Category Five Hurricane Lee

[GaWx]

The 0Z EPS had another drop in US landfalls to the lowest of the last 5 runs:

9/9 0Z: 3 (6%) 9/17 (3 ME)
9/8 12Z: 5 (10%) 9/15-18 (5 ME) 
9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY)
9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ)
9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA)
9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA)
9/6 0Z: 5 (10%)
9/5 12Z: 2 (4%)
9/5 0Z: 4 (8%) 
9/4 12Z: 1 (2%) 
9/4 0Z: 2 (4%)

[yoda]

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

Lee seems to be recovering from the effects of the strong 
southwesterly shear.  The central dense overcast has expanded, with 
periodic bursts of deep convection and increased lightning activity 
near the center.  The most recent geostationary satellite infrared 
images even seem to be hinting a return of Lee's eye.  Overnight, 
there were multiple reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft of mesovorticies orbiting the closed, 
elliptical eyewall.  Due to safety considerations, the aircraft were 
unable, at times, to penetrate the eyewall and thus, we have no new 
in-situ information about the intensity or minimum central 
pressure.  The initial intensity is held at a somewhat uncertain 
100 kt and NOAA and Air Force Reserve missions are scheduled to 
investigate Lee later this morning.

Confidence in the intensity forecast remains low.  Global models 
suggest that Lee could be affected by strong-to-moderate 
southwesterly shear for at least the next day, though the European 
global model shows strong upper-level winds near the hurricane for 
the entire forecast period.  The statistical and consensus intensity 
aids predict Lee could briefly weaken in the short-term, before 
restrengthening in about 12-24 hours.  Only minor adjustments have 
been made to the latest NHC intensity forecast, which generally lies 
between the simple and corrected consensus intensity aids. 
Regardless of the details, it is likely that Lee will continue to be 
a dangerous hurricane through the entire forecast period.

Lee is moving west-northwestward at 295/10 kt.  The hurricane is 
situated to the south of a mid-level ridge that is predicted to 
build westward and southwestward during the next few days.  This 
steering pattern is expected to keep Lee on a west-northwestward 
trajectory with a slower forward speed.  By next Wednesday, the 
hurricane should gradually turn to the northwest and 
north-northwest in the flow between a trough over the eastern 
United States and the southwestern edge of the ridge.  While the 
model guidance is in good agreement about the general synoptic 
setup, there remain differences in how far west Lee will move 
before it makes the turn.  The latest NHC track forecast is very 
similar to the previous predictions and lies just to the south of 
the various track consensus aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend
and early next week.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting
portions of the northern Leeward Islands.  These conditions
will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the weekend.

3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic.  Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday.  Continue to monitor
updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 19.7N  57.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 20.4N  58.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 21.2N  60.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 21.8N  61.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 22.4N  62.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  11/1800Z 22.8N  63.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 23.2N  64.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 23.9N  66.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 25.7N  67.8W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[NorthHillsWx]

Lee dropped 45 kts from 5 am to 11 pm yesterday. From rapid intensification to rapid weakening in a short period 

[Torch Tiger]

15 hours ago, HKY_WX said:

Yeah just noticed this. Long way to go, especially for new England.

we've all let it go days ago, besides the diehard weenies.

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Lee dropped 45 kts from 5 am to 11 pm yesterday. From rapid intensification to rapid weakening in a short period 

NHC was too generous imo with the advisory at 5p yesterday. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

The eye is becoming apparent in satellite imagery.

 

 

[StantonParkHoya]

She passed north of 20N at about 57.7W. I know we were using 60 as a marker for potential landfalls.

[GaWx]

6Z GEFS: 5 (16%) US hits (3 ME, 1 NY, 1 NJ) (9/16-7) vs 3 on prior 3 runs. Just passing along facts. Use the info however one wishes. I still think the chance is low (~10%) but still not yet near zero. Still too far out with runs like this.

[Boston Bulldog]

 

[GaWx]

 It was 963 mb as of last evening but then the recon from 2 hrs ago showed 956 mb. And then this showed 100 knts/still major 954 mb as of 12Z:

AL, 13, 2023090912, , BEST, 0, 200N, 578W, 100, 954, HU

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

we've all let it go days ago, besides the diehard weenies.

Yea, I have never really assessed this as much of a threat. Maybe I'm wrong, but don't think so.

[Random Chaos]

It’s amazing that even with shear now 24 hours in the core has been constantly emitting heavy lightning for the past 40+ hours. This storm seems primed to reintensify the moment the shear relaxes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

The eye is becoming apparent in satellite imagery.

 

 

Has that "skunked" post ERC, "seen my best days" type of appeal IMO.

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Has that "skunked" post ERC, "seen my best days" type of appeal IMO.

It’s got the “took a huge gulp of ML dry air” look 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s got the “took a huge gulp of ML dry air” look 

Yea, that, too. My money is on it not every regaining its former vigor, but that isn't saying much since it was cat 5.

