What strength will the El Niño peak at in 2023-2024?

[George001]

Just curious to see what the distribution is. Seems like most posters are on board with a strong or super nino, but I’m curious to see if a consensus is beginning to form or it’s still an even split. I’m going to start by putting in my vote for super (I’m thinking a peak of 2.3 or so). 

[raindancewx]

I don't think it's physically impossible for Nino 3.4 to gain something like 4C year over year. But it's never come close to doing it.

In close to 100 years of data even a 2C gain is very rare. Last winter was 25.95C in winter. Nino 3.4 averages ~26.5C in winter. No reason to believe this will go much above 28.0C for winter. Even those 2.0C gains are like once a decade.

May is also a good indicator - you don't really warm up much in DJF from May even in super strong events.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I thought it could remain moderate last spring, but by summer it was clear to me that it would be strong.

[Terpeast]

Voted strong. Thinking 1.8 or 1.9

[griteater]

My prediction:

Oct: 1.8

Nov: 2.0

Dec: 2.0

Jan: 1.9

Max Tri-Monthly ONI: 1.97 rounded to 2.0 for NDJ

I voted for "Super (>2.0)", but that's with considering Super as "2.0 and higher" instead of "higher than 2.0" (I know, I'm not playing by the rules).  In addition, I consider an official SST Super Nino not just one tri-monthly reaching 2.0, but 3 tri-monthlies reaching 2.0 <OR> the average of the 3 highest tri-monthlies being 2.0 or greater...got this from the way Jan Null designates ENSO strength, which I like: 

Source: El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities (ggweather.com)

"The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has become the de-facto standard that NOAA uses for classifying El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the eastern tropical Pacific.  It is the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 5^oN-5^oS, 120^o-170^oW).  Events are defined as 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or above the +0.5^o anomaly for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cool (La Niña) events.  The threshold is further broken down into Weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST anomaly), Moderate (1.0 to 1.4), Strong (1.5 to 1.9) and Very Strong (≥ 2.0) events.  For the purpose of this report for an event to be categorized as weak, moderate, strong or very strong it must have equaled or exceeded the threshold of the highest category for at least 3 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods."

[so_whats_happening]

8 minutes ago, griteater said:

My prediction:

Oct: 1.8

Nov: 2.0

Dec: 2.0

Jan: 1.9

Max Tri-Monthly ONI: 1.97 rounded to 2.0 for NDJ

I voted for "Super (>2.0)", but that's with considering Super as "2.0 and higher" instead of "higher than 2.0" (I know, I'm not playing by the rules).  In addition, I consider an official SST Super Nino not just one tri-monthly reaching 2.0, but 3 tri-monthlies reaching 2.0 <OR> the average of the 3 highest tri-monthlies being 2.0 or greater...got this from the way Jan Null designates ENSO strength, which I like: 

Source: El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities (ggweather.com)

"The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has become the de-facto standard that NOAA uses for classifying El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the eastern tropical Pacific.  It is the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 5^oN-5^oS, 120^o-170^oW).  Events are defined as 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or above the +0.5^o anomaly for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cool (La Niña) events.  The threshold is further broken down into Weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST anomaly), Moderate (1.0 to 1.4), Strong (1.5 to 1.9) and Very Strong (≥ 2.0) events.  For the purpose of this report for an event to be categorized as weak, moderate, strong or very strong it must have equaled or exceeded the threshold of the highest category for at least 3 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods."

Like the way you presented the thought.

Was originally going with high end moderate 1.3-1.4 by October (spring thoughts) but barring some rather drastic shift that is realistically out of the possibilities. Moved to 1.7 with October peak but now going toward a November peak with how slow things seem to be progressing. If we are using ERSST that is, seems like CDAS is about .2C cooler while OISST is about .1C warmer than ERSST.

October: 1.6

November 1.9

December: 1.7

January: 1.6

There is the possibility of November going to 2 which would bump up the trimonthly to 1.8 averaged around OND.

[George001]

Right now I’m thinking this:

October: 2.1

November: 2.4

December 2.3

January: 2.0

That would be a trimontly peak of 2.26, would be bumped up to 2.3 OND (super). The reason I am going big on the strength of the El Niño is the latest obs. I know there are a lot of factors like the MJO, -PDO, etc that would argue against rapid El Niño strengthening, but the past couple months the nino has been strengthing rapidly even with those factors working against it. Makes me think that if things tilt even a little bit more favorable for El Niño development (stronger MJO wave, weakening -PDO, +IOD development, etc) the strengthening will accelerate. We already are at +1.5 on the weeklies, and August finishing in the +1.3 range is in line with the more aggressive dynamical guidance. 

[snowman19]

My guess is a super trimonthly ONI (NDJ) of +2.2C, peaks in December:


November: +2.2C


December: +2.3C


January: +2.2C

[GaWx]

 I’m going with a super ONI peak of +2.10 for this contest. This will be fun to follow. The winner(s) should get a free cruise to Nino 3.4 to see those hallowed waters up close and personal!

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/1/2023 at 8:47 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought it could remain moderate last spring, but by summer it was clear to me that it would be strong.

1.7 to 1.9 for the sake of specificity.

[Terpeast]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1.7 to 1.9 for the sake of specificity.

Same, I’m at 1.7-1.8

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Same, I’m at 1.7-1.8

Yea, I forecast using ranges in increments of .3 for the sake of verification....only reason for the difference.

