Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think the heavy rain will get inland some…maybe not that far north of the pike..but south of the pike I think is in for some good rain.  

agreed

[weatherwiz]

TS warnings up to Delaware 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

TS warnings up to Delaware 

Very Interesting.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Very Interesting.

going to be some decent winds right up along the coast for sure

[WinterWolf]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

going to be some decent winds right up along the coast for sure

Yes, this seems to be heading in a more impactful direction for a lot of folks, from NC on north. At least we have something to watch.

[Cyclone-68]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Had this exact same thing happen to me years ago in my driveway in the dark. I thought it was a cat coming up the driveway in the dark, and I didn’t give it a thought, and this skunk comes right up and brushed against my leg with some decent force as a cat would do…And just kept on walking.  Absolutely surprised/startled the crap out of me. It was something I’ll never forget. 

Yikes. Glad it wasn’t rabid 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes, this seems to be heading in a more impactful direction for a lot of folks, from NC on north. At least we have something to watch.

seems like a nasty angle too for coastal NC potentially. Good thing it's not a significantly stronger storm.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes, this seems to be heading in a more impactful direction for a lot of folks, from NC on north. At least we have something to watch.

Homebrew delivers. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Homebrew delivers. 

Yes, many times it does.  I’m interested to see what the modeling looks like going forward with this. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes, many times it does.  I’m interested to see what the modeling looks like going forward with this. 

I think there’s a good chance this keeps trending a little stronger. The 50kt opening bid by the NHC is a nod to those stronger global runs. Looks pretty wet here. Not sure how that’ll trend. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think there’s a good chance this keeps trending a little stronger. The 50kt opening bid by the NHC is a nod to those stronger global runs. Looks pretty wet here. Not sure how that’ll trend. 

Agreed.  I think the wet idea for SNE is a pretty sure assumption …just how much rain is the question currently.  I’m thinking an inch is a pretty sure bet for most of CT at the moment…And probably more. 

[Damage In Tolland]

They may extend TS warnings up the NH/ MA coastal border by the time this continues the NW trends 

[WxWatcher007]

Nah, this should go over NC and into the Mid-Atlantic. Makes it post tropical up our way unless it trends east and stays off the coast—even then the waters north of the GS are cold.

 

Shear is high off the SE coast too so while I think it can trend a little stronger there is a ceiling. 

[ma blizzard]

Will be interesting to see if this will be the LLC or if it reforms further NE towards the convection as the day goes on

lets see if we can start to generate some shallow convection near the LLC 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It will happen again, just when is the question.  Sept 21 1938 a day of remembering those lost in my hometown of Westerly RI. A beach town that sees tens of thousands of tourists a day in summer was destroyed. Horrific loss of life. Left an imprint on my family forever.

My grandmother grew up in the Fall River area and she was just a little kid at the time, but remembered this storm. She passed like 15 years ago, but I remember her talking about it on several occasions 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

My grandmother grew up in the Fall River area and she was just a little kid at the time, but remembered this storm. She passed like 15 years ago, but I remember her talking about it on several occasions 

Yea Fall river was toasted by that 20 foot plus surge. Definitely left an indelible mark.

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nah, this should go over NC and into the Mid-Atlantic. Makes it post tropical up our way unless it trends east and stays off the coast—even then the waters north of the GS are cold.

 

Shear is high off the SE coast too so while I think it can trend a little stronger there is a ceiling. 

But but but…the waters are so anomalously warm in the Atlantic off New England, is all we hear lol…I guess not warm enough to support any tropical entity.  

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

But but but…the waters are so anomalously warm in the Atlantic off New England, is all we hear lol…I guess not warm enough to support any tropical entity.  

Here are the anomalies

 

And actual temps

[weatherwiz]

let's keep it that way heading into winter

[WinterWolf]

Thanks Don.
 

 I was being a bit sarcastic regarding all this supposed warm water.  Not so warm after all. thanks for the charts. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

let's keep it that way heading into winter

Keep the rain/snow line over Manhattan please  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12z gfs is north of 6z. Looks wet for many in SNE

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

.5-1” of rain for many south of the pike on the gfs, with 2”+ pushing up a little bit past the cape 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

12z gfs is north of 6z. Looks wet for many in SNE

It’s coming up…weekend toast. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s coming up…weekend toast. 

We tried to tell em

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12z Canadian is an absolute flooder late Saturday into Sunday. Looks like those juiced up runs from earlier in the week. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We tried to tell em

Yup…there was a lil hope it might stay south, but that looks to be fading fast now. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

12z Canadian is an absolute flooder late Saturday into Sunday. Looks like those juiced up runs from earlier in the week. 

I think that’s ultimately where this is headed  in the end unfortunately. 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

12z Canadian is an absolute flooder late Saturday into Sunday. Looks like those juiced up runs from earlier in the week. 

It shifted very slightly south though from 00z.  It had 2” to Canada almost.  Now tries to spare us a little?

It’s been flooding the whole region with water for a few runs.

 

 

[weatherwiz]

There is still a lot to resolve when it comes to what we can expect. I would think there is going to be a very sharp cutoff and gradient within the region. It's just a matter of where that gradient resides. There also appear to be two viable solutions 

1. An all out rain/flooding event along/south of the Pike as the NAM suggests 

2. A two part event where we get one round of heavy rain associated with warm front/strong warm air advection, which diminishes rapidly as the system occludes and then a second round as the decaying circulation passes nearby. 

Regardless, the weekend is going to be crap...cool, breezy, cloudy, rain but it's a question of just how crappy and whether we have significant flooding concerns. East facing slopes of the southern Berkshires into the Litchfield Hills could be a secondary max area for upslope enhanced totals. 

But if we get fronto aligned just north of Long Island across southern Connecticut and southern Rhode Island I'm afraid flooding could be quite significant.