Category Five Hurricane Lee

[FlashFreeze]

Hurricanes are no fun. I spend a lot of time in Pawleys Island SC and anything over a 2 would create tremendous destruction and if the storm was to recurve and hit CT here on top of the hill in Barkhamsted there would most likely be serious destruction and the surge along the LI sound shoreline would probably take years to repair

[GaWx]

Last 6 EPS runs (0Z and 12Z only): # of members with CONUS H landfall

 

12Z 9/6: 3 (6%) (ME 9/15 & 9/17, MA 9/18)
0Z 9/6: 5 (10%)
12Z 9/5: 2 (4%)
0Z 9/5: 4 (8%)                                             
12Z 9/4: 1 (2%)            
0Z 9/4: 2 (4%)

 So, the latest run dropped from 10% to 6%. The chance remains low.

[Windspeed]

That makes sense. But is there an alternative possibility, that of potential Margot helping to pump up the ridge to its NW and then leading to an omega block that forces Lee into the NE like was the case with Sandy? (See my post above showing the omega block that affected Sandy).
 I'll repost the Sandy omega block image:

Don't you think that would be a better possibility though if Margot actually drove westward and pumped heights to its NW, versus merely moving NW into the region west of the Azores? Seems like its position there erodes heights that would aid in keeping Lee from turning NE.

[SnoSki14]

Pretty big westward shift with latest GEFS

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

 

Don't you think that would be a better possibility though if Margot actually drove westward and pumped heights to its NW, versus merely moving NW into the region west of the Azores? Seems like its position there erodes heights that would aid in keeping Lee from turning NE.

 

Probably. Is there a chance for Margot to move, say, WNW, and pump heights?

[Kmlwx]

How about keeping the storm thread to the storm...and not this whole tired/old debate about the ethics of finding weather interesting. There's a banter thread, after all. 

[MattPetrulli]

15 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

There are some absolutely sick individuals on this board who wish for this, but hide under the guise of “we can’t impact the weather, anyway”, but if anyone points out the contrary they’re a weenie (reverse weenie?).

Read more, post less. Making a relevant meteorological observation on a model run is not wishcasting. As has been pointed out, there's clearly continuation of a southern/slower trend on 18z GFS. 

Downcasting is just as bad as wishcasting. 

 

[Windspeed]

Probably. Is there a chance for Margot to move, say, WNW, and pump heights?

Or 96L/future Margot get sheared and displaced NE, ending up literally over or east of the Azores, becoming an ET system. That might help with an Omega.

[olafminesaw]

Looks like it's about to start it's RI tonight 

[SnowGoose69]

Hopefully this thing does not hit Bermuda.  Still think its highly likely it'll go safely west of it

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Hopefully this thing does not hit Bermuda.  Still think its highly likely it'll go safely west of it

There's still a cold wake left by Franklin near and just W of Bermuda. Should it track there, hopefully this wake would weaken Lee some.

[TheDreamTraveler]

53 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Well then 

Here's an even better one for the people who are acting like there are no southwest shifts. That's almost 2 days worth of ensembles

 

[Windspeed]

There's still a cold wake left by Franklin near and just W of Bermuda. Should it track there, hopefully this wake would weaken Lee some.

It should weaken quite a bit prior to any potential interaction with Bermuda; however, both the ECMWF and GFS consistently want to model Lee into very large hurricane by then. It might not be a major due to the surface "cold pool," but large swells and a big expansion of the windfield could bring significant impacts there if indeed it heads that way.

[WxWatcher007]

56 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The problem with getting a US strike now in the GFS is its forecast position of 96L, which is currently positioned near the Cabo Verdes. The GFS wants to make this a major hurricane (probably Margot) and drive it into 500mb ridging west of the Azores. This breaks down any block faster and keeps Lee away from any interior CONUS cutoff.

Yep, was just saying this in another thread. It’s a new wrinkle for sure and a great illustration of why a legitimate EC threat remains low. Despite the broader synoptic setup being conducive for a close approach, any troughing that’s “out of alignment” leads to an easterly track. 
 

