Category Five Hurricane Lee

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

The speed of Lee is a major reason why. The slower it moves the more time for ridging to build to its northeast. 

No other models are like the Euro. Expect it to cave like it usually does now.

[Sportybx]

The fact that these models are flip flopping 5 days out . We won’t know till Friday . Exactly where he makes his turn will determine where he hits . Anything past 70 will be interesting . Anything before it’s mass or Canada area 

[olafminesaw]

Two distinct camps between the faster members that miss right and the slower members that have the hook to the left. The thing is now many of even the slower members miss as they get too far east first and don't make as dramatic a turn as they were yesterday. This is the case with the EPS as well with the OP being a bit of an outlier. Coastal Maine is still in play though and effects could certainly be felt in eastern MA due to the size of the storm

[NeonPeon]

Is Lee still ingesting dry air? It still seems intent on trying to make a small eye, within a much larger circulation, but it can't do that or close the enormous eye wall either. The outflow looks fantastic, and it doesn't look that dry on the water vapor but it can't seem to fix the banding. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Is Lee still ingesting dry air? It still seems intent on trying to make a small eye, within a much larger circulation, but it can't do that or close the enormous eye wall either. The outflow looks fantastic, and it doesn't look that dry on the water vapor but it can't seem to fix the banding. 

It seems it’s stuck in a perpetual ERC because neither eye wall will take over or completely . Not sure what needs to happen but all I can say is whatever it injested Saturday am really Seems to have messed it up . It’s been under rocket fuel and can’t sort itself out 

[NorthHillsWx]

One thing about Lee, hurricane force winds now extend extremely far from center. Recon is finding this thing has exploded in size. It’s probably a high end cat 2 now (FL 105-108 kts, SFMR 90 kts) tho there is evidence to keep it a 3 for posterity at least but wow at the expansion of hurricane force winds

[NJwx85]

37 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It seems it’s stuck in a perpetual ERC because neither eye wall will take over or completely . Not sure what needs to happen but all I can say is whatever it injested Saturday am really Seems to have messed it up . It’s been under rocket fuel and can’t sort itself out 

The outflow has really improved the last few hours and the eye appears to be clearing out some. The HAFS is predicting a more or less steady state system until Saturday morning when it starts to feel the cooler SST.

[RevWarReenactor]

3 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Two distinct camps between the faster members that miss right and the slower members that have the hook to the left. The thing is now many of even the slower members miss as they get too far east first and don't make as dramatic a turn as they were yesterday. This is the case with the EPS as well with the OP being a bit of an outlier. Coastal Maine is still in play though and effects could certainly be felt in eastern MA due to the size of the storm

I don't know; latest models have the center clearing eastern MA by about 500 miles. Sure-it can expand, but a Hurricane 500 miles away isn't going to deliver much in terms of winds and rain usually. Hurricane Isabel being the exception to the rule. 

[NorthHillsWx]

7 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I don't know; latest models have the center clearing eastern MA by about 500 miles. Sure-it can expand, but a Hurricane 500 miles away isn't going to deliver much in terms of winds and rain usually. Hurricane Isabel being the exception to the rule. 

Isabel is such an underrated storm. That’s the high tide mark for a mid-Atlantic purely tropical storm in my lifetime. I think the storm beginning with an “S” made many forget about Isabel North of Maryland

[RU848789]

The 6Z Euro ensembles looked like they moved back east somewhat relative to last night's 0Z run, but as far as I know the 6Z operational only goes out to 90 hours, so I'm guessing we'll have to wait for 12Z to see if 0Z was a blip or not.  Would certainly be interesting if the Euro is on to a westward shift about 5 days out vs. the other models, paralleling, somewhat, the Euro sniffing out Sandy's NW hook into NJ (although that was a monster coup, 7 days out).  

