Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Will we ever see the F'ng sun again? Good god.

[dendrite]

Looks like it's clearing rapidly near the NH/MA border though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll be there if we have a shit winter again.

 A scantily clothed scooter hunched over on a sidewalk in a remote village, rocking back and forth feeding the monkies while murmuring to himself....."they stole my circle jerk"..."they stole my circle jerk". Concerned natives continue to gather around conversing amongst themselves in native tongue...

[Chrisrotary12]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

HA. I just looked at Satellite. Low level stratus on northeast flow for the loss.

[ineedsnow]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like it's clearing rapidly near the NH/MA border though.

no sign of that here yet

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 A scantily clothed scooter hunched over on a sidewalk in a remote village, rocking back and forth feeding the monkies while murmuring to himself....."they stole my circle jerk"..."they stole my circle jerk". Concerned natives continue to gather around conversing amongst themselves in native tongue...

While intermittently saying "All I wanted was high pressure" and "we knew." 

[weatherwiz]

As modeled, I think the GFS is too warm for the weekend. 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

As modeled, I think the GFS is too warm for the weekend. 

Sunday looks warm

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Looks like it's clearing rapidly near the NH/MA border though.

It may persist in NE Mass a bit longer ...

I mean you're right by sat, west of there, but there's a pretty persistent NE jet along and off the Maine coast that's moving across those weirdly warmer than normal SSTs, and it's creating OES enhanced strata field.

There's always a detail to fu up a solution -

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

As modeled, I think the GFS is too warm for the weekend. 

I said my piece earlier.  

If the over-top high pressure continues to combined with that odd mid level height implosion tendency over the M/A, any warm up in the deterministic runs cannot be trusted.  They'll start kicking the can.

Which, it may be that said guidance' et al are breaking that large scale scaffolding too fast - 'nother way to look at it.

Nope, we're well on our way to the warmest September ever with cold hands during the afternoons

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sunday looks warm

 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I said my piece earlier.  

If the over-top high pressure continues to combined with that odd mid level height implosion tendency over the M/A, any warm up in the deterministic runs cannot be trusted.  They'll start kicking the can.

Which, it may be that said guidance' et al are breaking that large scale scaffolding too fast - 'nother way to look at it.

Nope, we're well on our way to the warmest September ever with cold hands during the afternoons

I haven't looked too heavily but I thought it seemed a bit weird how the GFS warms 850/925 Saturday and Sunday despite a flow which did not seem favorable. I would figure we would want to see at least even a weak westerly flow in the warm llvls to advect the airmass over the OV in. 

Now...it does look like there could be some over the top spillage into northern New England but I also question whether we'll mix as deep as the GFS is suggesting. 

[Typhoon Tip]

you know ... this occurs to me more and more as we age further along into climate apocalypse...

Does some of the autumn cooling in the hemisphere actually start under these statically stranded cloud fields like this.  Weak/weakening sun by day, and the clouds steadily radiate heat away from their tops, and en masse, the air column cools as dew fallout from the bottom, and respiration/evaporation cools from the top.  It's like an environmental feed back that given time, cools in the absence of a CAA event. 

Because 850s are like +10.  With full sun, we'd be 73 probably, but we keep getting colder underneath this synoptically decoupled saturated dungeon.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

I haven't looked too heavily but I thought it seemed a bit weird how the GFS warms 850/925 Saturday and Sunday despite a flow which did not seem favorable. I would figure we would want to see at least even a weak westerly flow in the warm llvls to advect the airmass over the OV in. 

Now...it does look like there could be some over the top spillage into northern New England but I also question whether we'll mix as deep as the GFS is suggesting. 

Yeah, me neither.  But we'll see.

I'm not trying to be heavy handed, just observations of the runs versus where we are now... The extrapolation and experience, together, sort of pump the breaks.  If things change, they change -

That said, the D6+ Euro and GGEM were pretty coherently stopping the cold source while elevating the lower troposheric thermal medium. 

 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

HIE with 34F.  Bet Alex and Diane frosted?

32 at FVE, HUL, probably upper 20s at Estcourt Station.  Reached 36 here, will flirt with 32 tomorrow morning, last chance for Sept frost.

Ophelia precip here:  0.00"

[CoastalWx]

My temp actually has dropped to its low for the day. 57.2. Looks like lower dews advecting in causing evaporational cooling off the ocean. 

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, tamarack said:

probably upper 20s at Estcourt Station.

26.4F

[dendrite]

FVE pulled off that 32F with wind. That's impressive.

[kdxken]

Just ran into these fellas.

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Sun making an appearance in Leominster Ma

[Go Kart Mozart]

It looks like heavy Norlun warnings down here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It may persist in NE Mass a bit longer ...

I mean you're right by sat, west of there, but there's a pretty persistent NE jet along and off the Maine coast that's moving across those weirdly warmer than normal SSTs, and it's creating OES enhanced strata field.

There's always a detail to fu up a solution -

Yea, I am probably porked.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I am probably porked.

heh... probably another hour and change longer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

heh... probably another hour and change longer.

I'm in Chelsea until 4, anyway.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

FVE pulled off that 32F with wind. That's impressive.

That’s on a plateau of almost a 1000 ft too, in Frenchville, ME. Very impressive. 

[dryslot]

3 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Will we ever see the F'ng sun again? Good god.

After 3 days your bitching? Try 3 days of sun in June up here and July wasn't much better...........

[Cyclone-68]

No sun here

[Typhoon Tip]

Brian's clearing came SW, ... west of 495 and almost to the Pike and gaining this hour.  Some overriding cirrus but we've recovered to the low 60s.

Satellite trends continue to thin, anyway.

[Typhoon Tip]

12Z GFS even spares the 'continental tuck' at D7 and keeps that cold from calving SW ...

Sets us up for a few days of > normals.  How much so, or if this run even verifies... unknown

[Sn0waddict]

Looks like endless sun and highs near 80 if the GFS is right after Saturday.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Looks like endless sun and highs near 80 if the GFS is right after Saturday.

I want endless rain