Pittsburgh/Western PA Fall 2023 Discussion

[Ahoff]

48 minutes ago, Gordo74 said:

It was nice to get a little blast on winter, but nothing good on the next few days

Early December rarely is good.  Let’s get it out of the way and hope for better stuff in the latter parts of the month.

[Ahoff]

Maybe something to watch on the 6th?  GFS 12z run had about 4".

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Most of the long range forecasting (heck even short range) is above my pay grade, but I certainly don't hate the look currently advertised heading into mid December. At least right now, its not a shutout pattern, several chances of at least some snow on various ENS runs. Past that, nino climo would tend to favor increasing chances for winter weather heading into January and February. I'm at least cautiously optimistic for the winter as a whole at least hitting the average bar, with above average likelihood of some more frequent big storm tracking, whether we cash in of course tbd. 

 

[Ahoff]

3 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Most of the long range forecasting (heck even short range) is above my pay grade, but I certainly don't hate the look currently advertised heading into mid December. At least right now, its not a shutout pattern, several chances of at least some snow on various ENS runs. Past that, nino climo would tend to favor increasing chances for winter weather heading into January and February. I'm at least cautiously optimistic for the winter as a whole at least hitting the average bar, with above average likelihood of some more frequent big storm tracking, whether we cash in of course tbd. 

 

Agree.  Looks like the models are trending towards a cooler second half of December.  Hopefully, that is true.  We’ll see.

[meatwad]

Started thread for Winter 2023-24