Windspeed Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Should be a Cat 2. Still think we'll see some impressive reintensification this evening through Sunday. I still think Lee will make Category 4 again with a big eye once it gets structural issues resolved and the shear is negated. An eyewall will have some work to do to tighten the gradient, but Lee will have a big outflow channel to help as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9, 2023 Author Share Posted September 9, 2023 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: it depends on where the upwelling happened if the storm was in the very warm waters gulf or the deep warm waters south of cuba the water temps would have rebounded already I’m not sure they would have fully rebounded given the track and intensity of Franklin, but I agree that where the upwelling happens matters. Gulf and Caribbean always cook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 It looks like even the GFS ensembles are down to 2 (1 NY, 1 Maine/Canada border) with US landfall. Through hour 180, but I think that shows the only US landfalls the GEFS are going to show EDIT TO ADD: Oops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 24 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: It looks like even the GFS ensembles are down to 2 (1 NY, 1 Maine/Canada border) with US landfall. Through hour 180, but I think that shows the only US landfalls the GEFS are going to show ? There are Six (CT, MA, 4 in Maine). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 This is whole situation reminds me a lot of hurricane lane in the central pacific a few years ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Every weather forum on the Internet would like to thank the 12Z Euro for the weenie run that was desperately needed to revive interest in Lee. 3 20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 12 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Every weather forum on the Internet would like to thank the 12Z Euro for the weenie run that was desperately needed to revive interest in Lee. Let the hype begin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Euro imagines a direct hit to New England from a high end category 2/ cat 3 Lee next Sunday question is what is Euro seeing now that wasn’t evident 12 hours ago and that other models are dismissing ? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: It looks like even the GFS ensembles are down to 2 (1 NY, 1 Maine/Canada border) with US landfall. Through hour 180, but I think that shows the only US landfalls the GEFS are going to show Beer? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Derecho! said: ? There are Six (CT, MA, 4 in Maine). I didn't think any more were happening after hour 180... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 24 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Every weather forum on the Internet would like to thank the 12Z Euro for the weenie run that was desperately needed to revive interest in Lee. If verified that’s a Bob redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Let the hype begin Checking JB's Twitter feed now. Edit to Add. A Twitter met who either once posted here or Storm 2K, a Derek Ortt, who has an MS in met with a thesis about the effects of shear on systems with dry air around them, who knows more than I do, says resolutions below 10 km makes for bad tropical forecast solutions. The 3 km hurricane models follow the storms. Ortt works for a 'WxMan57', they sell products mainly to the energy industry, a big part of their business is tropical forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep euro hasn't been elite in a long time. It's an outlier to the ensembles what do the hurricane models show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Nothing, it’s pure garbage Disagree, the Euro as shown makes sense. Trough quickly swings through, doesn't pick up Lee and ridging rapidly rebuilds causing the storm to move NW It helps how slow Lee is moving. Other models show enough interaction with that first trough to swing it NNE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 The truth is with Margot’s influence to the east and the storm missing the first trough, it could actually and should actually, move further west….Definitely an interesting turn of events. Will have to see if this is a trend or a one off. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 The Euro has been all over the place. Swings between missing NS entirely to the East, and a US landfall almost every other run. The GFS meanwhile has been rock steady with a landfall on NS for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 51 minutes ago, Hotair said: Euro imagines a direct hit to New England from a high end category 2/ cat 3 Lee next Sunday question is what is Euro seeing now that wasn’t evident 12 hours ago and that other models are dismissing ? GEFS has been showing 10-16% US hits for the last 5+ runs. EPS has shown 6-24% the last 7 runs. So, it hasn't been anywhere near totally dismissed by these ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Margot is the key to Lee impacting land. Models that have enough separation between the two systems threaten either Canada or NE. The timing of troughs will depend on which one that is, but if Margot is not close enough to draw this more east once it turns north I like this setup for landfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 31 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I didn't think any more were happening after hour 180... I counted 5 (16%) US landfalls (9/15-17) on the 12Z GEFS with 3 ME, 1 MA, and 1 NY/RI. Last 5 GEFS: 16%, 16%, 10%, 10%, 10% 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 1938 New England Cane 