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL13

 

[yoda]

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
...HAZARDOUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BEACHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALL WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 65.9W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada 
should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service

[yoda]

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2023

GOES-16 satellite and radar images from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
indicate that Lee is trying to consolidate into one large eyewall,
but the eye remains obscured with fragments of the old eyewall
structures.  Peak 700-mb flight-level winds were about 110 kt, 0.5
km radar estimates were near 121 kt and surface SFMR estimates were
about 90 kt, which could be under sampled with such a large
radius of maximum winds.  The initial wind speed is held at 100 kt
as a compromise of the aircraft estimates.

Lee is still moving slowly west-northwestward (300/5 kt), with
mid-level ridging established to the north and east of the
hurricane. This steering pattern is expected to change during the
next couple of days as a deep-layer trough moves across the eastern
United States and produces a weakness in this ridge. As a result,
Lee is forecast to turn northward and gradually accelerate during
the middle and latter parts of this week. The track guidance
envelope shows little cross-track spread during the first 3 days of
the forecast period, and this portion of the NHC forecast is fairly
similar to the previous one. While the core of the hurricane is
forecast to pass west of Bermuda, the large wind field of the storm
is likely to bring wind impacts to the island on Thursday,
prompting the Bermuda Weather Service to issue a Tropical Storm
Watch.  The latest NHC track was a compromise between the 6z GEFS
and ECMWF ensembles in the days 4/5 time frame, as it is still too
early to know if any leftward bend will occur as Lee approaches
North America.

No significant change in strength is expected in the near-term with
Lee due to its current structure and large wind field.  Going
forward, the large hurricane appears likely to begin upwelling
cooler waters along its path, and in a few days it will encounter
the cool wake left behind by recent western Atlantic hurricanes.
Thus, gradual weakening is forecast through midweek. Later, the
aforementioned trough is expected to produce stronger deep-layer
shear over Lee, and the hurricane is forecast to move over
significantly cooler waters as it passes north of the Gulf Stream.
As a result, more significant weakening is shown at days 4-5, along
with completion of its extratropical transition. Despite the
forecast weakening, it is important to note that the expanding wind 
field of Lee will produce impacts well away from the storm center.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week.

2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, rainfall, and high
surf impacts to Bermuda later this week, and a Tropical Storm Watch
has been issued for the island.

3. It remains too soon to know what level of additional impacts Lee
might have along the northeastern U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada
late this week and this weekend.  However, since wind and rainfall
hazards will extend well away from the center as Lee grows in size,
users should continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast during
the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 24.3N  65.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 24.8N  66.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 25.9N  67.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 27.4N  67.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 29.4N  68.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  15/0000Z 31.6N  68.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 34.3N  67.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 40.7N  66.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 45.3N  65.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bann/Blake/Gallina

[yoda]

 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is a big outlier right now. GFS and GEFS shifted east.

1. The 6Z GEFS was pretty similar to the 0Z GEFS except there was actually a slight increase vs 0Z up to 5 US landfalls vs 4 including 2 MA hits vs 0 MA on the 0Z. So, I didn't see the E shift on the 6Z GEFS vs 0Z that you saw although the 6Z GEFS (19% US hits) is still not as active as the EPS (31%+).

2. Whereas the 6Z Euro shifted slightly E of the 0Z Euro, the 6Z EPS actually shifted even further W vs the 0Z EPS. Check out MA, for which the 0Z EPS had 4 landfalls. The 6Z EPS has ~8 MA landfalls in addition to 2 on the RI/MA border and another offshore ready to come in as of the end of the run! So, whereas the 0Z EPS had 4 US landfalls outside of ME, the 6Z EPS has ~11 of those!

[DDweatherman]

Just now, GaWx said:

1. The 6Z GEFS was pretty similar to the 0Z GEFS except there was actually a slight increase vs 0Z up to 5 US landfalls vs 4 including 2 MA hits vs 0 MA on the 0Z. So, I didn't see the E shift on the 6Z GEFS vs 0Z that you saw although the 6Z GEFS (19% US hits) is still not as active as the EPS (31%+).

