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Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso


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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

The darkness sucks. 

You didn't ask for this I'm just commiserating:

I'm sensing over the last 10 years or so of this engagement that some of the more dependable rocks of endearment to the winter season are beginning to erode their preferences, too, just as I am. Perhaps around the same rate as Greenland ice post 2000 ...  lol.

I'm probably being more reflective in that statement actually.  I've noticed in me, more and more so I feel a hesitation as the day light shortens.  I'm not so sure it's day-light related, though.  I've always been sort of 'willing' to sacrifice the sun set by 4:10 because it was tied to a necessity for get exciting winter events to occur.  It's always been about the entertainment and experience of winter's fare. 

The problem is ... the fare's been rained out too many times in the last 10 years.  I actually knew  or suspected anyway ... 2015's remarkable February was unsustainable.  Heh, obviously. But it seems more and more so, we don't sustain 32 with 10:1 snow chances.  The wide variations of temperatures, from teens and 20s, to even 60s or 70s in the heart of winter, happens too much to settle into the mystique of winter - it just won't psycho-babble allow it.  In short, winters are being ruined.  I don't think this is just a simple matter of a "1980s" type regression, either - I lived that decade and don't recall this type of disruptive complexion to the years as they past.  Mostly, it just didn't snow around a narrower distributions of temperature.  If it rained, then froze... it was like 38 to 18... Not 72 to -10. hahaha. 

I'm zaggeratin' there of course.  My point is, it's hard to get psyched for the dimming daylight, like before, because celestial mechanics and the result of "winter" seem more and more to be uncoupling like the ENSOs people keep trying to use to predict them.

Anyway, I wonder if anyone else is just sort of ...getting f'n sick of dealing with it, and now ... we're stuck with losing the day-light and getting short-changed on that investment.  I'm not talking about 2015 February - that's some kind of 300-year return rate fluke [probably]. I'm talking about just getting a snow storm.. followed by menial cold.  Maybe it softens a little. But then a cold front slips south, refreezes, and we get a ice storm... And, there's a big dawg on the Euro for D8...

To soon to blame it on CC, perhaps <_<   But this newer version of ..whatever it is we are getting over the last 10 years is, it's been giving me pause.

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23 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

we are pretty much waiting until the last minute to book, but initial thoughts on next week, in New England? Is this thing over the weekend going to get cutoff, making for a miserable/dreary week?

Definitely potential for a shitty stretch, but nothing is a lock at this point.

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Yeah, yesterday I spent some time outlining what the guidance was more than less ( at the time ) leaning toward, but these runs overnight ... heh. While not completely divorced from the ideas proposed then, they're certainly stressing the relationship...

It's probably more sensible that there less continuity, actually, because the flow below the westerlies/polar jet, is really nebular/entropic.  We lose the structure, we are open to run-to-run chaos.

Still, there may be a something developing ( sub-tropical in nature) near the SE coast... but there's an array of equal chances as to what happens to it.  If it fails, a slug of deep PWAT rains may end up coming N anyway.  And in either case, unsure it even makes it this far N.

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3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Watches will be updated in my opinion.. enjoy the floods 

 

Today
Showers, mainly before 11am, then rain after 11am. Patchy fog before 9am. High near 66. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Tonight
Rain, mainly before 10pm. Patchy fog between 9pm and 10pm. Low around 54. North wind around 6 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

qpf_acc-imp.conus (2).png

qpf_acc-imp.conus (1).png

qpf_acc-imp.conus.png

we tried to tell them 

 

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Flood Watch
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
931 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023

CTZ002>004-MAZ004-011-012-182145-
/O.EXA.KBOX.FA.A.0014.230918T1500Z-230919T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Northern Worcester MA-Eastern
Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Fitchburg, Windsor Locks, Milford,
Putnam, Willimantic, Worcester, Springfield, Barre, Union,
Hartford, and Vernon
931 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, including the following
  areas, Hartford CT, Tolland CT and Windham CT. Portions of
  Massachusetts, including the following areas, Eastern Hampden MA,
  Northern Worcester MA and Southern Worcester MA.

* WHEN...Through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Widespread rain totals of 2-3 inches and a current 1 and 3
    hourly flash flood guidance below that threshold, combined
    with very wet antecedent soil in the watch area.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
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35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely potential for a shitty stretch, but nothing is a lock at this point.

Thanks, yeah I have definitely had a terrible string of vacations recently that have had terrible weather. Needless to say I am quite hesitant in spending a ton of money to sit inside with 4 kids...

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