Category Five Hurricane Lee

[DDweatherman]

24 hour forecast now has Lee getting up to 165mph as it moves WNW. 

[Joe4alb]

amazing structure....

[DDweatherman]

Any guesses on where this one tops off folks? I'm thinking 175mph if I had to guess. 

[Jersey Andrew]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Any guesses on where this one tops off folks? I'm thinking 175mph if I had to guess. 

That would tie it with Camille which also got down to 900mb at one point. I think Gilbert was a little stronger at landfall in Central America. Would not shock me one bit if Lee sustained at 190mph with sub900 pressure.

[BoulderWX]

Go away for a day and it’s a Cat 4. Starting to get a little concerned for the Cape to Maine even if there isn’t direct impact. An expanding storm (in size) pushing water into those bays. No bueno. 
 

mid Atlantic and most of SNE still look to be OK but ENE, especially cape and Maine very much in the game unfortunately. 

[Kevin Reilly]

6 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

That would tie it with Camille which also got down to 900mb at one point. I think Gilbert was a little stronger at landfall in Central America. Would not shock me one bit if Lee sustained at 190mph with sub900 pressure.

Umm what about Hurricane Mitch?  Wasn't Hurricane Mitch below 900 mb?

[Jersey Andrew]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Umm what about Hurricane Mitch?  Wasn't Hurricane Mitch below 900 mb?

Believe Mitch was sustained 180mph with 905 pressure.

[Amped]

30mb pressure drop since the last advisory. That could be conservative for all we know.

[DDweatherman]

Just for everyones records who doesn't have time to check, lowest pressure in the Atlantic is Wilma @ 882mb (2005) and for sustained winds we had Allen @ 190mph (1980). 

Pressures in the southern gulf and central Caribbean historically have a lower mean/average pressure, hence why all the lowest #'s have come there (Wilma, Rita, Mitch, Gilbert)

Edit to add that many which have gotten to cat 5 E & NE of the islands seem to be 910's range (Irma, Maria, Isabel, etc.)

[eyewall]

All depends on when the ERC starts but I think 165 is a good bet.

[Hotair]

[Amped]

Even NHC mentioned the ADT constraints this time in the discussion. There have been 6 hours if Raw T numbers over 6 now with a current reading of 6.8.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Master of Disaster]

Anyone know if NOAA sent out those weather sail drones this year that penetrate the eyes of these? 

[Normandy]

Alright gentlemen it’s that time.  Let’s make our calls for what recon finds.  I’m going with:

winds: 144 kts flight level

Pressure: 929 mbs

 

[USCG RS]

3 hours ago, MANDA said:

Nice dual outflow channels with northern one evacuating into an atmospheric sink.

Absolutely perfect outflow. 

[nycsnow]

 

[Master of Disaster]

4 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Alright gentlemen it’s that time.  Let’s make our calls for what recon finds.  I’m going with:

winds: 144 kts flight level

Pressure: 929 mbs

 

24mb in an hour? 

[nycwinter]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

i doubt the pressure will get down to 910 and it will not have the top wind speeds dorian had..

[Scott747]

While the thread isn't in 'storm mode' there definitely needs to be a little more constructive posting that's storm specific. Also over the next few days as Lee is producing some eye candy refrain from quoting any imagery with one liners.  Chances are it's going to be deleted. All it does is clog up the thread.

 

[kat5hurricane]

5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Time for another deep dive.

Lee is entering its second period of rapid intensification, and the NHC in an extraordinarily rare move is now explicitly forecasting that Lee becomes a category five hurricane. This would be our eighth cat 5 since 2016--a remarkable period of high end tropical activity in the Atlantic basin. 

Rather than talk about intensity, I want to dedicate time to forecast track. 

If you recall from my post a few days ago, I broke down the different track stages for Lee. 

Substantively, there hasn't been a lot of change in my thinking. Lee is a threat to land, but the signal for a landfall while increasing, remains highly uncertain, especially at this range. 

Stage I--WNW Movement Around Atlantic Ridge
This was high confidence, and it's happening as I type. The current NHC heading for Lee is WNW at 15mph from 16.4°N 50.0°W. This is important to the rest of the forecast. The image is small, but it's critical to pay attention to the western component of Lee in a few days. 

The current forecast, which is high confidence still, takes Lee on a WNW heading north of the Antilles. However, in approximately 5-6 days, we should start seeing a turn northward as the ridge is weakened. 

 

Stage II--Turn Northward
The northward turn is going to happen, but how far west does Lee get before that turn is made? Currently, the guidance has that turn happening between 65-70N. In the last few days, the trend has been more southwest with Lee, and those degrees matter for the turn, because the guidance has had less of a sharp recurve and more of an extended northward heading once Lee turns. 

