olafminesaw Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Meanwhile Lee is looking much improved, if it can continue to wrap convection around the eye it may take off again sooner rather than later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 51 minutes ago, Hotair said: 1938 New England Cane I mean that is to a tee the Euro remarkable resemblance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 The more I analyze the Euro and the current setting...Its solution makes sense and I see how it could play out. Currently The following things are happening: - Lee is a powerful major hurricane that is dealing with shear, but is also connected to a poleward outflow jet that is providing excellent divergence (thus the explosive convection). - Margot is a weak disorganized TS that is being substantially sheared by Lee's outflow jet. This shear will only strengthen tomorrow once Lee intensifies further. Convection will always keep Margot's low east because of said shear. This will increase the distance between them and is why the Euro solution occurs. Looking forward to the models runs later today. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 The most likely scenario is it gets caught up in the first trough and hits eastern Canada. That's where the ensembles and most op runs stand and that's what I'm going with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The most likely scenario is it gets caught up in the first trough and hits eastern Canada. That's where the ensembles and most op runs stand and that's what I'm going with. FOR NOW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 5 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: In 48 she begins entering Franklins wake, so SSTs drop off. Don’t think it ever recovers. Looking at current SSTs and the NHC path, SSTs don't fall below 29C until after 120 hours. That's when the cooler Franklin wake would have a significant impact. So, until then, they're mainly 29-30C, plenty warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The most likely scenario is it gets caught up in the first trough and hits eastern Canada. That's where the ensembles and most op runs stand and that's what I'm going with. Still a long time to go with this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Looks like the shear is finally abating, I wouldn’t be shocked to see another explosive round of intensification in the next 48 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Could someone kindly post the most recent wave height map? Gonna be in VA Beach next weekend and would love to see from some of the models what it’s forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBrosForever Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Every weather forum on the Internet would like to thank the 12Z Euro for the weenie run that was desperately needed to revive interest in Lee. I was wondering when this was going to happen. Can't we just go with the 12Z GFS instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 16 minutes ago, SnowBrosForever said: I was wondering when this was going to happen. Can't we just go with the 12Z GFS instead? Or other 12Zs, like the inferior JMA, which recurves sharply and never even gets close to Canada. Or the (inferior?) KMA, which skims NS and then hits Newfoundland. Or the ICON/CMC, which hit NS. Or the quite inferior NAVGEM, which heads toward Newfoundland. The Euro is the only one of these 7 op models that hits the NE and the only other run to do so was the 12Z of 9/7. But then again why go with any operational in particular? Why do we need a definite yes or no when neither is there this far out and instead why not just go with the idea that Lee bears watching for the continued small chance of a NE hit and a bigger chance for a Canada hit? This is a forecasting discussion. We have these discussions because of the uncertainty. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 The last two UK runs have Lee get as far W as 67.7W. More importantly imo they both don't have the lowest SLP until 0Z on 9/16, when it gets down to the low 940s on both runs. That's quite low for the usually conservative UK and tells me that a significantly stronger storm than the current strength is quite possible even going out a good number of days from now. 12Z HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 57.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 09.09.2023 0 19.8N 57.7W 955 79 0000UTC 10.09.2023 12 20.6N 58.9W 961 71 1200UTC 10.09.2023 24 21.4N 60.3W 957 80 0000UTC 11.09.2023 36 22.2N 61.4W 953 82 1200UTC 11.09.2023 48 22.8N 62.6W 953 84 0000UTC 12.09.2023 60 23.2N 64.0W 948 85 1200UTC 12.09.2023 72 23.5N 65.4W 949 90 0000UTC 13.09.2023 84 23.8N 66.3W 942 90 1200UTC 13.09.2023 96 24.1N 67.3W 953 74 0000UTC 14.09.2023 108 24.6N 67.5W 946 77 1200UTC 14.09.2023 120 25.8N 67.7W 952 76 0000UTC 15.09.2023 132 27.3N 67.3W 947 79 1200UTC 15.09.2023 144 28.8N 67.2W 944 81 0000UTC 16.09.2023 156 30.3N 66.7W 941 70 1200UTC 16.09.2023 168 32.2N 66.5W 949 68 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: I mean that is to a tee the Euro remarkable resemblance. At first glance the track is , but the major exception as New Englanders know , is Except for the euro moving 3x slower and giving Lee much more time to weaken over cooler waters . