GaWx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 0Z CMC landfall Eastport, ME, on 9/16. Eastport has the largest tidal range of any place on the E coast by the way. On 9/16, the high tide is near 19 feet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: 0Z CMC landfall Eastport, ME, on 9/16. Eastport has the largest tidal range of any place on the E coast by the way. Gefs spread really opened up again threatening the NE even more again. Also did I see the hafs-A jump almost an entire degree south at 0z out to 75hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 New VORTEX message. Couple notes: 28C eye temperature. 14nm circular eye, 1nm less than last recon 158kt SFMR ————— Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 5:26ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306 Storm Name: LeeStorm Number & Year: 13 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 2Observation Number: 28A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 4:54:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.40N 52.87W (View map) B. Center Fix Location: 538 statute miles (866 km) to the ENE (57°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,508m (8,228ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 928mb (27.41 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 330° at 20kts (From the NNW at 23mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 124kts (142.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix at 4:51:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 228° at 131kts (From the SW at 150.8mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (138°) of center fix at 4:51:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 158kts (181.8mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the NNW (334°) of center fix at 4:59:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 62° at 153kts (From the ENE at 176.1mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the NNW (330°) of center fix at 4:59:30ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,056m (10,026ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 28°C (82°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,038m (9,967ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): -1°C (30°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 153kts (~ 176.1mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the NNW (330°) from the flight level center at 4:59:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 The final recon dropsonde says ~925 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 0z Hafs-A is coming in south of 18z by a good but. At 18z it was just about to hit 23N and now at the same time frame its just about to hit 22N so almost 1 whole degrees.......if my tired eyes are reading it right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 That’s a pretty drastic lean to the SW from earlier runs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 We are continuing to see large quantities of lightning in the eyewall, been continuous for the past 9 hours with the number of strikes increasing in the past 1-2 hours. Seen several 90+ strikes per 10 minutes in the past hour. https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?initsatsrc=On&initsatname=GOES-E&initsattype=ir&initcscheme=ir1&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=764&initrange=21.250:-58.250:12.750:-44.250&initloop=True&initnframes=20&initlightningge=On&initlightninggw=Off&initltngfed=Off&initltngtoe=Off&initinterstates=On&initwarnings=On&initlatlon=On&initascatb=Off&initascatc=Off&initascatambb=Off&initascatambc=Off&initsst=Off&initecens=Off&initgefs=Off 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: That’s a pretty drastic lean to the SW from earlier runs . Had a few flirting with the OBX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Interesting (not based on the most recent VDM): 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 42 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Dorian is the most "forgotten" of all the epic high echelon hurricanes. Don’t tell that to the people and towns in the Bahamas, that got utterly flattened 3 yrs ago…there was nothing left to those poor places. Dorian was a total Monster! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Don’t tell that to the people and towns in the Bahamas, that got utterly flattened 3 yrs ago…there was nothing left to those poor places. Dorian was a total Monster! I agree. I don't think Dorian gets the respect it deserves. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Looking at the 00z EURO, I am beginning to wonder if Margot is closer to Lee, will that have any effect on the h5 level? If you compare last nights 00z run at 168 to tonights at 144... Margot is much closer to Lee and the h5 becomes different up top 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Looking at the 00z EURO, I am beginning to wonder if Margot is closer to Lee, will that have any effect on the h5 level? If you compare last nights 00z run at 168 to tonights at 144... Margot is much closer to Lee and the h5 becomes different up top At 168 of the 0Z Euro, Margot is 200 miles W of its 12Z 180 position while Lee is 200 miles S of its 12Z 180 location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: At 168 of the 0Z Euro, Margot is 200 miles W of its 12Z 180 position while Lee is 200 miles S of its 12Z 180 location. Margot and Lee just a tad closer at 192 compared to last nights 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Huh... Euro seems to be insinuating that Lee and Margot will be dancing at 216 Lee is already moving NE on its recurve but Margot is matching by moving NW towards Lee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, GaWx said: At 168 of the 0Z Euro, Margot is 200 miles W of its 12Z 180 position while Lee is 200 miles S of its 12Z 180 location. The Euro is also about 18-24 hours "slower" than the GFS/CMC - lots to resolve before we really have a handle on this one... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: The Euro is also about 18-24 hours "slower" than the GFS/CMC - lots to resolve before we really have a handle on this one... It is the "lots to resolve" that makes for the most interesting forecast discussions! No landfall through 240 with Lee likely not even hitting Canada afterward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: It is the "lots to resolve" that makes for the most interesting forecast discussions! No landfall through 240 with Lee likely not even hitting Canada afterward. True. The Euro was the westernmost model at landfall at 12Z and now it's the easternmost at 0Z, looking a lot like the CMC at 12Z, which also didn't quite make it to even hitting Canada, while the 0Z CMC hits downeast Maine like the 12Z Euro did - they basically flip-flopped. While the GFS moved from a Newfoundland landfall to a Nova Scotia landfall. I know op runs are not to be trusted at this range, but it's fun to look at them... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Ironically, the 0Z UKMET initialized Lee way down at 941 mb, which is much lower than the other major models! But just 12 hours later on the run, the SLP rises way up to 967! This run is pretty similar to the 12Z run with a recurve near 70W: HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 51.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 08.09.2023 0 17.1N 51.8W 941 110 1200UTC 08.09.2023 12 17.9N 53.9W 967 77 0000UTC 09.09.2023 24 19.2N 55.7W 969 81 1200UTC 09.09.2023 36 20.0N 57.7W 973 68 0000UTC 10.09.2023 48 20.8N 59.2W 970 65 1200UTC 10.09.2023 60 21.5N 60.8W 965 68 0000UTC 11.09.2023 72 22.3N 62.2W 961 74 1200UTC 11.09.2023 84 23.0N 64.0W 958 78 0000UTC 12.09.2023 96 23.6N 65.6W 952 84 1200UTC 12.09.2023 108 24.1N 67.3W 950 87 0000UTC 13.09.2023 120 24.3N 68.5W 944 87 1200UTC 13.09.2023 132 24.8N 69.5W 949 83 0000UTC 14.09.2023 144 25.9N 69.9W 944 94 1200UTC 14.09.2023 156 27.8N 70.3W 947 84 0000UTC 15.09.2023 168 29.7N 70.1W 944 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 0Z EPS through 240: not as many hits on US as 12Z run but there still were 7: 6 on ME and 1 on NY. There may not be any more US hits after 240. Nova Scotia gets clobbered even more than on the 12Z. Newfoundland also gets some direct hits in addition to leftovers from some of the Nova Scotia hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 I hope that recon gets there soon. Eye has filled in and is occluded, but lightening is going insane (have a 80-150 strokes per 10 minutes the past 2 hours!). I think it might be an ERC but the latest microwave pass was too long ago (2.5 hours). I’m basing this on the eye becoming a pinhole just before vanishing plus IR looking like a second maximum cold ring is now appearing about 15-20nm radius. If so this might be the fastest nothing to ERC I’ve ever heard of (normally they take 12-24 hrs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jtm12180 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 3 hours ago, Floydbuster said: I agree. I don't think Dorian gets the respect it deserves. Sadly, because it didn’t hit the East Coast. 90 miles further west and it would've been talked about forever… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Jtm12180 said: Sadly, because it didn’t hit the East Coast. 90 miles further west and it would've been talked about forever… It actually did though. Cat. 2 landfall on the far tip of the OBX. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 We are seeing the results of those record SSTs. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Indications of a double maxima on recon, but it’s subtle. Probably the start of an ERC and if so likely the cause of the degraded appearance on satellite this morning: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 The SSTs helped it rapidly intensify but it's never enough to overcome the shear which is clearly having an effect this morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 14 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: Indications of a double maxima on recon, but it’s subtle. Probably the start of an ERC and if so likely the cause of the degraded appearance on satellite this morning: I think so, I don't think a little bit of shear would cause the eye to degrade on appearance and the pressure to rise so much in a such a short period of time without an ERC. Not any signs of one on microwave which could be just due to the low resolution/small core, but also could indicate more of a meld/quick ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The SSTs helped it rapidly intensify but it's never enough to overcome the shear which is clearly having an effect this morning. I read the sheer supposed to lesson up later in the day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 This is an amazing tweet. Technology is a wonderful tool when used correctly. 16 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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