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The Euro has been all over the place. Swings between missing NS entirely to the East, and a US landfall almost every other run. The GFS meanwhile has been rock steady with a landfall on NS for days now. That's not what I recall seeing on the Euro. There were some runs a few days back where it was a hit for the Cape, but in the last few days, it's pretty much been a hit for NS (albeit usually further west than the GFS). I think it's been more consistent than you think over the past couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 48 minutes ago, Hotair said: Euro imagines a direct hit to New England from a high end category 2/ cat 3 Lee next Sunday question is what is Euro seeing now that wasn’t evident 12 hours ago and that other models are dismissing ? Probably a slower hurricane that just isn't getting caught up in the trough, or possibly a stronger influence from Margo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 12Z EPS has ~6 (12%) (9/17-19) US hits excluding operational with 3 ME and 3 MA. So, it has increased again though nowhere near as high as the 9/7 runs and hits are later on average. 9/9 12Z: 6 (12%) 9/17-19 (3 ME, 3 MA) 9/9 0Z: 3 (6%) 9/17 (3 ME) 9/8 12Z: 5 (10%) 9/15-18 (5 ME) 9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY) 9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ) 9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA) 9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA) 9/6 0Z: 5 (10%) 9/5 12Z: 2 (4%) 9/5 0Z: 4 (8%) 9/4 12Z: 1 (2%) 9/4 0Z: 2 (4%) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9, 2023 Author Share Posted September 9, 2023 I don’t think much has changed IMO. Long shot for NE (~5% SNE/15% Cape & ENE) with significantly greater risk for Atlantic Canada (40%) and OTS (40%) squarely on the table. I know people want answers now or to put their flag in the ground, but the truth is it’s going to take more time to have true forecast clarity of all the critical elements determining the long term track. Can’t latch onto any one op run or even an individual model suite yet. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 18 minutes ago, Hotair said: 1938 New England Cane With this one did the trough cut off over the SE or was this a deep meridional trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 I don’t think much has changed IMO. Long shot for NE (~5% SNE/15% Cape & ENE) with significantly greater risk for Atlantic Canada (40%) and OTS (40%) squarely on the table. I know people want answers now or to put their flag in the ground, but the truth is it’s going to take more time to have true forecast clarity of all the critical elements determining the long term track. Can’t latch onto any one op run or even an individual model suite yet. I think Maine has a good shot if the block and trough time correctly, but, of course, Canada remains the biggest landfall threat. We may start getting swings back and forth with the OPs, though, as they iron out the position of turn and trough versus ridge. These could show a western run into southern New England at times as this interaction gets ironed out. It may open the door for hype, but it is what it is... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I don’t think much has changed IMO. Long shot for NE (~5% SNE/15% Cape & ENE) with significantly greater risk for Atlantic Canada (40%) and OTS (40%) squarely on the table. I know people want answers now or to put their flag in the ground, but the truth is it’s going to take more time to have true forecast clarity of all the critical elements determining the long term track. Can’t latch onto any one op run or even an individual model suite yet. You and I know that nothing has changed due to one operational Euro run. Ensembles are the way to go and they've continued to suggest a low chance. They keep showing outliers run after run. Chance still remains low but nowhere near zero. I'm still near 10%. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 I thought I read somewhere this has happened. I might be wrong, but I wouldn't think the op would be an outlier to its ensembles. Quote Since ensemble forecasts began at ECMWF, they have been run at a lower resolution than the single 10-day forecast. This will change in 2023, when the resolution of the medium-range ensemble forecasts will double from a grid spacing of 18 to 9 km – our 15-day ensemble and single 10-day forecast will be run at the same resolution. This is a really significant step forward, made possible with the power of our new Atos supercomputing facility in Bologna, Italy. The extended-range forecast is also increasing from 51 to 101 ensemble members, running at a horizontal resolution of 36 km from day 1 to day 46. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I don’t think much has changed IMO. Long shot for NE (~5% SNE/15% Cape & ENE) with significantly greater risk for Atlantic Canada (40%) and OTS (40%) squarely on the table. I know people want answers now or to put their flag in the ground, but the truth is it’s going to take more time to have true forecast clarity of all the critical elements determining the long term track. Can’t latch onto any one op run or even an individual model suite yet. True. One thing to note though is that euro has been among the most accurate trajectory models for Lee to date. Will be interesting to see if 00z repeats with this westward bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 4 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: In 48 she begins entering Franklins wake, so SSTs drop off. Don’t think it ever recovers. Don't tell that to the Euro LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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