WinterWolf Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That would be a boatload of rain on the NAM. I guess you can hope for occlusion to eventually shut the system down but many ingredients in place for us to get smoked. Could you post the output Wiz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: Could you post the output Wiz? One thing looking at (and on all models) is the strengthening low-level jet. Pretty robust easterly flow overspreading southern New England with 850-700mb warm front progressing north within the region. There is going to be a ton of moisture being thrown in our direction. We have the high to the north so there is potential this system could become suppressed. I think we either get slammed with rain or get lucky...don't think there is an in between. Would have to check into tides but I would also think coastal flooding could be a concern as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Thanks for the explanation too Wiz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: One thing looking at (and on all models) is the strengthening low-level jet. Pretty robust easterly flow overspreading southern New England with 850-700mb warm front progressing north within the region. There is going to be a ton of moisture being thrown in our direction. We have the high to the north so there is potential this system could become suppressed. I think we either get slammed with rain or get lucky...don't think there is an in between. Would have to check into tides but I would also think coastal flooding could be a concern as well. Dangerous flood situation ... one whose total circumstance began to materialize way back in June. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Dangerous flood situation ... one whose total circumstance began to materialize way back in June. Even if the duration of the rain ends up being on the short side of the spectrum, the rainfall rates are going to be intense. Lots of rain will fall in a very short amount of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 GFS sagging south. Good to see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 That NAM run ruins the weekend up here. Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: GFS sagging south. Good to see. How far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS sagging south. Good to see. yeah, hoping for the NAMian penchants for being too far NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: How far south? below the sniff line 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: How far south? mostly OTS. Icon also east, CMC also took a jump east. May end up being a whole lot of nothing if the system heads NE too far out to sea - 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Step outside and enjoy the COC man. In Bangor. It’s warm here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Cool and raw. Dews mostly 50s, same with temps. 60’s pike south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: mostly OTS. Icon also east, CMC also took a jump east. May end up being a whole lot of nothing if the system heads NE too far out to sea - oh how we pray that is right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: oh how we pray that is right This has plenty more f room to keep coming north rains to Maines. Not a suppressed pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: oh how we pray that is right could be windshield wiper time--who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: could be windshield wiper time--who knows... That’s still a half inch plus for a lot of the area though. Let’s hope it trends a lil more south next run. Or it’s still a Rainey Saturday…just not huge amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That’s still a half inch plus for a lot of the area though. Let’s hope it trends a lil more south next run. Or it’s still a Rainey Saturday…just not huge amounts. that would suck-a half inch of rain on Saturday-run of the mill...if we're going to ruin a weekend lets make it memorable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Get it out of here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: that would suck-a half inch of rain on Saturday-run of the mill...if we're going to ruin a weekend lets make it memorable That’s exactly my point…it would still suck, but be just a run of the mill crap show. I agree 100%…if it’s gonna be lousy, then let’s do it right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Get it out of here. Now that we’re hoping for that…it’ll find a way of somehow getting up in here. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 No diss on Wiz at all but people hate snow maps because they are basically fiction. Have to say the same with the NAM when it comes to severe and QPF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 38 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: mostly OTS. Icon also east, CMC also took a jump east. May end up being a whole lot of nothing if the system heads NE too far out to sea - Canadian was pretty high impact. GFS as you said kind of slid everything south but it’s close. There’s still a lot of spread on this low’s intensity and progression for what’s essentially a short range forecast. It’s hard to lean against persistence—what rain event have we missed since July—but that high may keep us dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 No changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Canadian was pretty high impact. GFS as you said kind of slid everything south but it’s close. There’s still a lot of spread on this low’s intensity and progression for what’s essentially a short range forecast. It’s hard to lean against persistence—what rain event have we missed since July—but that high may keep us dry. uh oh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Canadian was pretty high impact. GFS as you said kind of slid everything south but it’s close. There’s still a lot of spread on this low’s intensity and progression for what’s essentially a short range forecast. It’s hard to lean against persistence—what rain event have we missed since July—but that high may keep us dry. CMC jumped east though-had big rains to Pittsburgh now it's just west of philly-may be correcting towards the OTS guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: No diss on Wiz at all but people hate snow maps because they are basically fiction. Have to say the same with the NAM when it comes to severe and QPF. NAM is still out of range this far out as well....best when we're within 36 hrs or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: mostly OTS. Icon also east, CMC also took a jump east. May end up being a whole lot of nothing if the system heads NE too far out to sea - ? CMC crushes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Just now, Brian5671 said: NAM is still out of range this far out as well....best when we're within 36 hrs or so.... IDK been watching and it's brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: No diss on Wiz at all but people hate snow maps because they are basically fiction. Have to say the same with the NAM when it comes to severe and QPF. Since I do trash on the snow maps I'll say it also irritates me when people just run to hodographs, supercell composite parameter, and significant tornado parameter to justify a potential tornado outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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