GaWx Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Jma came way west 12Z JMA landfalls W NS. KMA hits C to E NS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 I've been following Mark for 20 years. I like his attitude. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 EPS US landfalls: 9/10 12Z: 10 (20%): 6 ME, 3 MA, 1 RI 9/10 0Z: 3 (6%): 1 ME, 2 MA 9/9 12Z: 6 (12%) 9/17-19 (3 ME, 3 MA) 9/9 0Z: 3 (6%) 9/17 (3 ME) 9/8 12Z: 5 (10%) 9/15-18 (5 ME) 9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY) 9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ) 9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA) 9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA) 9/6 0Z: 5 (10%) 9/5 12Z: 2 (4%) 9/5 0Z: 4 (8%) 9/4 12Z: 1 (2%) 9/4 0Z: 2 (4%) 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 GFS hour 132 looks like it's hooking west in Boston. Ugh maybe I shouldn't watch this frame by frame. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Gfs northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Long Island even gets into tropical storm force gust now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 18z GFS OP into Portsmouth, NH 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, cptcatz said: GFS hour 132 looks like it's hooking west in Boston. Ugh maybe I shouldn't watch this frame by frame. Yep right into Boston fanny 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 2 hours ago, GaWx said: How accurate are those two tropical models for track vs the main global models? At least compared to the HWRF/HMON the HAFS was about 15% better on track while it was in the experimental phase the last few years and only expected to improve. So any shifts they show should be noteworthy. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Some initial guidance on Lee's eventual extratropical transition as it parallels the East Coast 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Green is tropical storm force gust, covers most of Long Island 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 18z GEFS will be interesting. if they all try to bend back west then maybe the GFS is onto something. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 10, 2023 Author Share Posted September 10, 2023 Not doing another long post right now but looking at the general trend in the steering pattern across guidance I update my odds to the following: —50% LF risk Atlantic Canada with the bulk of that risk in Nova Scotia. It’s becoming increasingly likely that the second trough pulls this on an extended northward heading. —30% New England (10% SNE/20% ENE) which is slightly more aggressive than the ensembles. —20% OTS because respect still needs to be given to eastward shifts or a sharper turn caused by the first trough. Either way, it’s looking increasingly likely a close call occurs even in this scenario for Atlantic Canada. If the general trend west/more impactful continues through the 12z suite tomorrow, then I believe this becomes something more legitimate. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 eye definitely cleared out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 a significant contingent of 18z GEFS members have that west hook. the low pressure is at 39N 69W at hour 144 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Couple of the 18z GEFS appear to want to hook into central or western Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 a lot of these tracks in the GFS/GEFS remind me of Henri 2021 but stronger and more to the east. kind of an odd/rare track though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not doing another long post right now but looking at the general trend in the steering pattern across guidance I update my odds to the following: —50% LF risk Atlantic Canada with the bulk of that risk in Nova Scotia. It’s becoming increasingly likely that the second trough pulls this on an extended northward heading. —30% New England (10% SNE/20% ENE) which is slightly more aggressive than the ensembles. —20% OTS because respect still needs to be given to eastward shifts or a sharper turn caused by the first trough. Either way, it’s looking increasingly likely a close call occurs even in this scenario for Atlantic Canada. If the general trend west/more impactful continues through the 12z suite tomorrow, then I believe this becomes something more legitimate. Based on the significant increase in 12Z EPS and 12Z/18Z GEFS US landfalls together with the threat largely being within only one week now meaning model trends are increasingly statistically significant, I'm increasing my US landfall chance from 10% back up to the 20% I was at originally. 3 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Couple of the 18z GEFS appear to want to hook into central or western Long Island. Quite strong too with baroclinic boost so could have some hybrid characteristics. Wind field will likely be massive SSTs would also be warmer the further south it hooks as well delaying weakening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 10, 2023 Author Share Posted September 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, cardinalland said: a lot of these tracks in the GFS/GEFS remind me of Henri 2021 but stronger and more to the east. kind of an odd/rare track though That popped into my mind too. Far more expansive system here with ET transition possibly occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Recon is finding some nice pressure drops for Lee, should continue to ramp up overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Lee is looking better by the frame; this is the clearest the eye has been in days, and intense convection has fully surrounded the center of the system. I think he might make a run for his earlier peak if trends continue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 10, 2023 Author Share Posted September 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, mob1 said: Recon is finding some nice pressure drops for Lee, should continue to ramp up overnight. Latest sonde in the N eyewall has this with 108kt winds. Might be close to being back at category four intensity. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 952 mb dropsonde Lee continues to strengthen only 3 GfS members now have Lee as a harmless fish storm The rest bring it to NS or ME or even south NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 57 minutes ago, cardinalland said: a lot of these tracks in the GFS/GEFS remind me of Henri 2021 but stronger and more to the east. kind of an odd/rare track though Track kinda, but Henri was a minimal hurricane at its peak and made landfall as a tropical storm. This could impact that area as an equivalent cat 2 hurricane with a massive windfield. I know it's weenie frowned upon here to bring up the certain S storm as comparison, but it seems that's the most comparable storm in recent history. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Gefs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 On the last few frames of the infrared satellite, you can really see the eye of Lee clear out and become symmetrical. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Appearance has really improved the last few hours. Could be seeing RI 2.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11, 2023 Author Share Posted September 11, 2023 2mb drop in last pass. 950mb now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 The 18Z GEFS US landfalls went back down some from the ~13 of the 12Z to 8 (26%): 3 ME, 3 RI, 2 NY So, last 10 GEFS runs: 26%, 42%, 10%, 13%, 26%, 16%, 16%, 10%, 10%, 10% 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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