Category Five Hurricane Lee

[Prismshine Productions]

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[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, Sandstorm94 said:

 

 

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I agree with 'Da Buh's point about declaring fish storms when the modeled recurve is still days away, but I unfollowed him, he posts what seems to be intentionally bad grammar in posts where he posts pictures of cloud blobs that don't ever develop. He seems a low rent Joe Bastardi without the political posts. 

 

95L looks to me to be more than a 40% two day development chance, judging by satellite.  Even with the shear from the East.  The hurricane models are mixed on developing within 2 days, HAFS A and HWRF are a bit over 2 days out, HMON and HAFS B close off an organized low inside 2 days.

[Windspeed]

12z GFS op missing the Leewards, however, there was a notable swing in the CONUS setup in 240-260 range vs previous runs. ULL over Florida and with increased heights over New England. The hurricane would potentially get driven near the Mid-Atlantic region. Might get interesting on this run... But, of course, this is late in the medium range. Main takeaway here is the WAR rebuilds into CONUS where previous runs it does not. See if this turns into a trend with this evening's runs.

[ldub23]

30 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

12z GFS op missing the Leewards, however, there was a notable swing in the CONUS setup in 240-260 range vs previous runs. ULL over Florida and with increased heights over New England. The hurricane would potentially get driven near the Mid-Atlantic region. Might get interesting on this run... But, of course, this is late in the medium range. Main takeaway here is the WAR rebuilds into CONUS where previous runs it does not. See if this turns into a trend with this evening's runs.

It does take a  NW turn

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

It does take a  NW turn

Welcome back.

[Castaway]

Still early obviously, but there’s definitely an ominous overall feel to this one imo.
 

Especially being this far out, and with the broad turning in the low levels as mentioned earlier.

This looks like it has a strong potential of displaying a mean buzzsaw representation in the incoming future with a broad robust CDO doughnut .

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Satellite suggests some dry air issues, although GFS analyzed mid level RH shows what should be a nice moisture pouch.

[MANDA]

Long ways to go but here are latest EPS (Tropical Models) and Intensity Guidance.

EPS does show a cluster staying more south and coming further west.  More so than prior cycle.

[GaWx]

UKMET 0Z 168: 0000UTC 10.09.2023  168  19.5N  62.1W   1005   32

UKMET 12Z 156: 0000UTC 10.09.2023  156  20.6N  64.0W  1002  49

 So, 12Z UK at 156 is a bit WNW of 0Z at 168 and stronger. 

 
Here's the complete 12Z UK run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  72 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 14.3N  44.1W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 06.09.2023   72  14.3N  44.1W     1009            27
    0000UTC 07.09.2023   84  14.7N  46.4W     1008            36
    1200UTC 07.09.2023   96  15.7N  48.7W     1007            34
    0000UTC 08.09.2023  108  16.4N  51.6W     1006            30
    1200UTC 08.09.2023  120  17.2N  54.8W     1005            36
    0000UTC 09.09.2023  132  18.1N  58.1W     1004            36
    1200UTC 09.09.2023  144  19.3N  61.4W     1003            44
    0000UTC 10.09.2023  156  20.6N  64.0W     1002            49
    1200UTC 10.09.2023  168  21.5N  67.3W     1000            54

 Looking at H5, there is a pretty strong persistent E coast trough and stationary TX strong (594 dm) ridge. The trough is stronger than it is on the other models. If that were to verify, that would imo likely recurve it away from the SE US like the model consensus is still suggesting. However, from NC Outer Banks north wouldn't be as clearcut. Again, this is strictly per the 12Z UKMET, not a forecast.

H5: scroll down

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2023090312/north-america/geopotential-height-500hpa/20230910-1200z.html

[SI Mailman]

12z GFS brings it within about a 100 miles of the Outer Banks before curving ots.  

[GaWx]

 When looking at the 12Z EPS 228 vs 0Z EPS 240, the consensus is similarly keeping the risk to the corridor from the NE Caribbean to the Bahamas pretty low (~10% based on ~5 of 51 hitting Bahamas) and to the region well east that includes Bermuda significantly higher. The bulk of the members cross into the box that covers 22-32N, 60-70W. (Bermuda is near 32N, 65W.) Hardly any are (aiming) west of 75W. Verbatim, this run suggests very low risk to the CONUS/Canada, similar to the prior run.

 There are once again many very powerful hurricanes on this run.

 

[GaWx]

 The 12Z JMA, admittedly inferior for the tropics, has an obviously worrisome position at 192 in the Caribbean just S of DR.

[Prismshine Productions]

18z GFS smacks the Outer Banks

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[cptcatz]

18z GFS with a carbon copy of Floyd

[Kevin Reilly]

18 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

18z GFS with a carbon copy of Floyd

Actually, that 18z GFS run was slightly further west than Floyd maybe by about 50 miles further west. What is interesting is right before Floydd came on September 17th passing by the Jersey Shore up here it was quite hot and very dry, and well wouldn't you know that is exactly what this week is looking like up this way in the Mid Atlantic. 

[StantonParkHoya]

If it doesn’t pass through the first Hebert box, color me skeptical about EC potential

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

If it doesn’t pass through the first Hebert box, color me skeptical about EC potential

Aren't the Hebert Boxes mainly for S Florida?