[Great Snow 1717]

46 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

It’s amazing that even with shear now 24 hours in the core has been constantly emitting heavy lightning for the past 40+ hours. This storm seems primed to reintensify the moment the shear relaxes.

The was discussed on the Weather Channel this morning

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I have never really assessed this as much of a threat. Maybe I'm wrong, but don't think so.

Yeah, it's interesting to track and see outcomes.  colossal model failures at this range are not unheard of, ofc.  Time's running out though

[StantonParkHoya]

Lee looks like garbage

[Windspeed]

Lee looks like garbage

Give it time though. Old inner core is still pulsing. Shear is not fully gone yet. Should look drastically different tomorrow.

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that, too. My money is on it not every regaining its former vigor, but that isn't saying much since it was cat 5.

Reminds me of Irene in 2011.  Once her inner core was disrupted, she was kind of a mess of a cyclone that couldn’t get it together as she crawled up the EC.

[StantonParkHoya]

19 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Give it time though. Old inner core is still pulsing. Shear is not fully gone yet. Should look drastically different tomorrow.

In 48 she begins entering Franklins wake, so SSTs drop off. Don’t think it ever recovers.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

27 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Reminds me of Irene in 2011.  Once her inner core was disrupted, she was kind of a mess of a cyclone that couldn’t get it together as she crawled up the EC.

I can't remember the name/year (and I figured it was 2 or 3 years either side of 2008 but can't find it on Wiki), a major that entered the Yucatan, wandered for two or three days, and then never strengthened again once over the Gulf on the way North.  Lee still has an inner core, unlike that system.  But Lee has the above mentioned Franklin wake.  It might stay a high end Cat 2/low end Cat 3.   NHC is being kind calling a 3, IMHO (even with NOAA 100 kt SFMR).  Noticing now chances of a New York/New England landfall seem very low (not impossible, just extremely low) board interest in Lee is back to the regular tropical people.

[SI Mailman]

In 48 she begins entering Franklins wake, so SSTs drop off. Don’t think it ever recovers.

Wasn’t Franklin 2 weeks ago? One would have to assume the SSTs have recovered a little since then

[NJsnow89]

Gfs continues to show fish storm

[weatherCCB]

Looks to me Lee is starting to “breathe” again

 

[WxWatcher007]

45 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

Wasn’t Franklin 2 weeks ago? One would have to assume the SSTs have recovered a little since then

It takes a while for SSTs to really build, and Franklin left a really big wake. Note that the little blob of higher SSTs directly above the wake is erroneous. 

 

 

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that, too. My money is on it not every regaining its former vigor, but that isn't saying much since it was cat 5.

Right, given the comments I’ve seen so far today people will meh this when it reintensifies, but I think this gets back to a 4 once the shear abates some, which I believe will happen. 

[Chinook]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Has that "skunked" post ERC, "seen my best days" type of appeal IMO.

There's not a whole lot of storms that ever reach 140 knots. I guess we will see if it can truly recover to the 120kt as forecast by the NHC at this time. 

I would say that the current ongoing recon pass has about 95-97kt of flight level winds, and 960 mb. It honestly it may be about 87 knots for the surface winds, and the 960 is impressive, but obviously not the 930mb and such. So yeah, a long way downward form Thursday night.

[Random Chaos]

It is impressive it’s maintaining 959mb pressure with an open eyewall (per latest dropsonde and vortex report). But it feels like 87kt might be underestimated; 3 hours ago a dropsonde found 96kt surface winds and the latest dropsonde found 86kt surface winds with two 106kt unflagged SFMR readings. This system seems stronger than it has any right to be given the shear and satellite appearance. I also feel the standard flight level to surface wind adjustments haven’t matched what empirical data has shown with this storm the last two days; the surface winds are consistently stronger than they should be given observed flight level winds.

[WxWatcher007]

Latest VDM. 
 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 17:10Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306 
Storm Name: Lee
Storm Number & Year: 13 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 25 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 16:44:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20.36N 58.74W
B. Center Fix Location: 497 statute miles (799 km) to the ENE (74°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,770m (9,088ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 959mb (28.32 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 65° at 11kts (From the ENE at 13mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the east
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 70kts (80.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the ENE/E (79°) of center fix at 16:42:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 183° at 82kts (From the S at 94.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the ENE/E (79°) of center fix at 16:42:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 106kts (122.0mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the WNW (302°) of center fix at 16:47:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 38° at 94kts (From the NE at 108.2mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix at 16:48:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,036m (9,961ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) which was observed 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the ENE/E (79°) from the flight level center at 15:06:00Z

[nycwinter]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It takes a while for SSTs to really build, and Franklin left a really big wake. Note that the little blob of higher SSTs directly above the wake is erroneous. 

 

 

Right, given the comments I’ve seen so far today people will meh this when it reintensifies, but I think this gets back to a 4 once the shear abates some, which I believe will happen. 

it depends on where the upwelling happened if the storm was in the very  warm waters gulf or the deep warm waters south of cuba the water temps would have rebounded already