Windspeed Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Hurricane Patricia Redux?Nah. The MPI ingredients needed to hit Patricia level MPI just aren't there. But it's most certainly a beast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 31 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Can't get to excited until it gets to 75 West. Almost everything that hits us has to get that far west or it recurves... a lot more variation in latitude than longitude... Simple and to the point relative to NE interests...this 70W recurve won't cut it. I think if it somehow missed the trough, then big trouble for FL.....but otherwise.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 0Z UKMET: stronger but similar track to 12Z run recurving near 70W. Initialized pretty well on position. HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 47.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 07.09.2023 0 15.0N 47.0W 998 52 1200UTC 07.09.2023 12 15.9N 49.4W 994 48 0000UTC 08.09.2023 24 16.7N 51.8W 993 50 1200UTC 08.09.2023 36 17.5N 54.2W 993 56 0000UTC 09.09.2023 48 18.3N 56.3W 993 59 1200UTC 09.09.2023 60 19.2N 58.4W 994 57 0000UTC 10.09.2023 72 20.0N 60.0W 991 54 1200UTC 10.09.2023 84 20.9N 61.7W 989 57 0000UTC 11.09.2023 96 21.6N 63.0W 985 53 1200UTC 11.09.2023 108 22.3N 64.7W 979 51 0000UTC 12.09.2023 120 23.1N 66.1W 975 59 1200UTC 12.09.2023 132 23.6N 67.5W 973 63 0000UTC 13.09.2023 144 24.2N 68.6W 963 73 1200UTC 13.09.2023 156 24.8N 69.2W 957 84 0000UTC 14.09.2023 168 26.3N 69.9W 951 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 0Z Euro 180 is 250 miles NNW of the 12Z run and even a little N of the 0Z of yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’ll interrupt your regular scheduled programming to tell you to hop over to the EPAC and check out hurricane Jova. One of the most intense bouts of rapid intensification you will see and this thing has likely become a category 5 beast Some of those classic high end EPAC hurricanes remind me of a spinning skateboard wheel that got caught in seaweed or something lol Lee appears to have popped an eye couple hrs ago. Confirmed tower action formed southwest of the circulation earlier with it wrapping around full circle now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 0Z Euro 240 slams into W Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 The 0Z EPS' 6 (12%) CONUS hits is the highest yet, beating the 5 hits by the 0Z of 24 hours ago and that was for that full 15 day run. Four hit ME and two hit MA. And that's only through 240 as it appears a couple more will likely hit after 240. This is more evidence that the NE is not safe even though I still consider it a low chance. Nova Scotia and the area near Bermuda appear to get hit the hardest. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 2 hours ago, GaWx said: The 0Z EPS' 6 (12%) CONUS hits is the highest yet, beating the 5 hits by the 0Z of 24 hours ago and that was for that full 15 day run. Four hit ME and two hit MA. And that's only through 240 as it appears a couple more will likely hit after 240. This is more evidence that the NE is not safe even though I still consider it a low chance. Nova Scotia and the area near Bermuda appear to get hit the hardest. At this point all possibilities need to be to be considered. Yesterday Dr Knapp did a great presentation on how things can change quickly with a forecasted track. Hopefully Lee passes OTS without hitting the US and Canadian Maritimes. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Not a ton of strengthening overnight, but improvement to structure, should be stable for a while now and ready to rock and roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Keep it relatively weak for a while…there’s plenty of time for strengthening as we approach the weekend and next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 5 hours ago, GaWx said: 0Z Euro 240 slams into W Nova Scotia. I could totally see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Will be interesting to see over the next 2-3 (12Z / 00Z) model cycles if the synoptic mission data causes any notable shift in track forecast. If Lee travels near or over the impressive cold wake left by Franklin it will be well off peak before it would affect Bermuda. If it stays south and west of that it would hold onto major status longer. Regardless, it will be generating huge waves and swells next week that will be an issue for the U.S. east coast, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada down the road. Not to mention the Islands in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Bombs away… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Cat 2 incoming at 11:00 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Lee is ahead of my forecast; and I thought I might've been too hasty. Think it will be a major by 5PM AST now. The eye is warming fast. Two CBs rotating around should drop pressures like a rock. Recon will find a hurricane undergoing rapid intensification when it reaches the core this evening. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Lee is ahead of my forecast; and I thought I might've been too hasty. Think it will be a major by 5PM AST now. The eye is warming fast. Two CBs rotating around should drop pressures like a rock. Recon will find a hurricane undergoing rapid intensification when it reaches the core this evening. Classic RI satellite signature ! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Lee is ahead of my forecast; and I thought I might've been too hasty. Think it will be a major by 5PM AST now. The eye is warming fast. Two CBs rotating around should drop pressures like a rock. Recon will find a hurricane undergoing rapid intensification when it reaches the core this evening. Yep. This storm is going to be an absolute beaut with a pretty eye too. By tomorrow morning (maybe earlier) I expect cat 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 The approach and transit through 70W will certainly provide high quality suspense to cane fans everywhere 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drstuess Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Structure got a lot better and strong RI signal.Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, drstuess said: Structure got a lot better Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Super impressive core organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 SAR shows 95 knot sustained winds in NE quadrant. Safe to say we have a Cat2 for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Here are my thoughts for anyone interested. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/09/hurricane-lee-minimal-threat-to-us.html?m=1 6 3 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Here are my thoughts for anyone interested. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/09/hurricane-lee-minimal-threat-to-us.html?m=1 very good writeup! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 New advisory out: Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2023 ...LEE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...LARGE SWELLS LIKELY TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 50.0W ABOUT 870 MI...1405 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Lee. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 50.0 West. Lee is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. A slower motion toward the west-northwest is forecast over the weekend. On the forecast track, the core of Lee will move north of the northern Leeward islands during the next few days. Maximum sustained have quickly increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is expected today and tonight. Lee will likely become a major hurricane later today. Lee is forecast to remain a very strong major hurricane through the weekend Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Official forecast is a Category 5. Such Atlantic forecasts are extremely rare. Normally, a Cat 5 just happens out of outperforming intensification, outside of forecasting discussion. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Oh... 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Latest forecast cone calls for maintaining major status through the end of the forecast period and shows a slight bend back to a more Westerly track around day 4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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