ineedsnow Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: For those that care, I think this has a really good shot of becoming a named subtropical storm (Ophelia) and a decent shot of acquiring tropical characteristics right before a NC landfall. The guidance has continued to trend stronger and more organized with the low as it makes that final approach. GFS has led the way on this one, but if anything the Euro has become the wetter model here south of pike. 06z Euro wettest yet of those euro runs. NC as a tropical storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 No changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Nice swell in the water courtesy of Nigel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: NC as a tropical storm Look at SHIPS. This one looks legit on the guidance. GFS leads the way. We've had some good quick spin ups in recent years off the SE coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Look at SHIPS. This one looks legit on the guidance. GFS leads the way. We've had some good quick spin ups in recent years off the SE coast. water temps plenty warm for them its to bad we couldnt get this to ride just off the coast and bring something more up here... just not our year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya was just gonna say that…a lot were trying to wish it away…I was one, but it’s been there in varying degrees pretty much the whole time. Meh or not..wet is wet. This looks like a PVD-PYM SE jack. Always has. Not sure how much N and W. I never said no rain, just delayed and probably under half inch for many into Sunday. Best chance of more is South of 90-84 and especially the areas I mentioned above. Looks like some of the horses are going to the glue factory in China. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Funny you mention that. Last week there was one sitting right by the curb on a lawn in my neighborhood. It was dark but I saw something moving and as I got closer it stopped and I realized what it was. Thankfully it did not come after me . I bolted over to other side of street and ran very fast looking over shoulder.. just like the time I saw the bear this past spring. About 15 years ago when rabid critters by the hundred were being encountered in Maine, we had a smallish skunk wandering around the house in early afternoon, not their usual active time. Our Lab got a small dose - fortunately, she'd had her anti-rabies shot 5 days earlier - and finally my old .22 Mossberg ended the episode. I could've had the skunk tested (for $125 out-of-pocket) but its behavior was convincing. Low 40s this morning, very fallish. Maybe U30s tomorrow? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This looks like a PVD-PYM SE jack. Always has. Not sure how much N and W. I never said no rain, just delayed and probably under half inch for many into Sunday. Best chance of more is South of 90-84 and especially the areas I mentioned above. Looks like some of the horses are going to the glue factory in China. ill take the over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 might be able to salvage Sunday per the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: might be able to salvage Sunday per the euro cloudy with a few showers? rain moves back in Sunday night weekend cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: cloudy with a few showers? rain moves back in Sunday night weekend cancel yep looks like crap both days especially CT/RI/SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 24 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: ill take the over Are you still tracking Lee? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 24 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: ill take the over Part 1 Saturday? Looks meh for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 56 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Unfortunately most of SNE is S of the pike. it's where the people live.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Are you still tracking Lee? Lee is snowing in Greenland now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 12z NAM really bottoming out for 99l roadtrip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z NAM really bottoming out for 99l roadtrip? doesn't the NAM often overdo tropical systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Gotta wonder how far north the heavy rain will really get. That ridging is pretty damn strong. Also being enhanced by that longwave trough digging into the PAC NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 10 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Fascinating critters. They are actually non-aggressive and prefer not to spray unless necessary. Great pest control and fun to watch as long as you keep your pets away. Most mammals won't mess with them. ever been to Marthas Vineyard? that place is seriously infested with skunks. Camped at the campground a few times in the past. once the sun goes down, they invade the campsites looking for scraps. but they never spray. i had one rubbing up against my legs one time, like it was a cat. it was hard to sit still lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 I'm wondering if southern Connecticut through southern Rhode Island might get smacked pretty hard with rain and flooding. Wouldn't be surprised to see fronto setup here. We've seen some similar instances of this over the past several years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: doesn't the NAM often overdo tropical systems? It does, but the general trend has been stronger on the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 PTC 16 coming at 11 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It does, but the general trend has been stronger on the globals. Also, I wouldn't go about this as a typical tropical system. For this system, it's important to understand the dynamical forces and processes behind the development of the low pressure and strengthening of the low pressure. This is going to be a near textbook definition of dynamics at work these next few days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCD17 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 I already had to reseed after Wednesday's deluge washed away my grass seed. Then Saturday washed some of that away. Saturday's rain could be the nail in the coffin, although I'm probably 70% sprouted already, so we could survive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Also, I wouldn't go about this as a typical tropical system. For this system, it's important to understand the dynamical forces and processes behind the development of the low pressure and strengthening of the low pressure. This is going to be a near textbook definition of dynamics at work these next few days. Agree. This looks like an uncommon SE homebrew in the sense that it’s forming on an old boundary and not getting shunted ENE out to sea. Atlantic ridging FTW. Might have some good gusts along the CT and LI coast with the gradient from the developing high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Congrats NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Agree. This looks like an uncommon SE homebrew in the sense that it’s forming on an old boundary and not getting shunted ENE out to sea. Atlantic ridging FTW. Might have some good gusts along the CT and LI coast with the gradient from the developing high to the north. yeah coastal areas are going to be on the windy side for sure Saturday and it should be pretty breezy just inland too. I wonder if there is an outside shot at some hurricane-force gusts (say 75-80) along parts of coastal SC/NC. Want to see what the GFS has but the NAM develops some 80+ knot winds at 925...most likely remaining over the open waters. If I lived right along the coast or in emergency response it's something I would definitely want to keep in the back of my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 It will happen again, just when is the question. Sept 21 1938 a day of remembering those lost in my hometown of Westerly RI. A beach town that sees tens of thousands of tourists a day in summer was destroyed. Horrific loss of life. Left an imprint on my family forever. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 24 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: ever been to Marthas Vineyard? that place is seriously infested with skunks. Camped at the campground a few times in the past. once the sun goes down, they invade the campsites looking for scraps. but they never spray. i had one rubbing up against my legs one time, like it was a cat. it was hard to sit still lol Had this exact same thing happen to me years ago in my driveway in the dark. I thought it was a cat coming up the driveway in the dark, and I didn’t give it a thought, and this skunk comes right up and brushed against my leg with some decent force as a cat would do…And just kept on walking. Absolutely surprised/startled the crap out of me. It was something I’ll never forget. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 29 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm wondering if southern Connecticut through southern Rhode Island might get smacked pretty hard with rain and flooding. Wouldn't be surprised to see fronto setup here. We've seen some similar instances of this over the past several years. I think the heavy rain will get inland some…maybe not that far north of the pike..but south of the pike I think is in for some good rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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