nycsnow Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Gfs gonna come northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Gfs gonna come northwest 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Pretty big shift by 3 different models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Icon, CMC, GFS all west at 12z. Maybe yesterday's euro was on to something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said: What's the problem with this post? Once again asking what the problem is considering the GFS almost did that exact same analog lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Just now, cptcatz said: Icon, CMC, GFS all west at 12z. Maybe yesterday's euro was on to something? Definitely went from unlikely to possible. Now we wait 6 hours for the shift back east. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 We'll see if the Euro was onto something. GFS has another major threat about a week later. The tropics are really buzzing. Super Nino says what? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We'll see if the Euro was onto something. None of the other models have the 12z euro set up per se. 12z euro was 24hrs slower Then the current 12z’s and had a deep Midwest trough that pulled this NW significantly more . Other models are still 200 miles East of 12z euro and don’t have that trough digging nearly as close But changes can still be made Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 If you want west pay attention to what the GFS is doing with the following system (Nigel?). It’s very much locked in on a potential east coast threat two weeks from now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 GEFS look west to me . Hour 156 looks like somewhat interesting . Seems to be backing NW last couple frames on gefs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: GEFS look west to me . Hour 150 looks somewhat interesting Yep more hits on the coast and landfall looks to be in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Yep more hits on the coast and landfall looks to be in Maine. Ya looks approximately 10 or so hits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 All I’ll say for those seeking hurricane conditions in NE with these westward shifts is forget about it. Coming further west seems to only happen if the storm avoids capture and slows down allowing HP to build back in somewhat. A storm slowing down over the frigid waters off Massachusetts/Maine will weaken to a Nor Easter gale by the time it makes it to the coast 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1700855345667547416?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg So, the typically overly dramatic JB is predicting Lee still hasn't peaked and that it later falls to 920 mb! I feel this is highly unlikely considering history and its progged too slow speed, which will likely lead to too much SST cooling in advance of the center. Getting pressure that low in this part of the Atlantic is rare enough before even considering potential SST cooling from too slow movement. Plus, the wake from Franklin will be a factor once west of Bermuda. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Looks ready to pop open an eye at any moment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 10, 2023 Author Share Posted September 10, 2023 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 17:48ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306 Storm Name: LeeStorm Number & Year: 13 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 12Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 17:29:30ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.95N 61.35WB. Center Fix Location: 392 statute miles (631 km) to the NE (51°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,728m (8,950ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 956mb (28.23 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 310° at 4kts (From the NW at 5mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 94kts (108.2mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SW (226°) of center fix at 17:25:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 312° at 80kts (From the NW at 92.1mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the SW (226°) of center fix at 17:22:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 99kts (113.9mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix at 17:34:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 143° at 112kts (From the SE at 128.9mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix at 17:35:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and PressureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 112kts (~ 128.9mph) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (47°) from the flight level center at 17:35:00ZMaximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the SW (227°) from the flight level center 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Looking at the ensembles and available models after church, I would still bet money that it is far enough E of New England for no more breezes on land (like what I felt in Lafayette, LA during Georges 1998 or 2000, mostly clear skies, but noticeable breezy) but I wouldn't bet big sums. Maybe 30% chance of sensible weather beyond just fresh breezes in New England, and 15% of a landfall. If I weenie after growing up in Massapequa, I go about 5% on Long Island landfall. Hot towers and a warm spot eye on IR, not yet detectable (but should be soon) on visible and the VDM, I think a slow intensification is happening. Maybe gets to Cat 4. Coupled air/ocean HAFS=A models support call for weakening due to Franklin or its own cool wake after getting back to Cat 4. That model (Andy Hazelton must have worked on it, he is proud of it) has been decent so far.. t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 12z Euro has a similar track to the GFS and CMC except its 6 to 12hrs slower with landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Probably have a 120 MPH hurricane right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 The 12Z UK sped up considerably and is just off C NS at 168 hours at 970 mb. Its SLP peak of 944 mb isn't til 8PM EDT on Thu (9/14). Based on the often conservative UKMET still getting the SLP to fall back to 944 mb, I feel that a second peak as low as ~935 mb is a reasonable possibility, but I still feel JB's 920 mb is very likely too low due to progged too slow movement likely leading to too much cooling ahead of the center to support pressures that low. We'll see: HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 60.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 10.09.2023 0 21.6N 60.8W 954 79 0000UTC 11.09.2023 12 22.2N 61.9W 961 74 1200UTC 11.09.2023 24 23.1N 63.5W 964 74 0000UTC 12.09.2023 36 23.6N 64.9W 957 76 1200UTC 12.09.2023 48 23.9N 66.3W 952 75 0000UTC 13.09.2023 60 24.5N 67.2W 951 75 1200UTC 13.09.2023 72 25.3N 67.9W 952 71 0000UTC 14.09.2023 84 26.4N 68.2W 949 78 1200UTC 14.09.2023 96 28.0N 68.4W 949 77 0000UTC 15.09.2023 108 29.8N 68.3W 944 76 1200UTC 15.09.2023 120 32.0N 67.9W 948 77 0000UTC 16.09.2023 132 35.0N 66.8W 950 72 1200UTC 16.09.2023 144 38.5N 66.1W 956 73 0000UTC 17.09.2023 156 41.4N 65.6W 959 53 1200UTC 17.09.2023 168 44.1N 63.8W 970 47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Great thread 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya looks approximately 10 or so hits After a drop on the 0Z/6Z runs, the 12Z GEFS clearly has the most US landfalls of any GEFS run yet, which had been 8 (18Z of yesterday). There are so many close together in ME that it is hard to count them! I'm estimating 13 US hits (42%) with ~8 in ME, 4 in MA, and 1 in NJ. I'd say a minimum of 12 (39%)(7 ME). I try not to double count. So, a MA landfall followed by ME counts as only a MA landfall for me. Edit: it may be as many as 14 hits because ME may have as many as 9! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Tropical models shifting west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Tropical models shifting west How accurate are those two tropical models for track vs the main global models? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said: Great thread Typically you want that further NW honestly, these adjustments won't cut it for SNE. Canada sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Gets kinda fallish in mid Atlantic late week and that high does not depart to Bermuda but rather off New England and storm gets held up some and further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Definitely getting the core much more stable than it has been. See if we can get convection surrounding the eye and we may start the process of strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 38 minutes ago, GaWx said: How accurate are those two tropical models for track vs the main global models? Good question. I do assume using the GFS to set the conditions near the edges of the nest is related to ending the high res hurricane models early. Not the same model obviously, seeing the HAFS models have ocean-atmosphere coupling the NAM's clearly don't need, but they have to becoming very dependent on the GFS boundary conditions calculated at a lower res. With the HAFs being W of the others when they end, I would want to know how they perform at the end of their runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Jma came way west 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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