6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

How about keeping the storm thread to the storm...and not this whole tired/old debate about the ethics of finding weather interesting. There's a banter thread, after all. 

100%. The same folks do this every thread and this place becomes absolutely unreadable. I know I’m yelling into the void but please keep the meteorological discussion here and all the other stuff elsewhere folks. 

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Looks like it's about to start it's RI tonight 

Back on topic, it’s an excellent satellite presentation, and you can see how deep convection is trying to wrap around the center. Probably not there yet on the western side, but trying.

Latest microwave imagery mostly missed but you could see nice spiral banding in earlier images. It has already achieved RI in going from a depression to category one hurricane, btw. 

[Kevin Reilly]

Definitely looks like the storm transitions from a small powerful compact storm to a much wider wind field of a tropical system that transitions into a large ocean storm this is a typical scenario as we head further north later in the year as the systems interact with troughs and high-pressure ridges, but this is probably know for most kind of Hurricane to transition into mid latitude storm 101 if you will. 

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Definitely looks like the storm transitions from a small powerful compact storm to a much wider wind field of a tropical system that transitions into a large ocean storm this is a typical scenario as we head further north later in the year as the systems interact with troughs and high-pressure ridges, but this is probably know for most kind of Hurricane to transition into mid latitude storm 101 if you will. 

The inevitable ERCs will expand the wind field as well. This is likely to be a big time wave producer along the East Coast.

[MattPetrulli]

Skull

[chris21]

1 hour ago, FlashFreeze said:

Hurricanes are no fun. I spend a lot of time in Pawleys Island SC and anything over a 2 would create tremendous destruction and if the storm was to recurve and hit CT here on top of the hill in Barkhamsted there would most likely be serious destruction and the surge along the LI sound shoreline would probably take years to repair

Might be getting ahead of yourself here.

[NJwx85]

https://x.com/nycstormchaser/status/1699564711287681232?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

[GaWx]

18Z Euro 72 is ~75 miles NE of the 12Z at 78

[MattPetrulli]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

https://x.com/nycstormchaser/status/1699564711287681232?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

Be careful, you're a wishcaster for posting that.

But seriously, this trend reminds me a bit of Henri and Florence when they were pretty cleanly forecast OTS and that didn't happen. It's a game of trends, am also extremely curious to see if any trough interactions creates any kind of PRE event.

[Buddy1987]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

https://x.com/nycstormchaser/status/1699564711287681232?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

Pretty wild to see that and the sw trend the last couple of model cycles here. Thanks for sharing. 

[cardinalland]

an interesting complication is that a slower/more south storm may have more  time to be pulled northeast by a trough, as opposed to a faster moving storm. the 18z GFS kind of shows how this could happen

[nycsnow]

 

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

18Z Euro 72 is ~75 miles NE of the 12Z at 78

The important frames are way further out when it interacts with the ridge. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

https://x.com/nycstormchaser/status/1699564711287681232?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

Joe Bastardi had a similar themed post this afternoon.  I am not as familiar with Isabella.  I now tend to dismiss JB on Twitter (but still check his feed) as prone to hype.  I'm not sure how to balance the 'well, there is a finite chance Lee does make it to CONUS' and view driven retweet fodder.  I could be wrong, there isn't a satellite eye I can see (are there any loops of the kind of products Navy Monterey site has?) but my sense is motion is more NW still than WNW. 

 

[Amped]

The Hurricane models show it strengthening very little until tomorrow afternoon when convection wraps around the north side, then it's bombs away, especially overnight tomorrow.

[NorthHillsWx]

I’ll interrupt your regular scheduled programming to tell you to hop over to the EPAC and check out hurricane Jova. One of the most intense bouts of rapid intensification you will see and this thing has likely become a category 5 beast 

[jdj5211]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1699562532397363291?s=46&t=zyQ9rqocG2LFGxEY9pKqYg

Hard to argue that trend. Wow.


.

[Kevin Reilly]

49 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’ll interrupt your regular scheduled programming to tell you to hop over to the EPAC and check out hurricane Jova. One of the most intense bouts of rapid intensification you will see and this thing has likely become a category5 beast 

Hurricane Patricia Redux?