Category Five Hurricane Lee

[WxWatcher007]

lol nothing from the NE eyewall. 

[NorthHillsWx]

11 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Hurricane Jova, yesterday, had a very crisp, circular, core appearance.

I cannot emphasize how crazy I think recon would have been for Jova last evening. I truly think that was one of the higher end of higher end storms in our lives. We’ll never truly know how strong it got but it’s structure was perfect and the pinhole eye was terrifying 

[SnowLover22]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

lol nothing from the NE eyewall. 

I checked the raw data file, it seems the data simply stopped transmitting and is missing. I wonder if maybe they ran into some instrumentation issues/communication issues?

[Tezeta]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I cannot emphasize how crazy I think record would have been for Jova last evening. I truly think that was one of the higher end of higher end storms in our lives. We’ll never truly know how strong it got but it’s structure was perfect and the pinhole eye was terrifying 

Jova was pretty good last night but go review Rick, Linda, and Patricia. There is another level the EPAC can occasionally pump out. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

lol nothing from the NE eyewall. 

145 knot SFMR looking at TT.  I'll see if I can find the high density ob exact number.  145 is the top of the scale.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, Tezeta said:

Jova was pretty good last night but go review Rick, Linda, and Patricia. There is another level the EPAC can occasionally pump out. 

It was up there 

[SnowLover22]

2 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

I checked the raw data file, it seems the data simply stopped transmitting and is missing. I wonder if maybe they ran into some instrumentation issues/communication issues?

It just filled in now.... strange the data is now all there. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 minute ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

145 knot SFMR looking at TT.  I'll see if I can find the high density ob exact number.  145 is the top of the scale.

144 knots, flagged.

[WxWatcher007]

Data from the eyewall was backfilled. Peak FL wind of 148kts and SFMR of 141kts. Very tight core as expected. 

[olafminesaw]

Went from 80 mph to 160mph (give or take) in 15 hours

[TheDreamTraveler]

What are the odds we would get storms like Jova and Lee within days of eachother in both basins. This is wild.

[Hotair]

Cat 5 winds in NE as well

[hawkeye_wx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Data from the eyewall was backfilled. Peak FL wind of 148kts and SFMR of 141kts. Very tight core as expected. 

The SFMR wind was even 139 kts (159 mph) in the sw quad.

[NorthHillsWx]

Based on recon and the fact this thing is still going to town, I think it’s a given we’ve just witnessed the most insane rate of RI in Atlantic history 

[WxWatcher007]

First VDM. So much good data here. 

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 0:04Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306
Storm Name: Lee
Storm Number & Year: 13 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 23:35:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16.94N 51.70W
B. Center Fix Location: 590 statute miles (950 km) to the ENE (63°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,543m (8,343ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 936mb (27.64 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 220° at 34kts (From the SW at 39mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 139kts (160.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the WSW (246°) of center fix at 23:33:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 310° at 132kts (From the NW at 151.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the WSW (246°) of center fix at 23:33:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 144kts (165.7mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the ENE (70°) of center fix at 23:37:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 174° at 148kts (From the S at 170.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the ENE (64°) of center fix at 23:38:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 148kts (~ 170.3mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the ENE (64°) from the flight level center at 23:38:00Z

[Nibor]

 

 

[NeonPeon]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Based on recon and the fact this thing is still going to town, I think it’s a given we’ve just witnessed the most insane rate of RI in Atlantic history 

The structure of this hurricane always looked precocious. It had better outflow as a tropical storm than some hurricanes, and it always had symmetry as a whole, even if it hadn't developed symmetry at its center. Sure, part of it was that it's far away so the noted strength of the storm lagged behind the observable reality, but even so, it seemed to have zero growing pains at all. It went through the gears and skipped some. 

Usually it's structural organization that slows ri down, then once that is sorted, it takes off. This thing was cooking with gas immediately. The way that it put up towers and wrapped around from spiral to donut in hours was ludicrous.

 

[Floydbuster]

Just now, Nibor said:

 

 

That infrared loop looks extremely similar to Hurricane Rita in September 2005, when Rita explosively deepened in the Gulf of Mexico.

[Windspeed]

I want to say this is a classic CV hurricane, but Lee is in a league of a rare few in this location of the Atlantic. Hugo, Irma and now Lee in the satellite era.

[NorthHillsWx]

What’a remarkable with this storm is just how well forecast this RI has been

[andyhb]

https://twitter.com/seekndstroy7809/status/1699937840262512887?s=46&t=lVM9qxUr3uVWV5VH8ESp6g

This may be a first.

