Pittsburgh/Western PA Fall 2023 Discussion

[CoraopolisWx]

The NWS took a bit of an L yesterday. 
They thought downsloping would hinder any precip development, however with N-NE surface winds, this was not an issue. 
Usually said winds are SE, or to a lesser extent E. 

Possibly these Mets relocated here, and aren’t familiar with local climate. 
Regardless this would’ve been a nice surprise in the winter. 

[Ahoff]

4 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

The NWS took a bit of an L yesterday. 
They thought downsloping would hinder any precip development, however with N-NE surface winds, this was not an issue. 
Usually said winds are SE, or to a lesser extent E. 

Possibly these Mets relocated here, and aren’t familiar with local climate. 
Regardless this would’ve been a nice surprise in the winter. 

Took an L today too it seems.  Seemed like the story was maybe a passing shower over the whole weekend.  Pretty consistent drizzle/light rain since yesterday afternoon.

Opheila was underestimated.

[TimB]

I think it’s more likely that we see 85 at some point in the next week and a half than 49, to be honest.

[TimB]

Lowest temp of the season looks to remain 48 for at least another week and a half. Very, very likely we make it into the top 5 of this list for latest in a season we first got to 47.

 

The daily normal low reaches 47 on 10/6 so it’s entirely possible if not likely that the normal low gets below 48 before we actually do.

[TimB]

Over/under on the number of times we hear the phrase “Indian summer” next week even though we haven’t had any true fall weather yet?

[Ahoff]

12 minutes ago, TimB said:

Over/under on the number of times we hear the phrase “Indian summer” next week even though we haven’t had any true fall weather yet?

I'd say we say true fall weather, we just didn't see a frost or freeze, but last weekend was very Fall like.

[TimB]

31 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I'd say we say true fall weather, we just didn't see a frost or freeze, but last weekend was very Fall like.

I mean I guess you could call basically average temperatures for September by definition fall-like. I’m not expecting a frost or freeze in September. There has only been one September freeze in recorded history (9/19/1959), and unlikely there will ever be another, but the nights this month have been very warm.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

I mean I guess you could call basically average temperatures for September by definition fall-like. I’m not expecting a frost or freeze in September. There has only been one September freeze in recorded history (9/19/1959), and unlikely there will ever be another, but the nights this month have been very warm.

64 in mid-September is Fall weather by all definitions here, lol.  Yeah, we really can’t call anything Indian summer until late October or November anyway.  Anyone using it is pushing a narrative.

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

8 hours ago, TimB said:

I mean I guess you could call basically average temperatures for September by definition fall-like. I’m not expecting a frost or freeze in September. There has only been one September freeze in recorded history (9/19/1959), and unlikely there will ever be another, but the nights this month have been very warm.

The nights here in Farmington have been between 53-55…..a few 47-51…..that’s not average

[RitualOfTheTrout]

8 hours ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

The nights here in Farmington have been between 53-55…..a few 47-51…..that’s not average

I like the house cool at night, but its been a bit of a challenge even with a box fan in the window to keep it 70-68 over night. I also like to see how long I can run without needing AC or Heat, got a decent streak going, but its looking like odds favor warmth next week.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I like the house cool at night, but its been a bit of a challenge even with a box fan in the window to keep it 70-68 over night. I also like to see how long I can run without needing AC or Heat, got a decent streak going, but its looking like odds favor warmth next week.

My heat came on this past weekend.  My house got cold.

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I like the house cool at night, but its been a bit of a challenge even with a box fan in the window to keep it 70-68 over night. I also like to see how long I can run without needing AC or Heat, got a decent streak going, but its looking like odds favor warmth next week.

And yet we have these crazy yinzers on Reddit who think it’s some sort of achievement not to run the heat by October 1: 

https://reddit.com/r/pittsburgh/s/1ePk1TxQI5

 

[TimB]

The temperature inside my house has yet to go below 67 this fall. I think my heat is set to 67, but I have the thermostat off right now.

Pattern change next weekend could change that, and is looking more likely.

[Ahoff]

Next weekend looks pretty cool so far.

[TimB]

Day 10 of what will likely end up being 15 of temperatures not dropping below 55. A 15-day stretch of lows at or above 55 has never happened entirely on or after September 22.

[Ahoff]

51 minutes ago, TimB said:

Day 10 of what will likely end up being 15 of temperatures not dropping below 55. A 15-day stretch of lows at or above 55 has never happened entirely on or after September 22.