[Windspeed]

Actually, the 18z is more of a Hugo hook, just displaced further east vs a comparable Floyd track. Floyd just drove west and turned north around ridge into weakness; no ULL influence. That mid-to-upper ULL over Florida that the GFS is now developing has to be focused upon in the coming week of runs. If potential Lee gets into the northern Leewards, near or north of PR, and drives NW, depending on timing, oh boy. That ULL develops with a New England ridge, it opens up the door for capture and landfall. This could evolve more west depending on how much ridging develops and how well-positioned the steering column plays out. Also that 300-200 hPa upper flow would be dangerous for intensity. But to caution, this is 200+ hrs out. So grain of salt.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Actually, the 18z is more of a Hugo hook, just displaced further east vs a comparable Floyd track. Floyd just drove west and turned north around ridge into weakness; no ULL influence. That mid-to-upper ULL over Florida that the GFS is now developing has to be focused upon in the coming week of runs. If potential Lee gets into the northern Leewards, near or north of PR, and drives NW, depending on timing, oh boy. That ULL develops with a New England ridge, it opens up the door for capture and landfall. This could evolve more west depending on how much ridging develops and how well-positioned the steering column plays out. Also that 300-200 hPa upper flow would be dangerous for intensity. But to caution, this is 200+ hrs out. So grain of salt.
 

Isabel was a similar setup to the 18z in terms of ridging though that ridge built in longer driving the storm NW further 

[MJO812]

[shaggy]

It's actually much more like an Irene impact over lookout and into the sounds.

Doesnt matter it was one op run from 200+ hours out

[Floydbuster]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

There are some on Twitter who are laughing at those concerned about this system. I know it's a long way out and of course we don't even have a depression yet, but I wouldn't be laughing. I actually have a bit more concern about this system potentially moving further west than the typical out to sea track. There are some indications the western Atlantic ridging may begin to rebuild around the time it would be near the Bahamas. Still a long time to watch, though.

[Windspeed]

 
There are some on Twitter who are laughing at those concerned about this system. I know it's a long way out and of course we don't even have a depression yet, but I wouldn't be laughing. I actually have a bit more concern about this system potentially moving further west than the typical out to sea track. There are some indications the western Atlantic ridging may begin to rebuild around the time it would be near the Bahamas. Still a long time to watch, though.

That's the thing, at 200+ hrs out, even 150+ hrs, really, trough vs ridge evolution is fluid and can change over a mere day of runs. If a pattern locks in place, fine. See if it holds. But it's just way too early. I only brought up the 18z because of that cutoff ULL placement. But it may not even be there by tomorrow's 12z. Overall, climatology says, yes, northern motion in the region north if the PR is usually OTS. But not if ridging builds back. We've got nothing else to do but explain why an OP solution is doing what it's doing. It's why we have a thread a week out from reality. It doesn't mean that will play out at all this early out.

[MattPetrulli]

The GFS is a pathetic model

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

The GFS is a pathetic model

That's a huge difference lol

[MJO812]

Here we go

[GaWx]

0Z Euro fits in well with the consensus of the last couple of EPS runs with a recurve near 67W and no land hit though it might have gotten close to Bermuda might had the run continued. It is at a very powerful 941 mb at 240!

[Floydbuster]

48 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z Euro fits in well with the consensus of the last couple of EPS runs with a recurve near 67W and no land hit though it might have gotten close to Bermuda might had the run continued. It is at a very powerful 941 mb at 240!

Anything is possible but everyone seems pretty definitive early on so they may be on to something. Perhaps I should join the bandwagon. I guess I just didn't think the long-range models showed a convincing enough set-up for a system to be quickly swept to sea without at the very least slowing down near the Bahamas. 

 

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Anything is possible but everyone seems pretty definitive early on so they may be on to something. Perhaps I should join the bandwagon. I guess I just didn't think the long-range models showed a convincing enough set-up for a system to be quickly swept to sea without at the very least slowing down near the Bahamas. 

 

 I assume you realize that climo heavily favors a miss of the CONUS from a TCG in the E MDR in Sept, especially with it not La Niña. Climo based odds are somewhere around 80% of no CONUS hit, easily the best bet. However, I assume you agree that the problem this far out, especially with no TC center to track yet, is that nobody knows for sure that this won't be one of the 20% that do hit. It isn't as if the chance were something tiny like 5%. Also, if TCG doesn't occur until the W MDR, then that 80% stat becomes irrelevant.

 Over the next few days we should get a clearer picture. We need to make sure that this won't be a pretty rare long tracking Sep El Niño US hit like Florence of 2018, Ivan of 2004, and Frederic of 1979. Granted, those three were all during a weak El Niño. However, 2023's much stronger El Nino has yet to act much like one.
 
 One thing I will say about the GFS is that it may have a left bias these days based on how it did with Ian and Idalia. Any thoughts about this?

 Edit: 0Z UKMET (goes out 168 hours) is nearly identical to its prior run trackwise though it is weaker. 0Z EPS is pretty similar to its prior couple of runs strongly favoring no NE Caribbean, Bahamas, or CONUS hit.

[cptcatz]

06z GFS decimates the northeast...