2. Whereas the 6Z Euro shifted slightly E if the 0Z Euro, the 6Z EPS actually shifted even further E vs the 0Z EPS. Check out MA, for which the 0Z EPS had 4 landfalls. The 6Z EPS has ~8 MA landfalls in addition to 2 on the RI/MA border and another offshore ready to come in as of the end of the run! So, whereas the 0Z EPS had 4 US landfalls outside of ME, the 6Z EPS has a whopping 11 of those!

I think for #2 you mean even further west? 8 LF's vs 4. 

[olafminesaw]

Three distinct clusters. So when combined with the GEFS something  like, 15-20% chance of hooking into MA, 40% chance, landfall on the northern coast of Maine, 40% chance of missing right and hitting NS.

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I think for #2 you mean even further west? 8 LF's vs 4. 

Yes, thank you. I just corrected it. So, whereas the 0Z EPS had only 8% hit the US outside of ME, the 6Z EPS had 22%! That is by far the highest % with US landfalls outside ME for any EPS.

[RU848789]

NHC is not ready to jump onto the Euro solution at 0Z, probably because the gap has tightened between the other globals and the Euro (and we have improved hurricane models like the HAFS-B) since Sandy's coup in 2012, plus the Euro has stumbled for a few recent storms. Here's what they said in their latest discussion:

The latest NHC track was a compromise between the 6z GEFS and ECMWF ensembles in the days 4/5 time frame, as it is still too early to know if any leftward bend will occur as Lee approaches North America.

[NJwx85]

12z GFS is about 50 miles or so SW of the previous run at 90hrs. It's decently slower and on a trajectory for a landfall in extreme Eastern Maine.

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS has one US landfall on Cape Cod vs the 2 MA landfalls on the 6Z. But there are ~7 on ME for a total of ~8 (26%), an increase over the 5 total US landfalls of the 6Z and the 4 total US of the 0Z.

[WEATHER53]

So it seems the cessation of a westerly component occurs because the trough weakens the high.

What if the high is not weakened?

[olafminesaw]

The Euro no longer is trying to deepen back to a cat 4, so we'll see if that has any effect on the track

[NJwx85]

It really is astounding 

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The Euro no longer is trying to deepen back to a cat 4, so we'll see if that has any effect on the track

The 12z Friday position is nearly identical to the 00z run.

[NJwx85]

12z Euro is slightly West of the 00z run at 96hrs. Close enough to bring strong winds to the New England coast.

[GaWx]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

12z Euro is slightly West of the 00z run at 96hrs. Close enough to bring strong winds to the New England coast.

Do you mean slightly east? It looks like to me that the 12Z Euro at 96 is barely E of the 0Z Euro at 108.

[brooklynwx99]

ECMWF is east of 00z

[NJwx85]

Euro with landfall in Eastern Maine at 120hrs

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

ECMWF is east of 00z

I was comparing to yesterday's 12z run. It's West of that but East of 00z.

[RU848789]

12Z Euro landfall about 100 miles NE of 0Z, so it's looking like 0Z was a bit of a blip and not a trend...

[NorthHillsWx]

Regardless where/if this comes ashore, I think the calling card will be rain and inland flooding. There’s really no baroclinic forcing or jet streak to enhance winds during the ET transition like some of the storms that hit up north and models are showing a rapid and normal decay of winds once this transitions over the wall of the Gulf Stream. Add into that, wind shear really peaks at 20-30kts by the time this is going by Bermuda and you have a rapidly weakening system before it hits the cold water north of the GS. Also, for a high latitude storm, this will be comparatively crawling in terms of forward speed (which will further decrease the wind threat). However, that slower than normal forward speed and tge potential for a bit of a pivot means that heavy tropical moisture will be thrust into the NW side of the system (normal during ET transition) and areas not accustomed to these tropical rain rates will have a prolonged rainstorm. I really think inland flooding with this could be significantly worse than many recent high latitude storms that were flying through when they impacted land. Though I think the wind threat has decreased significantly since even yesterday