weatherwiz Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Only thing that could keep temps back Tuesday is we should develop quite a bit of fair cumulus clouds given steep lapse rates and pretty decent instability (especially for Oct. standards). Should have enough moisture present as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/22/2023 at 5:42 PM, tamarack said: Case in point: January 2023. It was the mildest of 25 Januarys here, 1.7° above the previous "winner", 2006. It also was 3rd snowiest, only 0.1" shy of 30" and 10" AN. 39 this morning, 1st sub-40 of the season. (Median date for 1st frost was last Tuesday. 50/50 chance of being our 3rd September w/o a frost.) Expand On 9/22/2023 at 5:47 PM, dryslot said: Just going by the end of today's 12z GFS run, Taking it verbatim, I think we would hold off until around the 8th of Oct as there is a cold air mass that was heading SE out of Canada in that time frame into here. Expand On 9/27/2023 at 5:00 PM, dendrite said: That's a quick end to summer on the fantasyland gfs. Expand No changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 6:21 PM, CoastalWx said: Maybe I can grow some hen of the woods out of the north side of my house. Expand I'm very happy that Tblizz is going to get to share in your misery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 8:04 PM, dryslot said: I'm very happy that Tblizz is going to get to share in your misery. Expand I blame him for crying about getting 2" of rain instead of 3". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 18z nam is wild for NYC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 7:48 PM, weatherwiz said: Only thing that could keep temps back Tuesday is we should develop quite a bit of fair cumulus clouds given steep lapse rates and pretty decent instability (especially for Oct. standards). Should have enough moisture present as well. Expand Cumulus? Steep lapse rates? We haven't had a decent TS all year and only 2 extra weak ones since June. Would be wild getting a good one in October. (Certainly possible. Northern Maine had a severe storm on 9/30/1986 that flattened 600 acres of forest less than 15 miles south of Fort Kent. Climate has warmed and we're 2.5° south of there, so why not?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 8:37 PM, wx2fish said: 18z nam is wild for NYC Expand 18z HRRR was also west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Maybe we'll send it all to Metfan. Water rescues in the Subways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 BOX doesn’t seem too interested up here . 20% chance of showers Hope they are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 8:37 PM, wx2fish said: 18z nam is wild for NYC Expand Enlighten us. 5” for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 9:37 PM, WinterWolf said: Enlighten us. 5” for NYC? Expand More like 7-9". It's confined to a relatively small area though, and looks like a classic winter norlun through with the isobars elongated towards the NW. Those suckers can generate a ton of forcing but are notoriously fickle and hard to pin down. More often than not, the axis of the heaviest precipitation ends up a bit NE of where it was modeled. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 9:40 PM, mob1 said: More like 7-9". It's confined to a relatively small area though, and looks like a classic winter norlun through with the isobars extending towards the NW. Expand thanks mob1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Let’s get Ida 2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 9:59 PM, CoastalWx said: Let’s get Ida 2.0 Expand At this point I’d have to agree with you on that. If it’s going to suck, let’s make it something to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 7:40 PM, Ginx snewx said: My weekend is Friday Sat. Sunday should hit 70 easily if it clears out. Chilly stretch ends with a warm start to Oct Expand What a furnace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 9:03 PM, CoastalWx said: Maybe we'll send it all to Metfan. Water rescues in the Subways. Expand Let’s get the damaging wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 9:59 PM, CoastalWx said: Let’s get Ida 2.0 Expand Yes, let's. My favorite flooding event ever, my street was literally a river. None of the cars in these pictures are actually moving, they're all parked. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Seems pretty often that that first week or so of October is warmish... for many years we would get inundated with swarms of those fake ladybugs around then. Not so much lately but for many years starting in the late 1990s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Fake warmth in Oct is a regular phenomenon. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 10:47 PM, dryslot said: Fake warmth in Oct is a regular phenomenon. Expand Will you need to reinstall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 10:47 PM, dryslot said: Fake warmth in Oct is a regular phenomenon. Expand It's real and it's spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Lets get the later panels of the GFS op in winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 11:16 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Will you need to reinstall? Expand Once they're out, They're out, Accept for the wall unit, Its always an innie not an outtie. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 11:18 PM, CoastalWx said: Lets get the later panels of the GFS op in winter. Expand What’s it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 11:26 PM, WinterWolf said: What’s it show? Expand Heavy heavy troughing. Big cold shot. Probably fake news, but interesting as modeled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 11:16 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Will you need to reinstall? Expand I typically don't uninstall until Columbus day, but have rarely used it after Labor Day. This year was an exception for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 11:30 PM, CoastalWx said: Heavy heavy troughing. Big cold shot. Probably fake news, but interesting as modeled. Expand Nice Columbus Day rain/wind event on that... Even a little Alberta Clipper right at the end...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Its coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 11:21 PM, dryslot said: Once they're out, They're out, Accept for the wall unit, Its always an innie not an outtie. Expand lol.. turtle pops head out of shell every month of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 11:26 PM, WinterWolf said: What’s it show? Expand Beer in mouths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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