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Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso


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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

This is what you want. Here’s just 9/1-9/9. There were a couple of real dewy Seps back in the boomer years.

image.png

Thanks for the clarification. You got a link for that graph/data?

While this week won't rival the dews of yore in 59 and 73. It's still been a pretty historical first week of dews in September.

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From donsuntherland1 in the NYC forum.

The ECMWF weeklies had forecast temperatures to average above to much above normal across the region for the September 4-11 period. That forecast is verifying with the ongoing heatwave. September has increasingly become an extension of summer in parts of the Northeast. Since 2000, almost half of all years (48%) have had a monthly mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, just 20% of Septembers had mean temperatures of 70° or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around August 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.32°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -19.67 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.527 today.

On September 7 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.665 (RMM). The September 6-djusted amplitude was 2.560 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.6° (2.4° above normal).

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13 minutes ago, BrianW said:

From  Wdrag in the NYC forum.

The ECMWF weeklies had forecast temperatures to average above to much above normal across the region for the September 4-11 period. That forecast is verifying with the ongoing heatwave. September has increasingly become an extension of summer in parts of the Northeast. Since 2000, almost half of all years (48%) have had a monthly mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, just 20% of Septembers had mean temperatures of 70° or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around August 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.32°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -19.67 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.527 today.

On September 7 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.665 (RMM). The September 6-djusted amplitude was 2.560 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.6° (2.4° above normal).

Melting all of that arctic sea ice and permafrost has an effect. It takes a lot of heat to fully melt snow and ice…we see it up here in the spring when we’re waiting to warm up. It doesn’t efficiently warm until you thaw and dry out. Now we see that line in the arctic expanding northward during the summers. The summer cP airmasses become warmer and it’s more difficult to drive them southward. Tippy’s Hadley cell expanding northward doesn’t help either. It just results in more of a lag in cool season climo.

CON’s avg first freeze in the 51-80 normals was 9/22. In the current 91-20 normals it is 10/3.

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14 hours ago, dendrite said:

Beautiful sunny day. High of 80F. Not a drop.

was at an outdoor wedding yesterday. nice day and all, but I was sweating for 5 hours straight.

only 1/2” rain so far this month, which is right on cue as I overseeded the lawn last weekend. 

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11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This area has been like a rain forest this summer.  Everything stayed so lush.  This past week was mostly rain free until  Friday but still only a half an inch     More to come

Same here. Grass has been dark green all summer with shrooms sprouting in the shady areas. 

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