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Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso


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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yay more rain. Hope euro is wrong next weekend.

That might evolve into a tropical system ...

That upper air velocity anomalies are still divergent spanning much of the Basin, including that region off the SE coast.   Granted ... that means it is based on guidance.    But, the operation/model consensus want an over-top high pressure ( sign of the changing season ...), which puts that region initially in a long fetch easterly trade, with still ample OHC and a frontalysis axis, under which there is a light westerly flow... You have cyclonic tendencies under a divergence at high levels, over warm ocean.  Not a hard calculus 

Without that, the GGEM ( also ) would plume a bulk slug of excessive rains.   The GFS, while also on the same page with the high pressure, I feel is typically going over board with the activation of the early jet/westerlies, and thus ends up with too much confluence and that creates a suppression error - I mean I'm suspicious of that... Not totally certain it's doing that on these overnight runs but looks a bit like that. 

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Too bad this isn’t winter. 
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I was noticing the NAM's recent runs really don't have much gradient with this thing. The winds at Logan on the FOUS grid are flopping around at 10 kts. Also, the LI's are around -1 at the regional scope. 

At least for the NAM's sake, this appears to be more a coincidence/artifact than it is a very good analog for a coastal/winter profile.  Just an observation.

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25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Agree with Tip—next weekend has homebrew/hybrid potential. Pretty good cross guidance signal for some kind of development off the SE coast. 

Coastal season starting early?

Did you mean 'homegrown season' starting early?   ... possibly.

op ed:  I've personally noted in autumns spanning the last 12 to 15 years ( not a hard experiment) a tendency for early arousal of the seasonal jet - by this I mean, cold season jet structures.   That tendency - I suspect - is currently in play, yet again.

The slow moving large anticyclone through Ontario and New England late in the week is a result of jet activation setting up pulsed synoptic confluence - which doesn't happen without the physical exertion of a stronger core of westerlies running by along or about the 50th.  

All that is "indirectly" relevant to the entire SW Basin climatology.  You end up with tendencies of easterly llv wind bursts into Gulf/Floridian waters every time there is a +pp anomaly over NYC.  That's sort of the relay in how the hemisphere 'activates home season early'.  

So being early, the water is still blazing away between Cape Hatteras and Miami.   Early season high pressure migrates by to the N, there is your easterly acceleration below the M/A. There may even be a westerly compensating synoptic flow south of a decaying front extending E of Georgia, whilst there's that ongoing weird hemispheric couplet in the divergence of the upper levels between the Date Line and the Atlantic.

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was noticing the NAM's recent runs really don't have much gradient with this thing. The winds at Logan on the FOUS grid are flopping around at 10 kts. Also, the LI's are around -1 at the regional scope. 

At least for the NAM's sake, this appears to be more a coincidence/artifact than it is a very good analog for a coastal/winter profile.  Just an observation.

Yeah I wasn’t reading into it that much. I just liked the fronto look up here while Methuen has a meltdown. lol

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