[hawkeye_wx]

7 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

That infrared loop looks extremely similar to Hurricane Rita in September 2005, when Rita explosively deepened in the Gulf of Mexico.

Sorry, but Rita, at 897 mb in the Gulf of Mexico, had the best appearance of any hurricane I've ever seen.  It was perfect.  The temp inside the eye was 31º, I think, and the dew point was 0º.  I still have satellite photos and the vortex message saved on an old hard drive.  At ~931 mb, Lee is not even close.

[Joe4alb]

Eye is shrinking rapidly, another sign of intensification..

[Hotair]

1 minute ago, Joe4alb said:

Eye is shrinking rapidly, another sign of intensification..

Or ERC?

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Sorry, but Rita, at 897 mb in the Gulf of Mexico, had the best appearance of any hurricane I've ever seen.  It was perfect.  The temp inside the eye was 31º, I think, and the dew point was 0º.  I still have satellite photos and the vortex message saved on an old hard drive.  At ~931 mb, Lee is not even close.

Ha give it a chance.

[MUWX]

Just now, Hotair said:

Or ERC?

I don’t think there is any evidence of that yet. 

[WxWatcher007]

NE eyewall dropsonde

 

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 0:18Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306
Storm Name: Lee
Storm Number: 13 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 08

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 8th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 17.0N 51.6W
Location: 598 statute miles (962 km) to the ENE (63°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Marsden Square: 042 ( About )
 

Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level	Geo. Height	Air Temp.	Dew Point	Wind Direction	Wind Speed
1000mb	This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
944mb (27.88 inHg)	Surface (Sea Level)	Unavailable		95° (from the E)	134 knots (154 mph)
925mb	177m (581 ft)	24.0°C (75.2°F)	24.0°C (75°F)	105° (from the ESE)	157 knots (181 mph)
850mb	918m (3,012 ft)	21.0°C (69.8°F)	21.0°C (70°F)	145° (from the SE)	159 knots (183 mph)
700mb	2,589m (8,494 ft)	14.8°C (58.6°F)	14.8°C (59°F)	No Wind Report Available For This Level

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 23:37Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 45° (NE) from the eye center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 16.98N 51.59W
- Time: 23:37:31Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 17.13N 51.68W
- Time: 23:42:15Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 110° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 158 knots (182 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 150° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 132 knots (152 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 702mb to 944mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 149 gpm - -1 gpm (489 geo. feet - -3 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 95° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 146 knots (168 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 30407
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level	Air Temperature	Dew Point
944mb (Surface)	Unavailable
938mb	24.8°C (76.6°F)	24.8°C (77°F)
936mb	24.6°C (76.3°F)	23.5°C (74°F)
934mb	24.6°C (76.3°F)	24.6°C (76°F)
850mb	21.0°C (69.8°F)	21.0°C (70°F)

 

Significant Wind Levels
Level	Wind Direction	Wind Speed
944mb (Surface)	95° (from the E)	134 knots (154 mph)
943mb	95° (from the E)	135 knots (155 mph)
941mb	100° (from the E)	147 knots (169 mph)
939mb	95° (from the E)	152 knots (175 mph)
937mb	95° (from the E)	149 knots (171 mph)
934mb	95° (from the E)	154 knots (177 mph)
930mb	95° (from the E)	142 knots (163 mph)
924mb	110° (from the ESE)	162 knots (186 mph)
921mb	110° (from the ESE)	176 knots (203 mph)
918mb	115° (from the ESE)	180 knots (207 mph)
912mb	115° (from the ESE)	170 knots (196 mph)
908mb	115° (from the ESE)	168 knots (193 mph)
903mb	120° (from the ESE)	157 knots (181 mph)
897mb	125° (from the SE)	171 knots (197 mph)
885mb	140° (from the SE)	153 knots (176 mph)
875mb	140° (from the SE)	159 knots (183 mph)
867mb	145° (from the SE)	153 knots (176 mph)
858mb	145° (from the SE)	163 knots (188 mph)
850mb	145° (from the SE)	159 knots (183 mph)
841mb	145° (from the SE)	160 knots (184 mph)
829mb	155° (from the SSE)	134 knots (154 mph)
814mb	155° (from the SSE)	146 knots (168 mph)
702mb	190° (from the S)	126 knots (145 mph)

[olafminesaw]

Am I seeing a hint of a double wind maxima? Or just noise?

[Windspeed]

Keep in mind that inevitably, we will get an EWRC. But environmental conditions are going to remain sufficiently supportive of high MPI. So after the first completion, we could see another peak in intensity with the new eyewall. Perhaps even an impressive peak with the third eyewall. Should be an impressive hurricane through the weekend.