Category Five Hurricane Lee

[NJwx85]

The trough is much shallower compared to yesterdays 12Z GFS which dug much further South. The system gets close but is never really captured.

[jdj5211]

Way too close for comfort for the NE…and the next system to Lees east is a big wildcard here! Things are def going to be very interesting for the next 5 days around here.


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[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, jdj5211 said:

Way too close for comfort for the NE…and the next system to Lees east is a big wildcard here! Things are def going to be very interesting for the next 5 days around here.


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I really don't see anything overly compelling in terms of US interests. Meteorologically speaking, sure.

[Yeoman]

Oh good.. harmlessly out to sea. Hopefully Carnival cruise line is taking this one seriously!

[shaggy]

How anyone cN take a look at the gefs at 11z with the huge differences in timing spread and location spread and say what the deal is right now is funny to me. It could be off Nova Scotia or that one member doing an Irma track

[Kmlwx]

Pair of TEAL callsign flights (WC-130Js) heading over the Bahamas right now enroute to forward deploy for recon into Lee in the coming days.

[olafminesaw]

[GaWx]

The 12Z UKMET is similar to the 0Z and thus the ~200 mile E shift of today's 0Z vs yesterday's more ominous 12Z was maintained. Regardless, I maintain there's still a chance for the NE US to be hit albeit a small chance. When I say small, I mean something like 20%, which is nothing to take lightly as they're nowhere near safe at this point. Although the highest % of Euro ens members hitting the NE US so far (through today's 0Z run) is 10%, I'm still at double that due to how far out in time it still is.

 At 168, the 12Z UKMET has Lee ~250 miles NE of the SE Bahamas moving NNW:

TROPICAL STORM LEE        ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N  44.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 06.09.2023    0  13.7N  44.8W     1003            43
    0000UTC 07.09.2023   12  15.3N  46.6W     1002            43
    1200UTC 07.09.2023   24  16.3N  49.3W     1000            41
    0000UTC 08.09.2023   36  17.0N  51.8W     1000            40
    1200UTC 08.09.2023   48  17.7N  54.6W      997            55
    0000UTC 09.09.2023   60  18.3N  57.0W      997            52
    1200UTC 09.09.2023   72  19.1N  59.3W      997            53
    0000UTC 10.09.2023   84  19.7N  61.1W      997            55
    1200UTC 10.09.2023   96  20.0N  63.1W      994            57
    0000UTC 11.09.2023  108  20.6N  64.4W      994            53
    1200UTC 11.09.2023  120  20.9N  65.6W      994            53
    0000UTC 12.09.2023  132  21.7N  66.8W      991            56
    1200UTC 12.09.2023  144  22.6N  67.3W      985            50
    0000UTC 13.09.2023  156  23.4N  68.4W      978            52
    1200UTC 13.09.2023  168  24.2N  68.9W      973            61

[madwx]

looks like we have the beginnings of an eye.  also looks to be deviating a bit right of projected track

[GaWx]

The 12Z Euro at 132 is ~150 miles SSE of the 0Z at 144 and isn't quite as strong though it is still a beast.

[NJwx85]

12z GEFS shifted West. 

Even have a cluster hitting Florida.

[Porsche]

 

 

Definitely south of the GFS so far.

 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro at 168 is ~200 miles SSE of the 0Z at 180.

[NJwx85]

Looks like at least a handful of members with a threat to LI/New England and the Southeast coast.

[shaggy]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro at 168 is ~200 miles SSE of the 0Z at 180.

Still such a huge spread and enough run to run inconsistency to be patient and cautious at the same time 

[Ahoff]

I have to assume this hasn't been upgraded to hurricane yet simply because of how far out in the ocean it is?  It's one of the most put together good looking tropical storms I've seen.

[MJO812]

Margot will definitely play a role with Lee in the Atlantic.

[wkd]

44 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Where on tidbits did you find that analysis?

[WxWatcher007]

15 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I have to assume this hasn't been upgraded to hurricane yet simply because of how far out in the ocean it is?  It's one of the most put together good looking tropical storms I've seen.

It’ll almost certainly be upgraded in the 5pm advisory.

[KChuck]

29 minutes ago, Porsche said:

 

 

Definitely south of the GFS so far.

Umm. You posted the same image twice. No???

[Porsche]

9 minutes ago, Chuck said:

Umm. You posted the same image twice. No???

Corrected the original post.  Thanks for the heads up.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I really don't see anything overly compelling in terms of US interests. Meteorologically speaking, sure.

Way.way too early in the game to make that prediction. Hopefully Lee recurves out to seas but too much is unknown at this point

[Rtd208]

 

[Jersey Andrew]

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

What experimental Euro are they using? How does it differ from EPS?

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

Fascinating stuff to follow. 

[olafminesaw]

36 minutes ago, wkd said:

Where on tidbits did you find that analysis?

At the bottom of the lower dynamics tab. But it isn't available in all regions.

[cptcatz]

5 minutes ago, MDScot said:

They take the comments on Americanwx and feed them into ChatGPT to get an artifically intelligent forecast

Sounds like then it would show a 880mb storm riding up the east coast merging with a polar vortex causing a blizzard with 170 mph winds. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

From an NHC met

 

 

[GaWx]

 Just through 240, the 12Z EPS appears to be fairly similar to the 0Z. It has one H hit the ME/NB border on 9/15, one hit S Nova Scotia, several more aiming for the NE/SE Canada, and a few much further S including one H and 2 TS in the Bahamas. I'll check the entire run later when it comes out.