Category Five Hurricane Lee

[PackGrad05]

12Z EPS members

 

[NJsnow89]

2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

12Z EPS members

 

Zero hits. 

[PackGrad05]

Just now, NJsnow89 said:

Zero hits. 

Way more spread than 00Z members.  Lots of uncertainty.

[nycsnow]

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Zero hits. 

Are you talking about the US? If so, there are a couple of hits (NE US) in addition to some on SE Canada. The chance of a US hit remains low but there is a chance.

[olafminesaw]

The TT webpage for Lee updated to hurricane, must be upgrading at 5 pm

[Rtd208]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Are you talking about the US? If so, there are a couple of hits (NE US) in addition to some on SE Canada. The chance of a US hit remains low but there is a chance.

Thats the problem. People just look at where the pretty colored lines go and say "zero hits", "all recurves", "no chance" without acknowledging the spread which still leads to uncertainty.

[nycsnow]

Hurricane 

https://x.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1699524386192314471?s=46

[NJwx85]

The developing system behind Lee is the new fly in the ointment. Too many moving parts right now to make a definitive fish call. 

Only out to 96hrs but the EPS has been trending stronger with the ridge over the Northeast and more amplified with the incoming trough.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

Way more spread than 00Z members.  Lots of uncertainty.

Lots of uncertainty about where exactly it will go, which is expected several days out, but really not much uncertainty about whether or not it makes landfall in the US. Doesn't mean zero impact, but it is what it is.

[NJsnow89]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lots of uncertainty about where exactly it will go, which is expected several days out, but really not much uncertainty about whether or not it makes landfall in the US. Doesn't mean zero impact, but it is what it is.

Agreed 100%. Just so much wish casting from people in here. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Thats the problem. People just look at where the pretty colored lines go and say "zero hits", "all recurves", "no chance" without acknowledging the spread which still leads to uncertainty.

The Weather Channel's Dr Knapp said similar about an hour ago...

[Conway7305]

18z GFS is SW of 12z at 150

GFS continues to adjust to a further southwest solution with a slower recurve. 

Last several runs clearly show the progression  

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

 

I'm guessing it is a bit like how the no longer mentioned (no longer run?) FSU Super Ensemble works(ed), except it uses either the Euro only or the EPS.  The FSU model supposedly over time 'learned' model biases in certain situations, and then weighed different models with different weights.  If the op or ensemble Euro has a known error mode, I am assuming the program corrects that output as needed.  Side note, the NE shear has obviously relaxed looking at the satellite.  Looks almost like the best outflow is to the NE.

[StantonParkHoya]

17 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

18z GFS is SW of 12z at 150

GFS continues to adjust to a further southwest solution with a slower recurve. 

Last several runs clearly show the progression  

They’re virtually identical. Wishcasting for hits is just as bad or worse as wishcasting for a recurve.

[Conway7305]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

They’re virtually identical. Wishcasting for hits is just as bad or worse as wishcasting for a recurve.

https://x.com/mikebweather/status/1699549776075710916?s=46

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

4 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

https://x.com/mikebweather/status/1699549776075710916?s=46

Look at the pattern on the other charts, not the placement of the low. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2023090618&fh=192

[WxSynopsisDavid]

7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

They’re virtually identical. Wishcasting for hits is just as bad or worse as wishcasting for a recurve.

There was no wishcasting in that post. And no, they are not virtually identical. You can clearly see the SW shift in location on tropicaltidbits when switching frames. This is an important trend to follow for numerous reasons. Any shift, in any direction, will have repercussions on Lee and his eventual track. More importantly, the farther south Lee tracks it opens the possibility to Lee tracking underneath the trough and potentially stalling.

[StantonParkHoya]

3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

There was no wishcasting in that post. And no, they are not virtually identical. You can clearly see the SW shift in location on tropicaltidbits when switching frames. This is an important trend to follow for numerous reasons. Any shift, in any direction, will have repercussions on Lee and his eventual track. More importantly, the farther south Lee tracks it opens the possibility to Lee tracking underneath the trough and potentially stalling.

