cptcatz Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 18z Euro still brings at down to 917 mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, cptcatz said: 18z Euro still brings at down to 917 mb... Just about to post Seeing 918mb on TT at 51hrs down from 949mb at 42hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: The weakening of Lee reminds me a lot of Hurricane Frances in 2004, when it was unexpectedly undercut by shear. I WAS THINKING OF THIS. Very similar situation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 7 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Every weather forum on the Internet would like to thank the 12Z Euro for the weenie run that was desperately needed to revive interest in Lee. A long time ago, I remember a "weather weenie" run of the ECMWF that said that Hurricane Sandy would come into the coast. Then, a week later, it was a $70 billion disaster. And the WPC invented the term "Frankenstorm" but then regretted it! Note: Hurricane Lee recent recon says 962mb and maybe 80 kt at the surface, so the NHC value of 95 kt is generous. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 12 minutes ago, cptcatz said: 18z Euro still brings at down to 917 mb... Every 18z suite model shows intensification back into a mid-high end category 4 at the very least. That is, besides the HWRF and GFS which kinda keep it steady state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, isobar17 said: Those quietly observing know what I mean. The record is the record. I'm sure they know that I keep reiterating that I don't view this as a major threat to the US because I don't. But the beauty of weather is that its fascinating, difficult to predict and fluid, so maybe my view will change. Let's just see what happens and stop derailing. Happy tracking- 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Cat 2 at 11pm... 105 mph BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023 ...LEE EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 59.9W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023 While the geostationary satellite appearance of Lee has not changed appreciably since the prior advisory, data from a NOAA P-3 reconnaissance mission in the storm, in addition to earlier GPM and SSMIS microwave imagery, indicate that Lee is in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The aircraft has been reporting both an inner and outer eyewall, with the outer eyewall gradually contracting in size. However, this outer eyewall continues to exhibit some asymmetry, consistent with modest vertical wind shear still affecting the storm. In addition, the aircraft has reported that the inner-core wind field is becoming weaker, but broader, with a more muted wind profile outside of the radius of maximum wind. This observation is also evident comparing TDR data between the morning and evening NOAA-P3 missions. The peak 700 mb flight level winds were down to 94 kt, with SFMR only in the 75-85 kt range. The initial intensity has been adjusted to a somewhat generous 90 kt for this advisory. Lee continues to move west-northwestward this evening at 300/9 kt. As discussed previously, the mid-level ridge axis currently north of Lee is soon expected to shift to its west-southwest, resulting in Lee slowing its forward motion, and perhaps making a slight westward bend over the next 24-36 hours. Afterwards, an eastward-moving mid-latitude trough is expected to erode this ridge and allow Lee to turn northward by the end of the forecast period. There remains a significant amount of spread in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance on when this turn occurs, and then how quickly Lee accelerates northward. For now the NHC track forecast remains closest to the consensus aids, which have slowed a bit from the prior cycle, and the latest track forecast is a bit slower but near the same trajectory as the prior advisory. While vertical wind shear over Lee appears to be gradual decreasing over the system, the ongoing ERC seems to be resulting in the wind field broadening versus allowing Lee to re-intensify so far. However, once this cycle is complete, reintensification is still anticipated, and the NHC intensity forecast still takes Lee back to a category 4 hurricane in 36-48 hours, in good agreement with the latest HAFS-A/B forecasts, which both explicitly show the ongoing ERC. However, Lee's growing wind field, in combination with its slowing forward motion, could make the hurricane susceptible to feeling the effects of its own cold wake, which the atmospheric-ocean coupled HAFS and HWRF models suggest could begin to occur beyond 36 hours. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows gradual weakening beginning by that time, with more pronounced weakening by the end of the forecast period as the hurricane traverses already cooled sea-surface temperatures from Franklin and Idalia last week along its forecast track. This intensity forecast is in good agreement with the simple consensus aids, but is a little lower than the HFIP corrected consensus early on. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. 2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These conditions are spreading westward and northward and will affect Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next several days. 3. It remains too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, especially since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning tomorrow and continuing into next week as Lee grows in size. Users should continue to monitor updates to the forecast of Lee during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 21.0N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 21.6N 60.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 22.4N 62.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 23.0N 63.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 23.3N 64.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 23.6N 65.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 24.0N 66.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 25.6N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 28.8N 68.3W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 The 00z NAM at 84hrs is considerably south of the 18z GFS at 90hrs. That's a strong trough moving into the NE though. Animation: https://ibb.co/rcBwKjD 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Recon shows this a mid range cat 2 at the moment. The storm clearly ingested dry air. That takes time to resolve 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 9Location: 21.0°N 59.9°WMoving: WNW at 9 mphMin pressure: 962 mbMax sustained: 105 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 The RGB water vapor shows the ingested dry air really well, plus still has shear on the SW side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Video Update on Lee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 6 hours ago, GaWx said: The 18Z GEFS has the most US hits yet by a good margin with 8 (26%) (9/16-7): 3 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY/RI, 1 NC Last 6 GEFS: 18Z 9/9 26% 12Z 9/9 16% 6Z 9/9 16% 0Z 9/9 10% 18Z 9/8 10% 12Z 9/8 10% The 0Z GEFS US hits went back down to 4 (13%) (9/16-8): 3 ME, 1 NY So, last 7 GEFS runs: 13%, 26%, 16%, 16%, 10%, 10%, 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 0Z Euro hits NE NS 0Z on 9/18 at 962 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Recon showing its intensifying. Pressure down to 951. Starting to look better on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Here is the latest 24 hour microwave, looks like it finally dropped the old eyewall and can start on a new one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 28 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Recon showing its intensifying. Pressure down to 951. Starting to look better on satellite. 2nd pass got 957. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Kinda a wonky structure, lots of banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 VHTs are often associated with RI episodes. It’s possible Lee might regain some Mojo soon. From @KeviShader on Twitter: As an incredible coincidence, we got both a VDM and a GPM MW pass for #Lee's core within 3min of each other, with both data sources supporting a (28nm per recon) eye that is, for now, open to the south => persistent SW shear + dry air intrusions but VHTs have increased markedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 At the far edge of the HWRF range, but it has it far out to sea at hour 126. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 18 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: At the far edge of the HWRF range, but it has it far out to sea at hour 126. All models have the storm in that almost exact area moving North . It’s west of Bermuda 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 10, 2023 Author Share Posted September 10, 2023 No change in my thoughts on track this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1700855345667547416?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1700855345667547416?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg What a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 43 minutes ago, qg_omega said: https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1700855345667547416?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg What's the problem with this post? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 New advisory has the forecast secondary peak down to 115kt. So much for that advisory from Friday morning that had Lee never dropping below 130kt through 06Z Tuesday 9/12. Not only the hurricane models but the multiple deterministic EURO runs and sub-910MB EPS members had my expectations sky-high for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 57 minutes ago, qg_omega said: https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1700855345667547416?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg I remember when he used to have some credibility. He has become a click bait artist 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 19 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: New advisory has the forecast secondary peak down to 115kt. So much for that advisory from Friday morning that had Lee never dropping below 130kt through 06Z Tuesday 9/12. Not only the hurricane models but the multiple deterministic EURO runs and sub-910MB EPS members had my expectations sky-high for this one. ..long overdue for a new approach to developing a model. The current models are fair at best. Start fresh!..no more model upgrades...upgrading software is precarious at best, at worst it can be a significant downgrade rather than an upgrade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Icon took a step toward yesterday's Euro with the missed capture allowing the high to build back north and this bending Leer back to the NW right into Cape Cod 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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