Category Five Hurricane Lee

[MattPetrulli]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think it's more instructive to use the super ensemble given the split in the GEFS/EPS, and just the fact that those individual members are pushing so far out in time they're not reliable IMO--whether they show land impacts or OTS. You can see in the plot below how confidence drops off rapidly at the latitude of Bermuda. 

Funny how the Euro suite is the one to the west and the GFS/GEFS suite is one to the east. Usually vice versa lol. I think a US impact has become slightly more probable today, esp if it ends up going into Nova Scotia like what a lot of GEFS suggest. Getting harder to avoid at least a close shave.

[csnavywx]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Probably be 150-155mph.

[TriPol]

I've been involved in meteorology for decades. I have never seen a storm rapidly intensify like this. Would be interested to see SSTs after Lee has passed.

[cardinalland]

The 00z intensity was 155mph i wonder if they keep it at that or bring it to Cat 5

[WxSynopsisDavid]

8 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I've been involved in meteorology for decades. I have never seen a storm rapidly intensify like this. Would be interested to see SSTs after Lee has passed.

Have to disagree and say Wilma is the upper echelon of RI cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Nothing Lee is doing surpasses what Wilma achieved. It’s impressive, no doubt.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

One- mentioned before, how much should a center drop SLP be adjusted for gale force winds (unless one insists winds turn in a perfect circle a km or 2 apart with little drop of wind inside the very narrow circle and a 30 or 40 not wind is close enough to the center and SLP is the minimum SLP).  Or dropsonde pressure isn't exactly in the center and minimum pressure is lower.

 

The JB thing, a strong enough storm's outflow strengthens the ridge to the N/NE, meaning a storm will come further W- if the models can handle ECUSA Nor'Easters pumping the ridge, increasing amplitude and shortening wave lengths, which they usually do (OT- my wife bought me the first and second KU big snowstorms monograph 15 years apart, she loves me), then why would the models be unable to model a strong hurricane 'pumping the ridge'.  I don't see why models can't handle a strong storm strengthening ridging, or saying models will miss strong storms moving further W doesn't seem justified.

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Have to disagree and say Wilma is the upper echelon of RI cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Nothing Lee is doing surpasses what Wilma achieved. It’s impressive, no doubt.

 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, Random Chaos said:

Interesting to note per bending before 70W is that the stronger the storm on the model (specifically hurricane models) the further south the storm stays through the 120hr period. I think it is too soon to say where the recurve happens. Both HAFS-A and HAFS-B are taking the storm due west at 120hr between 23N and 23.5N, while global models such as GFS have already started recurve and are up at 24N heading NW rather than due west. HMON and HREF that don’t strengthen the storm as much are closer to GFS. Also note none of these models predicted current strength at this point - we are 12hrs early on HAFS and HMON never even got this strong.

Also want to ask: what winter storm is predicted on the GFS at day 5 accurately? That’s essentially what we are trying to do with that ridge weakness to turn the storm north. It’s far, far too early to have any faith in a solution. 3 days for tropical systems is about the max you can reliably forecast under best case scenarios.

Good points, but on the last one, I'd say it's not an apples to apples comparison, as most winter storms, at least in the NE US, aren't fully formed entities that move for several days across the country, as they're usually the product of multiple pieces of energy coming together to form the ultimate winter storm, usually less than one day before the wintry weather begins.  Hurricanes, by contrast, are mostly fully formed storms (at least once named) subject to a variety of steering factors, but I'd argue they're easier to predict 5 days in advance, as we've often seen with many tropical systems (not all, of course).  

[MUWX]

Cat 5 at 11. 

[pazzo83]

here it is: 

 

 

[Newman]

Latest update Cat 5 160mph

[Floydbuster]

Interesting that the NHC takes Lee up to 180 mph in 12 hours, I actually got the feeling it might be peaking out tonight before possible future deepening again over the weekend.