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 962 MB on the latest aircraft recon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 2 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Meanwhile Lee is looking much improved, if it can continue to wrap convection around the eye it may take off again sooner rather than later I think RI is done for Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: I mean that is to a tee the Euro remarkable resemblance. No, it isn't. 1938 went into w LI and central CT....Euro is like a Bob track. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 The 18Z GEFS has the most US hits yet by a good margin with 8 (26%) (9/16-7): 3 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY/RI, 1 NC Last 6 GEFS: 18Z 9/9 26% 12Z 9/9 16% 6Z 9/9 16% 0Z 9/9 10% 18Z 9/8 10% 12Z 9/8 10% 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Working through an ERC at the moment 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 26 minutes ago, GaWx said: The 18Z GEFS has the most US hits yet by a good margin with 8 (26%) (9/16-7): 3 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY/RI, 1 NC Last 6 GEFS: 18Z 9/9 26% 12Z 9/9 16% 6Z 9/9 16% 0Z 9/9 10% 18Z 9/8 10% 12Z 9/8 10% Hmmmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 2 hours ago, GaWx said: But then again why go with any operational in particular? Why do we need a definite yes or no when neither is there this far out and instead why not just go with the idea that Lee bears watching for the continued small chance of a NE hit and a bigger chance for a Canada hit? This is a forecasting discussion. We have these discussions because of the uncertainty. Eh, it's a Snow Weenie perspective, where consensus models don't exist and it's some sort of titanic picking-sides model fight. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 There is certainly a chance this still hits as far back as the cape...just because I don't favor that, it is a viable outcome. I'm not pushing any agenda. Not sure what that was all about. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There is certainly a chance this still hits as far back as the cape...just because I don't favor that, it is a viable outcome. I'm not pushing any agenda. Not sure what that was all about. Personally, I will go with there is a long way to go and the eastern seaboard, especially N MA and NE need to keep an eye on it. Likewise, I will actually disagree with you regarding the potential for RI. I do believe it is there as the structure is actually not bad, despite the beating it has taken. Just my 2 cents. As far as you having an agenda? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Personally, I will go with there is a long way to go and the eastern seaboard, especially N MA and NE need to keep an eye on it. Likewise, I will actually disagree with you regarding the potential for RI. I do believe it is there as the structure is actually not bad, despite the beating it has taken. Just my 2 cents. As far as you having an agenda? Yea, I could be wrong on the RI part...much less confidence in that than the favoring NS over US part. I'm not saying it won't intensify...it may make cat 4 again, I just think it will be more gradual. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 The Atlantic cane pinball machine is quite active right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Does look to be getting more organized see if we can fire off some convection to kick start the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 49 minutes ago, isobar17 said: I meant no disrespect with my post. Just noticed a bunch of consecutive posts with a specific tone and pointed it out. Thank you for your opinion… carry on I'm not sure it is fair to label an opinion as an agenda, or banter. Sorry, it is sure to be a cat 5 again by tomorrow AM and be in Manhattan by next weekend. Is that better? Lol An agenda implies a vested interest or ulterior motive...like trying to get clicks or followers. Downplaying potentially dramatic weather is not the way to do it from my perspective of a weather hobbyist with a weather blog. Makes zero sense 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Does look to be getting more organized see if we can fire off some convection to kick start the process. On three passes thru the center, NOAA recon flight got 2 readings of 962 and one of 961. So any intensification is not showing up yet on the central pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Wannabehippie said: On three passes thru the center, NOAA recon flight got 2 readings of 962 and one of 961. So any intensification is not showing up yet on the central pressure. Better organized does not mean intensification has begun. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Recon shows this a mid range cat 2 at the moment. The storm clearly ingested dry air. That takes time to resolve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 The weakening of Lee reminds me a lot of Hurricane Frances in 2004, when it was unexpectedly undercut by shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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