26%, 42%, 10%, 13%, 26%, 16%, 16%, 10%, 10%, 10%

[USCG RS]

Again - Interests along the EC should be monitoring Lee. 

To those who expect definite answers in this range, you all have been here long enough to know the game. Just saying. 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z OP GFS appears to be into eastern Maine / PEI? The 850/925 low track would suggest some nasty weather from the CT/RI border east.

That's New Brunswick, CA, between far east Maine and SW Nova Scotia and the storm is predicted to go from 981 mbar in the frame below to 989 at landfall in far SW Nova Scotia (if one assumes this being correct 6 days out).  

I've seen 970-980 at or very close to landfall, which implies a Cat 1/2 system (likely transitioning to extratropical), based on the SS scale.  A pretty big deal for that neck of the woods.  Anyone from Cape Cod to Newfoundland should be prepared.  

 

 

 

 

[harrisale]

Worth noting that the Bay of Fundy (New Brunswick) has some of the largest tides in the world. A big surge pushing up the Bay could make for some serious coastal flooding/erosion. 
 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1869_Saxby_Gale

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, harrisale said:

Worth noting that the Bay of Fundy (New Brunswick) has some of the largest tides in the world. A big surge pushing up the Bay could make for some serious coastal flooding/erosion. 
 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1869_Saxby_Gale

Thus the timing of any potential landfall vs high/low tide would be extra crucial vs other areas. Related to this, Eastport, ME, has the largest average daily tidal range on the US east coast at ~19 feet.

[Wannabehippie]

51 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thus the timing of any potential landfall vs high/low tide would be extra crucial vs other areas. Related to this, Eastport, ME, has the largest average daily tidal range on the US east coast at ~19 feet.

Next new moon is on Sept 14th, so the tides will be coming down from the astronomical high by the 16th. If it is a little slower, even better in that regard. 

[NJwx85]

12z HWRF is similar to the globals with a likely landfall in Eastern Maine or Nova Scotia imminent. Tropical storm force winds make it to the Cape by Saturday afternoon.

[NJwx85]

12z HAFS-A is hooking left into SNE as the run ends.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

That's New Brunswick, CA, between far east Maine and SW Nova Scotia and the storm is predicted to go from 981 mbar in the frame below to 989 at landfall in far SW Nova Scotia (if one assumes this being correct 6 days out).  

I've seen 970-980 at or very close to landfall, which implies a Cat 1/2 system (likely transitioning to extratropical), based on the SS scale.  A pretty big deal for that neck of the woods.  Anyone from Cape Cod to Newfoundland should be prepared.  

 

 

 

 

Do not, I repeat do no use any sort of tropical pressure scale to estimate wind of high latitude, post tropical systems. Pressures are lower up north and lower pressures in these regions will not be associated to winds the same way they are for storms that are purely tropical in nature and in lower latitudes. I’m not saying a Cat 1 is off the table but some models have been showing pressures as low as the 950’s and 960’s near any landfall and wind will certainly be nowhere near those levels 

[Torch Tiger]

34 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

12z HAFS-A is hooking left into SNE as the run ends.

It doesn't hook into NE...you're assuming 

[GaWx]

58 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Next new moon is on Sept 14th, so the tides will be coming down from the astronomical high by the 16th. If it is a little slower, even better in that regard. 

 Yeah, thank goodness the high tides won't be as high as those of the full moon and perigee of Sep 2, when they peaked at 21.5 feet at Eastport. However, after relatively low high tides Sep 8-10, the new moon will soon after lead to a secondary peak of 18.8 feet Sep 16-17 meaning a fairly average high tide for there. Hopefully the worst of the surge would be close to low tide:
 

https://www.usharbors.com/harbor/maine/eastport-me/tides/?tide=2023-09#monthly-tide-chart

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

It doesn't hook into NE...you're assuming 

It actually does 

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

It doesn't hook into NE...you're assuming 

If you put it into motion it's headed in that direction at a fairly good speed.

[Torch Tiger]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It actually does 

Can you show me the latter panels where it strikes?  Every run I have seen ends with Lee SE of CC

[Torch Tiger]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

If you put it into motion it's headed in that direction at a fairly good speed.

Yeah you are assuming the motion will continue, but there's no reason to think that

[NJwx85]

16 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah you are assuming the motion will continue, but there's no reason to think that

If you look at the steering flow there's no reason to believe it just stops moving NW from this point.

[cardinalland]

24 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Can you show me the latter panels where it strikes?  Every run I have seen ends with Lee SE of CC

i think tropical tidbits goes a little farther and shows the HAFS-B / HFBI just south of nantucket at the end

[Torch Tiger]

11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

If you look at the steering flow there's no reason to believe it just stops moving NW from this point.

Yeah that looks good, 250mb jet near/ over St. Lawrence River which is typical of NE hurricanes

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah that looks good, 250mb jet near/ over St. Lawrence River which is typical of NE hurricanes

I don't think this is going to landfall in the US anymore than you do, but a glancing blow is still definitely possible. 

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I don't think this is going to landfall in the US anymore than you do, but a glancing blow is still definitely possible. 

We'll see. I've always been on board with a swipe or perhaps near-miss of SNE, that's easily doable. The wild solutions, never say never but I'll stay away for now. 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

We'll see. I've always been on board with a swipe or perhaps near-miss of SNE, that's easily doable. The wild solutions, never say never but I'll stay away for now. 

Looks like the 12z EPS mean landfalls in Eastern Maine.

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Looks like the 12z EPS mean landfalls in Eastern Maine.

Yeah and there's still room to go east or west, but that's a decent signal for some action anyway.

[Torch Tiger]

A touch east of ME, and a few wildcard west-hooks.  Not many or enough bend where it counts though, near 35-36N. 

[WEATHER53]

At what time should we be able to see the lessening if the westerly component?

Thanks