[yoda]

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have found that Lee has
skyrocketed to category 5 strength.  The aircraft measured peak
700-mb flight-level winds of 148 kt and trustworthy SFMR winds
slightly over 140 kt, and dropsonde data shows that the minimum
pressure has plummeted to 928 mb.  Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set at 140 kt, and Lee's maximum winds have increased
by an incredible 70 kt over the past 24 hours.  The hurricane has a
clear 15 n mi-wide eye, with an infrared eye temperature as warm
as 21 C surrounded by convective cloud tops as cold as -76 C.

Additional strengthening appears likely, as Lee remains in a
low-shear environment and over very warm waters near 30 degrees
Celsius, and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement.
In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a
secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below
climatology.  There is some chance that moderate deep-layer
southwesterly shear could develop over the hurricane, but this
could be offset by strong upper-level divergence and thus have
little to no impact.  To account for the recent rate of
intensification, the NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids and shows a peak intensity of 155 kt in
12 hours.  Amazingly, the 1800 UTC HAFS-A and -B runs show a peak
intensity between 170-180 kt, but that's getting into rarefied air.
The NHC forecast will be adjusted accordingly if those solutions
begin looking like a more distinct possibility.  Only very gradual
weakening is shown after 12-24 hours, and it is likely that Lee's
intensity will fluctuate for much of the forecast period.  Lee is
forecast to remain a dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane for the
next 5 days.

For the next 5 days--through next Tuesday evening--Lee is expected
to maintain a steady west-northwestward track, passing well to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico.  The hurricane is currently moving at about 12 kt, but
it is expected to slow down considerably through early next week as
the steering ridge to its north builds southwestward, effectively
blocking Lee's progress.  The NHC track forecast remains of high
confidence through day 5, and again, no significant changes were
required from the previous forecast.  Although there are some
indications that Lee might begin a northward turn around the middle
of next week, it is still way to soon to focus on specific model
scenarios that far out into the future.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee has become a dangerous category 5 hurricane, and further
strengthening is forecast overnight.  Lee's core is expected to move
well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in
the northern Leeward Islands beginning Friday.  These conditions
will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through
the weekend.

3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee 
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda 
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to 
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic.  Regardless, 
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. 
East Coast beginning Sunday.  Continue to monitor updates to Lee's 
forecast during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 17.3N  52.4W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 18.1N  54.0W  155 KT 180 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 19.1N  56.1W  150 KT 175 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 20.1N  58.0W  145 KT 165 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 20.9N  59.6W  140 KT 160 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 21.5N  60.9W  135 KT 155 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 22.1N  62.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 23.2N  64.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 24.1N  66.6W  115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

[RU848789]

Cat 5...

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

...LEE BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE 
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 52.4W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES

[WxWatcher007]

A number of interesting nuggets in that discussion.

[yoda]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

A number of interesting nuggets in that discussion.

Just to do the quick math... 170 to 180 kts is 195 to 205 mph

[MUWX]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

A number of interesting nuggets in that discussion.

EWRC discussion is what is most interesting to me. 

[WxWatcher007]

Recon approaching the center again for a NE to SW pass. 

[cptcatz]

Lee is about to blow open the hurricane/MH days stat. Looks like all those bullish seasonal forecasts will verify. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, yoda said:

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have found that Lee has
skyrocketed to category 5 strength.  The aircraft measured peak
700-mb flight-level winds of 148 kt and trustworthy SFMR winds
slightly over 140 kt, and dropsonde data shows that the minimum
pressure has plummeted to 928 mb.  Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set at 140 kt, and Lee's maximum winds have increased
by an incredible 70 kt over the past 24 hours.  The hurricane has a
clear 15 n mi-wide eye, with an infrared eye temperature as warm
as 21 C surrounded by convective cloud tops as cold as -76 C.

Additional strengthening appears likely, as Lee remains in a
low-shear environment and over very warm waters near 30 degrees
Celsius, and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement.
In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a
secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below
climatology.  There is some chance that moderate deep-layer
southwesterly shear could develop over the hurricane, but this
could be offset by strong upper-level divergence and thus have
little to no impact.  To account for the recent rate of
intensification, the NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids and shows a peak intensity of 155 kt in
12 hours.  Amazingly, the 1800 UTC HAFS-A and -B runs show a peak
intensity between 170-180 kt, but that's getting into rarefied air.
The NHC forecast will be adjusted accordingly if those solutions
begin looking like a more distinct possibility.  Only very gradual
weakening is shown after 12-24 hours, and it is likely that Lee's
intensity will fluctuate for much of the forecast period.  Lee is
forecast to remain a dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane for the
next 5 days.

