Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso

[Spanks45]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There is still a lot to resolve when it comes to what we can expect. I would think there is going to be a very sharp cutoff and gradient within the region. It's just a matter of where that gradient resides. There also appear to be two viable solutions 

1. An all out rain/flooding event along/south of the Pike as the NAM suggests 

2. A two part event where we get one round of heavy rain associated with warm front/strong warm air advection, which diminishes rapidly as the system occludes and then a second round as the decaying circulation passes nearby. 

Regardless, the weekend is going to be crap...cool, breezy, cloudy, rain but it's a question of just how crappy and whether we have significant flooding concerns. East facing slopes of the southern Berkshires into the Litchfield Hills could be a secondary max area for upslope enhanced totals. 

But if we get fronto aligned just north of Long Island across southern Connecticut and southern Rhode Island I'm afraid flooding could be quite significant. 

Then into early next week looks cool and unsettled right now as this thing looks to meander around with onshore flow.... need that high pressure to push in and clear everything out

[CoastalWx]

Keep it away.

 

In any case, looks uneventful here. Yawn.

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Keep it away.

 

In any case, looks uneventful here. Yawn.

It’s coming for you….rain and sheet drizzle all weekend in Weymouth unfortunately. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s coming for you….rain and sheet drizzle all weekend in Weymouth unfortunately. 

I planned on it by or after lunch for a few days. Just a matter of how much.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I planned on it by or after lunch for a few days. Just a matter of how much.

Agreed.  I was hoping for dry too…but I don’t think it happens unfortunately. 

[ineedsnow]

Lol long range GFS

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Lol long range GFS

Is that cane still there? 

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Is that cane still there? 

Comes way west after looking ots and does a loop off the maine  coast lol

[Cyclone-68]

I want Nova Scotia’s top secret hurricane magnet 

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Lol long range GFS

Fujiwara with an ULL off the east coast.

[Typhoon Tip]

posted some thoughts in the tropical thread re the region east of Florida and implications up the coast.

[SouthCoastMA]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

cloudy with a few showers? rain moves back in Sunday night   weekend cancel 

looks dry first half of Sunday..but yes shitty weekend

[Layman]

For the meteorologists and advanced hobbyists who've been doing this for some time, when deciphering model output, would you say you have more confidence in what the models are spitting out or is it more so your interpretation based on your experience of what the models are outputting?

From a 3rd party layman's perspective, it appears that determinations are made based on what a model suggests, or rather it's evolution in getting to whatever the model is currently suggesting, however that can change rather dramatically by the time the next output is delivered.  

Seems like highly complicated business and not really for those who like/need hard and fast, black and white answers!

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, Layman said:

For the meteorologists and advanced hobbyists who've been doing this for some time, when deciphering model output, would you say you have more confidence in what the models are spitting out or is it more so your interpretation based on your experience of what the models are outputting?

From a 3rd party layman's perspective, it appears that determinations are made based on what a model suggests, or rather it's evolution in getting to whatever the model is currently suggesting, however that can change rather dramatically by the time the next output is delivered.  

Seems like highly complicated business and not really for those who like/need hard and fast, black and white answers!

I’d think it is your second paragraph. 

[NW_of_GYX]

That h5 trough digging to baja on the long range ensembles is giving me weenie deja vu in a bad way. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

There is still a lot to resolve when it comes to what we can expect. I would think there is going to be a very sharp cutoff and gradient within the region. It's just a matter of where that gradient resides. There also appear to be two viable solutions 

1. An all out rain/flooding event along/south of the Pike as the NAM suggests 

2. A two part event where we get one round of heavy rain associated with warm front/strong warm air advection, which diminishes rapidly as the system occludes and then a second round as the decaying circulation passes nearby. 

Regardless, the weekend is going to be crap...cool, breezy, cloudy, rain but it's a question of just how crappy and whether we have significant flooding concerns. East facing slopes of the southern Berkshires into the Litchfield Hills could be a secondary max area for upslope enhanced totals. 

But if we get fronto aligned just north of Long Island across southern Connecticut and southern Rhode Island I'm afraid flooding could be quite significant. 

And how much wind damage there may be 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s coming for you….rain and sheet drizzle all weekend in Weymouth unfortunately. 

S Wey 

[Typhoon Tip]

That models are there to offer plausible scenarios.

It's up to the operational Meteorologists (forecasters) to determine the likeliness of any given solution, or the consensus thereof.