I think this is where recon will be vital. As recon samples the environment around Lee, it should be able to give the guidance essential information on whether the currently forecasted weakening of the ridge is accurate, or whether the weakening is over/understated. 

This is happening as confidence increases that a trough will develop over the E CONUS and a ridge over the Maritimes/Atlantic attempts to rebuild as Lee turns north. The 00z ensemble runs below look at the steering pattern from 144-240.

You will notice a new wrinkle in these runs--TD 14, which is soon to become Margot. The spacing between Lee and future Margot is important as Margot may prevent the Atlantic ridge from amplifying more than it otherwise would. The greater spacing the greater the chance the ridge truly flexes, pushing Lee on some type of bended heading (NNW most likely) toward land. Every degree of longitude will matter. 

Stage III--The Final Turn
Here's where the E CONUS trough comes in. It's still unclear what kind of orientation and depth it'll have. Should it become pinched off into a cutoff low, you can expect it to "capture" Lee and bring some type of land impact depending on where that capture occurs. If it is shallow and progressive, it should create just enough of a weakness in the ridge to give Lee a last minute kick. 

In my opinion, this is still highly uncertain, but I lean toward the fact that Lee is likely turning between 65-70W, the presence of future Margot preventing too much Atlantic ridge amplification, and the fact that guidance continues to suggest on balance that the E CONUS trough is more kicker than anything else to keep the OTS solution slightly favored at this time.

This could certainly change, however, and I will note that the European model and ensembles have become more bullish on land impacts given a more favorable ridge/trough alignment for a northward turn that doesn't materialize into a steeper ENE recurve like the GFS. 

While the differences are small among the ensembles in an absolute sense, they lead to very different sensible wx outcomes. 

As a result, I have higher landfall odds than I did a few days ago. While they are much higher than what I think the climatological average would be, they are still fairly low in the whole scheme of things. It's still pretty early IMO to discern with a high degree of confidence what happens in Stage III, other than I still believe most of the East Coast of the US is not facing a legitimate threat from Lee. This is New England or Atlantic Canada IMO.  

55% OTS--because of the high confidence that a turn happens between 65-70W, outside of standard climatology zone for a northeast US landfall, the presence of future Margot impacting the Atlantic ridge, and because it is extremely hard to trust a E CONUS cutoff low being positioned and timed "perfectly".

25% Atlantic Canada Threat--because a turn north between 65-70W still puts Nova Scotia in particular in the direct path of Lee should an extended northward heading materialize. Even a last second turn ENE could allow for muted impacts or a direct hit of Newfoundland.  

20% New England Threat--because while my odds are higher than the ensembles would show currently, I still think there's room for the ridge/trough alignment to become more favorable for a westward shift of guidance, leading to a glancing blow. A direct hit in SNE would be less favored at this time. 

I take no stance right now on intensity should Lee become a land threat, other than it would certainly be far weaker than its peak at that time because of cooler SSTs, lower OHC, and potential extratropical transition. 

I generally just browse but I just wanted to say that... you sir, are a treasure to this forum and that your insight is greatly appreciated at least from this guy. 

[nycsnow]

GFS still east, let’s see what GEFS do

[Rmine1]

What should I expect in Brightwaters from Lee? I kid, I kid

seriously, the barrier beaches, and the south shore are going to take a beating even if Lee stays offshore. Franklin caused quite a bit of erosion, and we’re talking about a much bigger storm with a potentially closer track. Hopefully that’s the worst case scenario for the MA/NE coast. 

[Hotair]

Some of the top AI machine learning models are looking for New England impacts from Lee.

[StantonParkHoya]

GFS hits maritime Canada 

[allgame830]

At what time will Recon be in the Hurricane? 

[GaWx]

 The 12Z JMA (an inferior model for the tropics) hit E ME just after hour 210 (early 9/16) while still having SLP in the 950s. (The prior 12Z hit just E in New Brunswick on 9/16.) I'm mentioning it because it agrees with the 12Z Euro on location although it is ~9 hours faster.

[hawkeye_wx]

6 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

At what time will Recon be in the Hurricane? 

Recon planes are almost always scheduled to arrive at the center of tropical cyclones within four time ranges.... 2330z-0000z, 0530z-0600z, 1130z-1200z, and 1730z-1800z.  So, the new recon plane should be in the center of Lee in about one hour from now (2345z).

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

At what time will Recon be in the Hurricane? 

Recon is fairly close. They should start descending shortly but it’ll probably be a while until they get the first center fix in. 

[andyhb]

Basically a perfectly formed inner core on the latest microwave satellite imagery. This is likely going to be pushing Cat 5 in this first recon pass.