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Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso


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33 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

ens_2023092800_ne_24h_tpi_SFC_48.png

EPS EFI is pretty juiced. Good news is that the flooding in Greece was like an 8 on this index, so it is unlikely to be that bad. 

GEFS has a pretty good signal for >90th percentile mean QPF as well.

Well CT is in the 7 on that index…that’s up there too according to that graphic. 

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

These inverted troughs are tricky so prepare for the worst and hope for the best. I personally think the worst will be W and SW of us fwiw.

Let’s hope…if it shifts east a little…you, and possibly I go into the worst.   Either way I think we’re in for some big rains.  There isn’t much room to put it either. 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well CT is in the 7 on that index…that’s up there too according to that graphic. 

Sorry, an 8 on the black lines not the shading. The black lines are an indication of what the highest ensemble members are showing. The shading shows roughly how many members are forecasting something bigger than the model climate.

So big shading numbers make a soaker more likely, and the black lines as the numbers get bigger make a truly extreme event more likely.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Sorry, an 8 on the black lines not the shading. The black lines are an indication of what the highest ensemble members are showing. The shading shows roughly how many members are forecasting something bigger than the model climate.

So big shading numbers make a soaker more likely, and the black lines as the numbers get bigger make a truly extreme event more likely.

Ahh ok…that makes sense. Thanks.

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27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's what I was wondering .... why is Schilling announcing on his behalf?   was he asked by Wakefield to do so -

huh

I’ve never seen the F word used as often as in people’s twitter replies to Schilling doing this..Deservedly so frankly. 

 

Edit: Schilling deleted his original tweet 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Might be a little harsh ..  I mean, I'd prefer to actually hear and have time to process Schilling's reasoning for divulging the information before a Hannibal Lectorian distinction haha .

 

Even he admitted that he wasn’t sure if he should be sharing the info. 

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