Hotair Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 IR presentation almost suggests a WSW heading now, but it’s difficult to say for sure since the inner core has completely disintegrated (dry air and sheer forces) yesterday we saw RI and now it’s like we’re witnessing Rapid Weakening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 10% (3) (ME, RI, NY) of the 18Z GEFS landfall in the US, the same % as the 12Z GEFS and EPS. I wonder whether or not the recent weakening will make much difference on future runs since they typically initialize as much weaker than reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9, 2023 Author Share Posted September 9, 2023 Maybe close to steady state? Looks like FL & SFMR support 100kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Everyone needs to chill. This feels like pre-KU snowstorm when people start questioning things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Recent SSTs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 958 mb . Just copied your post bc so many more see it when the tweet is embedded Looks like 2nd pass numbers are delayed. But those wind barbs speak volumes as to the current strength of Lee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 The west side of the storm appears to have expanded again the last few hours. It's weakened enough that it's got plenty of room to RI again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 30C EW spike is pretty intense. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Finally got a reading from the 2nd pass of the recon plane. 960, up from 958 on the first pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 The AF recon found 966 on the 2nd pass, but I think they missed the center. They were off course, tried to correct it, but still missed. Will wait for the 3rd pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9, 2023 Author Share Posted September 9, 2023 Looks like the heading hasn’t changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks like the heading hasn’t changed -Where the green barbs are at, the flight was looping back to try to get to the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Based on the IR the weakening has stopped at this point and the structure is improving again. Something weird is going on if the pressure is still rising fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks like the heading hasn’t changed 6 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: -Where the green barbs are at, the flight was looping back to try to get to the center Better pic of the course correction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, Amped said: Based on the IR the weakening has stopped at this point and the structure is improving again. Something weird is going on if the pressure is still rising fast. Probably just delayed reaction to getting better organized. Maybe we will see something on the 3rd pass thru the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 155kt SFMR, also looks like the aircraft got jolted by turbulence at around that time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 8Location: 19.3°N 56.5°WMoving: WNW at 13 mphMin pressure: 963 mbMax sustained: 115 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 IR has improved a lot. Shear looks like it has backed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 958 mb . Just copied your post bc so many more see it when the tweet is embedded Good image of the shear map and it's affect on Lee. I'd expect reorganization and intensification after moves into more favorable conditions to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Lee has been an outlier in terms of RI. Wondering how it stack ranks in terms of RI followed by rapid weakening (RW?). Sans landfall, of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Anybody got any insight into why recons is doing multiple rapid fire passes like they are? I’m not objecting because hey more data the better but this is a bit unusual no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 16 minutes ago, Normandy said: Anybody got any insight into why recons is doing multiple rapid fire passes like they are? I’m not objecting because hey more data the better but this is a bit unusual no? Probably because they know something we don’t . Or they have no idea where it’s going and when the last 60seconds becomes reality. They will know how bad that area or areas will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 0Z UK never gets W of 67.7W vs prior run's 70.1W. As a result this passes much closer to Bermuda vs where recent runs were aiming: HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 55.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 09.09.2023 0 19.1N 55.8W 958 83 1200UTC 09.09.2023 12 20.3N 57.4W 966 77 0000UTC 10.09.2023 24 21.2N 58.8W 970 69 1200UTC 10.09.2023 36 21.9N 60.0W 970 62 0000UTC 11.09.2023 48 22.6N 61.1W 970 66 1200UTC 11.09.2023 60 23.2N 62.5W 968 69 0000UTC 12.09.2023 72 23.7N 63.6W 964 72 1200UTC 12.09.2023 84 23.9N 65.0W 957 80 0000UTC 13.09.2023 96 24.2N 65.9W 952 77 1200UTC 13.09.2023 108 24.5N 66.8W 948 81 0000UTC 14.09.2023 120 24.9N 67.2W 950 79 1200UTC 14.09.2023 132 25.9N 67.7W 951 79 0000UTC 15.09.2023 144 27.5N 67.3W 947 80 1200UTC 15.09.2023 156 29.5N 67.7W 946 79 0000UTC 16.09.2023 168 31.4N 67.5W 944 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 May not be worth much but A met I follow on another tropical board says this will hit a wall at 67W , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Just like the prior two GEFS runs and the 12Z EPS, the 0Z GEFS has 10% of its members with US landfalls. The three occur 9/15-17 (1 ME, 1 MA, 1 NY). They're all big hits with them at 951, 952, and 964 mb. So, the NE US is still nowhere near in the clear, especially with a potential hit being as much as 9-10 days out, despite the chance of a hit being low. These similar outliers keep showing up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 400 hPa upper mid-level flow that had been undercutting the canopy and disrupting Lee's core is starting to ease up. It is still there; however, updrafts are strong as Lee remains an intense vortex with strong surface convergence. It doesn't take much backing down of this shear or having the flow come into more alignment with the vector of steering motion for Lee's eyewall to recover. You can make this out very clearly with lightning data as CBs regain a foothold on the core. The core will still battle some tonight. But shear will continue to lessen through Saturday, I would expect another round of RI by Sunday. I'm not saying Lee will reach its previous peak, but it will eventually be in a favorable environment for several days as it pushes WNW. It should look pretty impressive by Sunday afternoon and will likely bottom back out in the 930s. The gradient may not be as tight, so I don't know if it will achieve Category 5 windspeeds again. It may end up with a large eye, though. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 0Z Euro 192 300+ miles SSW of 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: 0Z Euro 192 300+ miles SSW of 12Z Yeah just noticed this. Long way to go, especially for new England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 12 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Yeah just noticed this. Long way to go, especially for new England. Indeed, the Euro is jumping around so much run to run. It hit NS on the prior run. This run, like the one from 24 hours earlier misses all land through 240 but is more than 24 hours slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: 400 hPa upper mid-level flow that had been undercutting the canopy and disrupting Lee's core is starting to ease up. It is still there; however, updrafts are strong as Lee remains an intense vortex with strong surface convergence. It doesn't take much backing down of this shear or having the flow come into more alignment with the vector of steering motion for Lee's eyewall to recover. You can make this out very clearly with lightning data as CBs regain a foothold on the core. The core will still battle some tonight. But shear will continue to lessen through Saturday, I would expect another round of RI by Sunday. I'm not saying Lee will reach its previous peak, but it will eventually be in a favorable environment for several days as it pushes WNW. It should look pretty impressive by Sunday afternoon and will likely bottom back out in the 930s. The gradient may not be as tight, so I don't know if it will achieve Category 5 windspeeds again. It may end up with a large eye, though. Whats interesting is the lighting around the core shows a westward drift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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