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Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso


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Definitely above normal.   How much, historic or just warm, who knows, but it looks protracted either way.

Short version, warmth through the 15th of October would appear to be above normal confidence.

The longer version, because there is vivid cross-guidance ( EPS/GEFS/GEPS ) support, for one. They all merely fade out to 380 hours, having not actually ever moved the underpinning pattern behavior (when looping) away from the -PNA; a coherent baseline in that regard is evidenced. It's impressive they all end their runs with an echo of -PNA surviving the noise/entropy of the distant range. 

Another less obvious but useful signal/confidence is when looping these,  the individual R-wave features are repeating where (spacial regions) they amplify and decay.  

Pattern stability, is what all that means.  It doesn't mean we can't still generate enough over top high across Quebec to wedge-ruin a warm 500 mb look along the way.  But when those intervals don't happen, that 850 mb seems to surpass +12C with episodic +16ers spanning some 9 days...

 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Definitely above normal.   How much, historic or just warm, who knows, but it looks protracted either way.

Short version, warmth through the 15th of October would appear to be above normal confidence.

The longer version, because there is vivid cross-guidance ( EPS/GEFS/GEPS ) support, for one. They all merely fade out to 380 hours, having not actually ever moved pattern behavior (when looping) away from the -PNA - a coherent baseline in that regard is evidenced. It's impressive they all end their runs with an echo of -PNA surviving the noise/entropy of the distant range. 

Another less obvious but useful signal/confidence is when looping these,  the individual R-wave features are repeating where (spacial regions) they amplify and decay.  

Pattern stability, is what all that means.  It doesn't mean we can't still generate enough over top high across Quebec to wedge-ruin a warm 500 mb look along the way.  But when those intervals don't happen, that 850 mb seems to surpass +12C with episodic +16ers spanning some 9 days...

 

Beach weather returns. 

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If the euro is right Saturday is gone. I’ll effing lose it. More games and activities rained out. 

So much for dry and sunny for the next ten days after Ophelia, as was said a couple days ago.  It’s almost comical.  
 

But ya, that would suck if Saturday is shot again…we have a huge outdoor party that a friend throws every year…it’s a humdinger(he goes all out), and he cancelled it last Saturday and postponed it to this Saturday because the forecast looked nice and sunny and mild back on this past Saturday.  Can’t trust 7 day forecasts I guess lmao,  that say gorgeous weather the next 7-10 days.  

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

So much for dry and sunny for the next ten days after Ophelia, as was said a couple days ago.  It’s almost comical.  
 

But ya, that would suck if Saturday is shot again…we have a huge outdoor party that a friend throws every year…it’s a humdinger(he fits all out), and he cancelled it last Saturday and postponed it to this Saturday because the forecast looked nice and sunny and mild back on this past Saturday.  Can’t trust 7 day forecasts I guess lmao,  that say gorgeous weather the next 7-10 days.  

Nothing worse than a shit Saturday. Let it rain Sunday when you gotta get ready for the week etc. Maybe I'll just drive north and drink a beer with Tamarack as he tells stories of smoke plumes rising straight and then drifting away at the temp inversion in Frenchville Maine.

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7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So much for dry and sunny for the next ten days after Ophelia, as was said a couple days ago.  It’s almost comical.  
 

But ya, that would suck if Saturday is shot again…we have a huge outdoor party that a friend throws every year…it’s a humdinger(he goes all out), and he cancelled it last Saturday and postponed it to this Saturday because the forecast looked nice and sunny and mild back on this past Saturday.  Can’t trust 7 day forecasts I guess lmao,  that say gorgeous weather the next 7-10 days.  

Lets keep this going into winter...imagine at day 4 going from P Sunny and 45 to 30".

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