NorthHillsWx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 As strong as Lee was last night/early this morning, it had nothing on Jova. Definitely some SW shear at the moment, you can clearly see it impacting the cloud tops to the SW of the storms main convective envelope. We’ll have to see if Lee has a part 2 phase of intensification and also what internal changes occur as to whether a or not the storm peaked earlier today or if we can see a second max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Doesn't everything have to be perfect to maintain those types of intinsities? Also have seen where they hit Cat 5, a minor thing goes wrong, and the storm is never the same. I remember FLoyd in 1999 was a Cat 4, ingested a bit of dry air and that was the end of its Major Hurricane days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Looks like low level SW shear. Storms can’t easily overcome that since it’s below the outflow. Until that abates the storm is going to have a flat west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 I also think the double wind maxima are just banding since they only show up in the SW and S sides. Thats also the side getting rekt by shear so I don’t think there’s a second eyewall that would survive there but not on the east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Model track accuracy for Lee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Lee isn't looking nearly as good this morning. A little shear on the western side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 The pressure is up to 940 mb this morning, and the wind is down some. Lee is no longer a cat 5. The NHC mentioned mentioned some possible sw shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Can someone here care to explain the rationale for the models initializing using much higher pressures than what recon measured ? Mike's Weather Page @tropicalupdate · 1h Recent models initializing way higher than actual. EURO 983mb, GFS 966mb, CMC 996mb, ICON 999mb. HAFS/HMON seem accurate. Odd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said: Doesn't everything have to be perfect to maintain those types of intinsities? Also have seen where they hit Cat 5, a minor thing goes wrong, and the storm is never the same. I remember FLoyd in 1999 was a Cat 4, ingested a bit of dry air and that was the end of its Major Hurricane days. Hurricanes are fickle. It takes a nearly ideal environment for them to reach Cat 5 status. Warm water is the fuel, but if the atmospheric conditions are not ideal…it doesn’t matter. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hurricanes are fickle. It takes a nearly ideal environment for them to reach Cat 5 status. Warm water is the fuel, but if the atmospheric conditions are not ideal…it doesn’t matter. Most hurricanes only achieve category 5 status for hours... Irma is the longest at a little over 3 days. It just takes a perfect environment to achieve and maintain that intensity. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 hour ago, eyewall said: Lee isn't looking nearly as good this morning. A little shear on the western side? You can see some Southerly shear on the SW side and of course it started an ERC. The 06z HWRF indicates that Southerly shear will be present until early Sunday morning when an anti-cyclone is able to re-establish itself overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8, 2023 Author Share Posted September 8, 2023 This is absolutely incredible 17 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 After looking rough for the last several hours, new towers are going up in the Western eyewall and the eye is looking better again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Structure is impeccable. HAFS B suggests an ERC starting around 21-0Z this evening. Seems inevitable based on the size of the eye. But could see strengthening in the meantime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 hours ago, Hotair said: Can someone here care to explain the rationale for the models initializing using much higher pressures than what recon measured ? Mike's Weather Page @tropicalupdate · 1h Recent models initializing way higher than actual. EURO 983mb, GFS 966mb, CMC 996mb, ICON 999mb. HAFS/HMON seem accurate. Odd? Global models have never done this - they don't have the resolution to deal with the inner structure of a hurricane such as this. Storm-specific high resolution models such as HMON, HAFS, do have that ability. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Some pretty clear SW shear undercutting the outflow this AM on visible sat. Vortex centered skew-Ts show this persisting around the 300mb level for a good 36 hours, so this will likely limit strength until it abates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Anyone else notice a WSW wobble in the satellite presentation ? If the grid overlays are accurate Lee is trending toward the South side of the official track cone at this hour. Not of great significance yet but the models should reflect this on the next runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 ^ Interesting to note that Lee outperformed all intensity guidance model runs, including the new HAFS suite. Keep in mind guidance didn't actually bomb the pressure until the weekend or just NE of the Leewards. It's quite possible that Lee's period of explosive RI in IRL occurred prior to the simulation of a time frame of southwesterly mid-level shear. This shear looks to back off tonight. In other words, Lee may get back that more classic satellite appearance overnight or on Saturday and bomb out again. It should have several days of good mid-to-upper level environment north of the Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Back to a cat 4 albeit high end. 155mph and pressure up a lot from last night 942mb. Lee definitely feeling the impacts of shear. You can see the restricted outflow on satellite in sw quadrant particularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Is there a forecast on when the shear is likely to decrease on Lee? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Wannabehippie said: Is there a forecast on when the shear is likely to decrease on Lee? It should decrease Saturday night and be gone by Sunday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 https://twitter.com/jpatrickwx/status/1700162335355097241?s=20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Icon is way OTS this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 The last four runs of the GFS valid 18z Monday have all ticked ever so slightly South with each consecutive run. Small run to run changes but an undeniable trend. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Icon is way OTS this run. At 180hrs it appears headed for Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Just now, NJwx85 said: At 180hrs it appears headed for Canada? It's west of 0z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Just now, NJwx85 said: At 180hrs it appears headed for Canada? Looks that way. But no mainland impacts for the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Just now, NJsnow89 said: Looks that way. But no mainland impacts for the US You had said way OTS, there's a big difference between way OTS and an impending landfall in Canada. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 The key is missing the first trough early next week. Most of the modeling that had an early recurve had Lee at least partially interacting with it. Also, the ridging over Eastern North America continues to trend stronger on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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