In the early days of modeling, there was much more bandwidth for "reasonable doubt"  Forecasting relied upon more of a combination of the model solutions together with experience and/or particular insights of the forecaster.  

However, in more recent/modern eras, modeling has improved enough that the forecaster doesn't need to be as much of an 'artist' in shorter lead times  - in fact... sometimes now, particularly for < D4(ish), more and more forecasters still attempt to out fox or think the models, and end up eating it for having doubted.

The speculation game ( using education, experience and intuition) in forecasting has shifted more toward ~ D3, increasing days 4 or 5, and almost completely necessary beyond D7s.

[Ginx snewx]

Saturday and Sunady stay in the 50s all day with rain on the Euro. Awesome 

[Layman]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That models are there to offer plausible scenarios.

It's up to the operational Meteorologists (forecasters) to determine the likeliness of any given solution, or the consensus thereof.

In the early days of modeling, there was much more bandwidth for "reasonable doubt"  Forecasting relied upon more of a combination of the model solutions together with experience and/or particular insights of the forecaster.  

However, in more recent/modern eras, modeling has improved enough that the forecaster doesn't need to be as much of an 'artist' in shorter lead times  - in fact... sometimes now, particularly for < D4(ish), more and more forecasters still attempt to out fox or think the models, and end up eating it for having doubted.

The speculation game ( using education, experience and intuition) in forecasting has shifted more toward ~ D3, increasing days 4 or 5, and almost completely necessary beyond D7s.

Interesting.  Logically it makes sense that a "cone of certainty" or confidence narrows as you approach the start of a weather event but it's interesting to consider what contributes to that confidence at longer lead times.  

I recall a time or two last winter when you had a high level of confidence in something materializing at long lead times - 10-15 or so days out.  I don't remember the finer details of the storm, but do remember one of them blossomed into a region-wide event.  

With respect to model improvements in recent years, is there a way to quantify that?  

For example, is it in terms of "Model X is correct XX% of the time" or is it more nuanced than that?  

I ask because it seems like there can be drastic fluctuations from run to run.  One run showing an event in SNE only to have it move 100's of miles north in the next run, etc.  Although, maybe pinpointing specific areas (IMBYism) is more of an individual human response rather than a testament to the reliability of a model output...?  I.e.: it's going to rain in a general area and it could be SNE, CNE or some combination thereof.  

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Saturday and Sunady stay in the 50s all day with rain on the Euro. Awesome 

Ya that’s gonna suck…no warm dews there, just damp raw autumnal rain. 

[WinterWolf]

31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

S Wey 

Thanks. 

[ineedsnow]

easy forecast

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

easy forecast

Ya just throw a dart. 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Not a single tomato. Must have been the stupid rain.

 

Holy shit. How do you trim that  My buddies got ripped off last night

[tamarack]

5 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

ever been to Marthas Vineyard? that place is seriously infested with skunks. Camped at the campground a few times in the past. once the sun goes down, they invade the campsites looking for scraps. but they never spray. i had one rubbing up against my legs one time, like it was a cat. it was hard to sit still lol

One evening when we lived in Gardiner, I was taking garbage out to the curb when a very young skunk walked right up to me, sniffed, then walked away.  I had one black bag and one white, so maybe it thought I was Mother.
When my older brother was doing outdoor bivouac during Ranger School, he woke up to find a skunk sleeping on his chest.  A few cautious wiggles and the critter ambled off.  Brother expressed how glad he was that it wasn't a cottonmouth.

 I was being a bit sarcastic regarding all this supposed warm water.  Not so warm after all. thanks for the charts. 

SSTs on Casco Bay were near 70 a week or so ago, then Lee brought up water from where the lobsters live.  Any TC heading here now would need to be going faster than 1938 to reach PWM alive.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Holy shit. My buddies got ripped off last night

Your buddies living in my past world, All the hard work for a few months then gone in 12hrs.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Your buddies living in my past world, All the hard work for a few months then gone in 12hrs.

We dry and can. Variety is the spice of life.5 different strains. Edibles out of sugar leaves 

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We dry and can. Variety is the spice of life.5 different strains. Edibles out of sugar leaves 

Yes, Trim, Keep the sugar leaves, Hang them upside down dry it out, I mason jar them after, They keep a very long time, I have some Choc Kush that will rock your world on two hits but is great for pain management...............lol

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes, Trim, Keep the sugar leaves, Hang them upside down dry it out, I mason jar them, They keep a very long time.

Case of Mason jars quarts ready to go