Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gfs tells most to enjoy the weekend:

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs tells most to enjoy the weekend:

Wet cloudy drizzley for all south of NHampshire. Should be awesome 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Wet cloudy drizzley for all south of NHampshire. Should be awesome 

Better than 2-3” washout. We’ll see. Your pony is more wet on Sunday but it also cut back totals. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Now post the Mesos and GGEM

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Better than 2-3” washout. We’ll see. Your pony is more wet on Sunday but it also cut back totals. 

Not gonna make a huge difference unless it’s dry…and that GFS isn’t dry for CT. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea…you might as well post the navy too then. Lets get all the winter models out for this.

It’s not going to be a coc wknd unfortunately but the less qpf the better.

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not gonna make a huge difference unless it’s dry…and that GFS isn’t dry for CT. 

yep a half inch of rain spread over a day isn't much different that 2 inches...

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Now post the Mesos and GGEM

CMC and RGEM have been consistently wet...if their solutions happen it's a big coup as they have showed it for a week  The RGEM is still raining for most of CT/RI at hour 84

[Brian5671]

CMC:

[dryslot]

No changes.

[Damage In Tolland]

Absolute soaker incoming . Blows 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

@ Electric blue Absolute soaker In my pantalones  ,  Big Blows Coming 

what’s your forecast for this weekend if you have a moment 

[nutmegfriar]

Good weekend to do some cooking, watch football, and listen to the waterfall rage.

[WinterWolf]

49 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No changes.

Ya…you’ll probably stay dry. Not the case here. 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

yep a half inch of rain spread over a day isn't much different that 2 inches...

In the real sense of it, I agree. You’re not gonna be doing yard work or hanging outside on your patio, or eating outside at your favorite pub/restaurant.   Ya you won’t flood with a half to 3/4 of an inch, but the sensible weather still sucks. 
 

If it was snow, and you’re talking 3-6”, vs 18-24”+,  then sure that’s a huge difference in that regard. But this is rain, and wet is wet. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

In the real sense of it, I agree. You’re not gonna be doing yard work or hanging outside on your patio, or eating outside at your favorite pub/restaurant.   Ya you won’t flood with a half to 3/4 of an inch, the sensible weather still sucks. 
 

If it was snow, and you’re talking 3-6”, vs 18-24”+,  then sure that’s a huge difference in that regard. But this is rain, and wet is wet. 

that's part of the reason no one mentions rain busting....if the forecast is for 2 inches and it rains .50, it's still a rainy day-with snow everyone's hollering bust when it happens

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

In winter 23/24, the euro will bust. In the fall though…

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that's part of the reason no one mentions rain busting....if the forecast is for 2 inches and it rains .50, it's still a rainy day-with snow everyone's hollering bust when it happens

Absolutely.  And that’s our point.  Nobody cares if it’s 1 or 2 or a half inch…it doesn’t really matter as you said.  Weekend is shot. 

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that's part of the reason no one mentions rain busting....if the forecast is for 2 inches and it rains .50, it's still a rainy day-with snow everyone's hollering bust when it happens

TauntonBlizz has entered the chat.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

In winter 23/24, the euro will bust. In the fall though…

Correct. As I always say, weather has its own sense of irony many times.  
 

as you eluded to, the Euro will nail this…2.5-3.0 months from now it’ll shat the bed. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Shocker. When aren’t they above?  That doesn’t bother me at all. I’ll take my chances. Last year was the worst, no way we beat(get worse)than last years rat here…no way. 

Plus ( for the 187th time ...)

... those categories don't 'ruin' winter - so to speak.  They don't quantitatively define the extent of any anomaly.

They literally just mean, there is an above normal chance for above normal.

Nothing else. 

This point is either tactically evaded ... or, not understood despite the explained 187 (est lol ) remedial course work.  Even a Down's student would get it by now for f'sake

I mean seriously, can this point get across once and for all ?  

If the winter averaged .01 F above normal, ...guess what?   that product NAILED it!   But .01 above normal with an actually coupled warm ENSO hemisphere would bury everyone alive N of Jersey. 

Now... it is just unfortunate enough that 'above normal' could also mean the warmest winter in history.  Sure.  

But for now the 188th time ( est ) ...that product does not ruin winter. It only says 'chances of above normal' and nothing else.  It should not be used as NARCAN ...nor divisively by those that want to yank short brown ones - either way.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Plus ( for the 187th time ...)

... those categories don't 'ruin' winter - so to speak.  They don't quantitatively define the extent of any anomaly.

They literally just mean, there is an above normal chance for above normal.

Nothing else. 

This point is either tactically evaded ... or, not understood despite the explained 187 (est lol ) remedial course work.  Even a Down's student would get it by now for f'sake

I mean seriously, can this point get across once and for all ?  

If the winter averaged .01 F above normal, ...guess what?   that product NAILED it!   But .01 above normal with an actually coupled warm ENSO hemisphere would bury everyone alive N of Jersey. 

Now... it is just unfortunate enough that 'above normal' could also mean the warmest winter in history.  Sure.  

But for now the 188th time ( est ) ...that product does not ruin winter. It only says 'chances of above normal' and nothing else.  It should not be used as NARCAN ...nor divisively by those that want to yank short brown ones

Exactly…I completely understand their silly maps. And I agree 100%. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm staring to lean more blocking, myself. 

I think there is some synoptic oomph for imposing isentropic lift over the region on Saturday. But even it would seem more intense SW, vs NE zones of SNE.  By Sunday morning...  I could see this trend in the models to "split" the overrunning momentum E, while the residual Ophelia is held back closer to bombing eastern PA/NJ with a flood threat.

Obviously we've all been onto this weekend's synoptic shenanigans, no need to readdress. But I just think along years of experience with these evolving deformation axis, roughly ALB to BOS ...and they usually end up correcting the moisture to a pretty sharp gradient as far as what ends up in buckets.

 

[dendrite]

50-60% chance for above

So 40-50% chance for near normal or below. 

But snowfall here is more dependent on precip than temp anyway. 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

50-60% chance for above

So 40-50% chance for near normal or below. 

But snowfall here is more dependent on precip than temp anyway. 

+1 or 2 in Jan means nothing, Just get the precip in here, It will snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

50-60% chance for above

So 40-50% chance for near normal or below. 

But snowfall here is more dependent on precip than temp anyway. 

at some point you just have to move on  haha. 

cuz despite the cleanliness of our efforts, we'll go through this exact same game next Sept/Oct, with the same people posting those red(blue) colors apparently basing a NARCAN(dopamine) dose upon them.

[dryslot]

Chilly morning here as we got down to 43°F, Coldest so far and on the cusp of fall today.

[dryslot]

53 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya…you’ll probably stay dry. Not the case here. 

Nothing has changed at all up here on this, This to me looked to stay south into SNE below the pike mainly.

[weatherwiz]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Something to look forward to ?

Some forecast

Just threw all strong EL Nino's together. Yes, strong EL Nino's have a tendency to be above-average in terms of temperatures across the northern-tier of the country, but there are strong EL Nino's which were colder. Can't just throw a bunch of years into a composite and call it a forecast or outlook.