[brooklynwx99]

in terms of trimonthly ONI, I'd say the highest this gets is 1.9... range of 1.7 - 1.9, probably in SON

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

in terms of trimonthly ONI, I'd say the highest this gets is 1.9... range of 1.7 - 1.9, probably in SON

Agree on the range, but most guidance has NDJ or at least OND.

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree on the range, but most guidance has NDJ or at least OND.

you're right, it probably is later than that... OND is likely a better guess. I just don't really know what keeps this going for that long

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you're right, it probably is later than that... OND is likely a better guess. I just don't really know what keeps this going for that long

I could see OND...like the statistical mean. But if you feel strongly, then go with your gut....I just use guidance and historical benchmarks, as I am certainly no expert on tropical Pacific weather patterns. But I feel like the late start (region 3.4) may be a red flag against a fast peak.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1957, 1965 and 1991 seems like good ONI analogs.....with 1994 and 2015 being the best EMI analogs.

Of course, RONI and MEI are another story altogether.

 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1957, 1965 and 1991 seems like good ONI analogs.....with 1994 and 2015 being the best EMI analogs.

Of course, RONI and MEI are another story altogether.

 

I might go with a strategy to adjust colder analogs warmer by grouping all potential matches together, and then creating a second group that leaves out the older/colder cohort. 

I did this a few pages back for MEI lower than ONI by 0.5, and the forcing and precipitation patterns still turned out to be similar, except for temperature and the polar domain. 

That way we can tease out what other contributing variables drive the ao/nao and temps. Don’t know if this will work in a seasonal forecast, but I’ll test this strategy this year. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I might go with a strategy to adjust colder analogs warmer by grouping all potential matches together, and then creating a second group that leaves out the older/colder cohort. 

I did this a few pages back for MEI lower than ONI by 0.5, and the forcing and precipitation patterns still turned out to be similar, except for temperature and the polar domain. 

That way we can tease out what other contributing variables drive the ao/nao and temps. Don’t know if this will work in a seasonal forecast, but I’ll test this strategy this year. 

I have started using sensible weather analogs by ENSO state...its a good way to keep the forecast composite "honest" becuase I have years like 1982 and 2015 in there, which I know damn well are to strong for ENSO....but they are decent matches the pattern.

[Greg]

1.8/1.9 January 2024 Peak of 3-month average.

[George001]

21 hours ago, Greg said:

1.8/1.9 January 2024 Peak of 3-month average.

Yeah, seems like the guidance is converging on a peak in the 1.8-1.9 range. I initially thought it was going to be a super nino, but it looks like it’s going to fall a bit short. 

[GaWx]

On 9/2/2023 at 6:35 PM, griteater said:

My prediction:

Oct: 1.8

Nov: 2.0

Dec: 2.0

Jan: 1.9

Max Tri-Monthly ONI: 1.97 rounded to 2.0 for NDJ

I voted for "Super (>2.0)", but that's with considering Super as "2.0 and higher" instead of "higher than 2.0" (I know, I'm not playing by the rules).  In addition, I consider an official SST Super Nino not just one tri-monthly reaching 2.0, but 3 tri-monthlies reaching 2.0 <OR> the average of the 3 highest tri-monthlies being 2.0 or greater...got this from the way Jan Null designates ENSO strength, which I like: 

Source: El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities (ggweather.com)

"The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has become the de-facto standard that NOAA uses for classifying El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the eastern tropical Pacific.  It is the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 5^oN-5^oS, 120^o-170^oW).  Events are defined as 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or above the +0.5^o anomaly for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cool (La Niña) events.  The threshold is further broken down into Weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST anomaly), Moderate (1.0 to 1.4), Strong (1.5 to 1.9) and Very Strong (≥ 2.0) events.  For the purpose of this report for an event to be categorized as weak, moderate, strong or very strong it must have equaled or exceeded the threshold of the highest category for at least 3 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods."

 This is about as good as it gets per his monthlies and getting the unrounded peak exactly and thus I think should be the winner! However, he messed up his perfection by “not playing by the rules” (as he stated) since his definition of super is 2.0+, not >2.0 (with which I agree). Thus he voted >2.0 even though he predicted +1.97 unrounded/+2.0 rounded. I still say he wins. Congrats!

[so_whats_happening]

On 2/3/2024 at 4:01 PM, GaWx said:

 This is about as good as it gets per his monthlies and getting the unrounded peak exactly and thus I think should be the winner! However, he messed up his perfection by “not playing by the rules” (as he stated) since his definition of super is 2.0+, not >2.0 (with which I agree). Thus he voted >2.0 even though he predicted +1.97 unrounded/+2.0 rounded. I still say he wins. Congrats!

By far the best forecast hands down.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

The 2023-24 season is officially a consensus strong el nino, as Eric Webb has updated the Ensemble website, calling it a strong el nino: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

This is in agreement with NOAA: https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

Strong/Super El Ninos since 1950

Super El Nino: 1972-73 (7 - considered Super by Ensemble, but Strong by NOAA), 1982-83 (8), 1997-98 (8), 2015-16 (8)

Strong El Nino: 1957-58 (6), 1965-66 (6), 1987-88 (6), 1991-92 (6), 2009-10 (5 - considered Strong by Ensemble, but Moderate by NOAA), 2023-24 (6)

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/21/2023 at 7:48 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1.7 to 1.9 for the sake of specificity.

Not bad.... .1 outside of my range, though I voted for the correct category since it did not exceed 2.0