Next weekend will make up for it.

[TimB]

Not exactly how you “make up for” unprecedented late season heat unless you get unprecedented early season cold, which next weekend isn’t even close to. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll take it, but it’s just a (probably short) period of slightly below normal temperatures.

[KPITSnow]

My god, I really hate these late September/early October heat waves that are becoming more and more common 

[Ahoff]

4 hours ago, TimB said:

Not exactly how you “make up for” unprecedented late season heat unless you get unprecedented early season cold, which next weekend isn’t even close to. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll take it, but it’s just a (probably short) period of slightly below normal temperatures.

This certainly isn’t unprecedented late season heat.  82 is not unheard of in October.

Mostly though I meant it will be very Fall like next week.  50s for highs, maybe 30s even for lows?

[TimB]

53 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

This certainly isn’t unprecedented late season heat.  82 is not unheard of in October.

Mostly though I meant it will be very Fall like next week.  50s for highs, maybe 30s even for lows?

Going 15 days in a row without going below 55 on or after 9/22 is what I was referring to as unprecedented.

Fall nowadays is going back and forth between long stretches of above normal and shorter stretches of normal with maybe a below normal day or two sprinkled in here and there. The upcoming pattern reflects this, and it’s now looking like we’ll quickly bounce back to normal or above, and the CPC agrees in their 8-14 day outlook.

[KPITSnow]

On 10/1/2023 at 8:18 PM, TimB said:

Going 15 days in a row without going below 55 on or after 9/22 is what I was referring to as unprecedented.

Fall nowadays is going back and forth between long stretches of above normal and shorter stretches of normal with maybe a below normal day or two sprinkled in here and there. The upcoming pattern reflects this, and it’s now looking like we’ll quickly bounce back to normal or above, and the CPC agrees in their 8-14 day outlook.

I remember going to college in slippery rock 20 years ago and distinctly remember an October 1st with grauple. I also remember maste season pirate games with snow and I think the 79 World Series had a snow out. 
 

I can’t remember the last time we had snow flakes in late September or early October. I mean I also can’t remember the last time we had the snow squally type days in late October and November either

[TimB]

85 for a high today. 3rd year out of the past 6 we’ve gotten to 85 in October after only getting there one year out of the previous 48.

[KPITSnow]

2 hours ago, TimB said:

85 for a high today. 3rd year out of the past 6 we’ve gotten to 85 in October after only getting there one year out of the previous 48.

Honestly awful 

[Ahoff]

4 hours ago, KPITSnow said:

I remember going to college in slippery rock 20 years ago and distinctly remember an October 1st with grauple. I also remember maste season pirate games with snow and I think the 79 World Series had a snow out. 
 

I can’t remember the last time we had snow flakes in late September or early October. I mean I also can’t remember the last time we had the snow squally type days in late October and November either

Pretty sure early October 2013 or 2014 had light snow or grapple.  Late September is almost unheard of, so that’s super unlikely to actually ever happen.

Those patterns will return, we’re just not there right now.

[TimB]

80 has been reached at PIT. First time since 1900 that October has started with 4 days of 80+.
 

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

8 hours ago, TimB said:

80 has been reached at PIT. First time since 1900 that October has started with 4 days of 80+.
 

I’m more looking forward to day 6-15…….let’s see how that’s gonna feel!

[Ahoff]

Looks like the CPC, for now, has turned October colder than they originally had.  6-10, 8-14 and week 3-4 outlooks are all below normal.

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

Looks like the CPC, for now, has turned October colder than they originally had.  6-10, 8-14 and week 3-4 outlooks are all below normal.

Looks like actual fall now. Maybe a brief trip into warmth the end of next week but doesn’t look endless.

[TimB]

On 9/26/2023 at 10:00 PM, TimB said:

Lowest temp of the season looks to remain 48 for at least another week and a half. Very, very likely we make it into the top 5 of this list for latest in a season we first got to 47.

 

The daily normal low reaches 47 on 10/6 so it’s entirely possible if not likely that the normal low gets below 48 before we actually do.

Bump. Looks like we made it to 2nd on this list, with this morning’s low of 47 matching the daily normal for today.

[Ahoff]

Coldest morning so far.  We'll surpass that over the next few days.  Do we get into the 30s?