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Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso


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1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Case in point:  January 2023.  It was the mildest of 25 Januarys here, 1.7° above the previous "winner", 2006.  It also was 3rd snowiest, only 0.1" shy of 30" and 10" AN.

39 this morning, 1st sub-40 of the season.  (Median date for 1st frost was last Tuesday.  50/50 chance of being our 3rd September w/o a frost.)

Just going by the end of today's 12z GFS run, Taking it verbatim, I think we would hold off until around the 8th of Oct as there is a cold air mass that was heading SE out of Canada in that time frame into here.

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19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m trolling a little bit, but the euro keeps slicing and dicing QPF north of the pike. 

It was also about 8 mb too weak with initialization of O this morning...

My thinking is that a stronger 0 will consolidate the moisture ... well, basically just change the synoptic landscape.  The idea of ejecting the isentrop lift plume really is/was a residual warm front but the identity of that is in question when it is attached to a developing TC. 

The other models are weaker with that lead stuff and they are also deeper with the O

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17 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Foliage looks like ass this year. Especially the maples.

There's an unusual amount of blight/Septoria that's in the canopy of a lot of species, not just Maples... 

My lilacs wilted brown and downed by early August.  Now, they are budding again and even put out a feeble bouquet or two.   Never saw an autumn bloom from this species lilac - some do but not this one.  It almost reminds me of the 2nd green up in 2011 November post the Octo snow. It's as though the organism is trying to eke out a growth cycle before the sun's really gone

I was reading that there is an unusual plague of it because of historically high DPs this summer.  So, a lot of trees are going straight to brown.  It's probably still present.  Even our "dry" days up until just this recency have been like 64 dps.

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5 hours ago, mreaves said:

Dendrite posted maps for the last 10 years or so a few pages back.  It has varied from year to year.

Definitely agree. Up here I’d say on average peak is around the first week of October but it does vary a lot - and the duration also varies quite a bit. Sometimes it seems to last forever and sometimes it seems like the next day is gone

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