For the next 5 days--through next Tuesday evening--Lee is expected
to maintain a steady west-northwestward track, passing well to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico.  The hurricane is currently moving at about 12 kt, but
it is expected to slow down considerably through early next week as
the steering ridge to its north builds southwestward, effectively
blocking Lee's progress.  The NHC track forecast remains of high
confidence through day 5, and again, no significant changes were
required from the previous forecast.  Although there are some
indications that Lee might begin a northward turn around the middle
of next week, it is still way to soon to focus on specific model
scenarios that far out into the future.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee has become a dangerous category 5 hurricane, and further
strengthening is forecast overnight.  Lee's core is expected to move
well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in
the northern Leeward Islands beginning Friday.  These conditions
will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through
the weekend.

3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee 
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda 
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to 
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic.  Regardless, 
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. 
East Coast beginning Sunday.  Continue to monitor updates to Lee's 
forecast during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 17.3N  52.4W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 18.1N  54.0W  155 KT 180 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 19.1N  56.1W  150 KT 175 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 20.1N  58.0W  145 KT 165 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 20.9N  59.6W  140 KT 160 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 21.5N  60.9W  135 KT 155 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 22.1N  62.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 23.2N  64.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 24.1N  66.6W  115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

I was about to say, with a 15mi wide eye, an EWRC is probably not imminent. 

[Chinook]

45 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I've been involved in meteorology for decades. I have never seen a storm rapidly intensify like this. Would be interested to see SSTs after Lee has passed.

wow, 70 kt at 5:00AM 90 kt at 11:00AM and 140 kt at 11:00PM. So, yeah, I think your comment is about accurate. that's a +70 kt in 18 hr. I can't think of anything like that. I think Hurricane Andrew did something crazy like this in 1992 but it may very well have been many more hours. (Edit: just read the post about Hurricane Wilma.)

[hlcater]

142SFMR and 147FL on the most recent pass.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I pray this is a fish.

It will be close enough to Bermuda, even if 150 miles away, there will be impacts.  ECUSA weather on 18Z GFS ensemble mean track, not quite gales just offshore and I bet the surf is enough for beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.  I say either Nova Scotia or Newfoundland probably sees a transitioning to post-tropical or post-tropical storm with near hurricane force winds in an expanded wind field.  I think op 18Z GFS probably close.  New England not safe from a landfall, prior posts on ensembles, maybe a 10 to 20% chance of CONUS landfall.  Or US unlikely, Bermuda, small island in a big ocean, medium chance, higher chance of at least some sensible weather beyond a fresh breeze, Canada has a medium to high chance of direct impact.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Lee might very well surpass Wilma as my favorite cyclone. This is truly remarkable and special, a very rare meteorological event that we all got to witness.

[WEATHER53]

What will the wave heights be way out there ?

[Random Chaos]

Everyone keeps talking about 70W. Well, here’s tonight’s GEFS run at hr 168. Never assume something is impossible with tropical cyclones when it’s more than 3 days out.

 

[shaggy]

4 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Everyone keeps talking about 70W. Well, here’s tonight’s GEFS run at hr 168. Never assume something is impossible with tropical cyclones when it’s more than 3 days out.

 

Until the turn is made NE needs to watch this one 

[Random Chaos]

045900 1732N 05255W 6936 02699 //// +109 //// 067132 144 158 027 01
045930 1733N 05257W 6969 02774 //// +079 //// 062148 153 153 055 01

153 and 158kt SFMR unflagged, NW quadrant.

[nycwinter]

20 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Lee might very well surpass Wilma as my favorite cyclone. This is truly remarkable and special, a very rare meteorological event that we all got to witness.

was dorian chop liver at 185 mph..