One is slower… 

[GaWx]

 Saying there's still a small chance for a NE hit isn't wish-casting. It's the truth because nobody can possibly know with certainty this far out that Lee won't hit there. Do I think it will hit there? No, due to strong odds imo that it won't. Will I say the NE is safe from a hit? No, because there's still a 20% or so chance imo for a hit somewhere in the NE though that % is continually adjusted up and down.
 

 Biases in forecasting, whether bullish or bearish, are common. My goal here is to try to be as objective as possible based on the model data and other facts like history/analogs, try to generate interesting forecasting discussions, etc. This storm isn't even going to come close to directly affecting me way down here barring something really crazy. Furthermore, I wouldn't want this coming anywhere close to here.
 

 On another note, I'd like to know whether or not Sandy is an analog to consider for potential forecasting difficulties regarding the NE US. I don't mean that this is necessarily going to be another storm with as big of an impact as Sandy had should it actually hit. I'm just wondering if the possibility of a left hook into the NE is being considered as a small possibility. Although the Euro did well a week out showing the hook as I recall, other models didn't. So, is this an analog to just consider or not? Opinions?

 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

One is slower… 

And there’s a clear and evident SW shift, both the forward speed and track to the islands will have implications for areas west of 60W.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I'm flipping back and forth, and I see a small position due to slower speed 246 vs. 240 hours, I don't see much of a position change.  Bigger miss of Newfoundland in silly season beyond.

[Windspeed]

The problem with getting a US strike now in the GFS is its forecast position of 96L, which is currently positioned near the Cabo Verdes. The GFS wants to make this a major hurricane (probably Margot) and drive it into 500mb ridging west of the Azores. This breaks down any block faster and keeps Lee away from any interior CONUS cutoff.

[StantonParkHoya]

6 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

And there’s a clear and evident SW shift, both the forward speed and track to the islands will have implications for areas west of 60W.

Godspeed on your endeavors

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The problem with getting a US strike now in the GFS is its forecast position of 96L, which is currently positioned near the Cabo Verdes. The GFS wants to make this a major hurricane (probably Margot) and drive it into 500mb ridging west of the Azores. This breaks down any block faster and keeps Lee away from any interior CONUS cutoff.

Yep

That's what is going to make this storm go ots. If it wasn't there then the ridge would hold and the storm would most likely hit the coast.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Thats the problem. People just look at where the pretty colored lines go and say "zero hits", "all recurves", "no chance" without acknowledging the spread which still leads to uncertainty.

I agree that that's bad because it takes away from objectivity. But equally bad is doing the opposite. I strive for a happy medium of sorts.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

10 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Godspeed on your endeavors

Endeavors? Nah, I’m staying put. Now, on to the next topic of discussion. Big slow down as Lee gets north of the islands. Very little progress in 2+ days time.

[shaggy]

Well then 

[Windspeed]

Yep
That's what is going to make this storm go ots. If it wasn't there then the ridge would hold and the storm would most likely hit the coast.

Of course, in IRL, there's also the potential that a future Margot remains weak due to shear. In part by Lee's upper level backside exhaust and a possible ULL that might form, imparting westerly shear. That could keep future potential Margot in check. But oh well, plenty of days left to watch this all unfold.

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The problem with getting a US strike now in the GFS is its forecast position of 96L, which is currently positioned near the Cabo Verdes. The GFS wants to make this a major hurricane (probably Margot) and drive it into 500mb ridging west of the Azores. This breaks down any block faster and keeps Lee away from any interior CONUS cutoff.

That makes sense. But is there an alternative possibility, that of potential Margot helping to pump up the ridge to its NW and then leading to an omega block that forces Lee into the NE like was the case with Sandy? (See my post above showing the omega block that affected Sandy).

 I'll repost the Sandy omega block image: