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Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso


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I don't know if it should be unexpected, actually.

I outlined why we can't trust warmth and dry whenever there is/has been modeled, tendencies for over top high pressure, yesterday. 

As usual though ...rationality is back-burnered so that people can grouse instead LOL

which is why this is apparently a 'support group' more so than any other use.   I keep forgetting that. d'oh!

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know if it should be unexpected, actually.

I outlined why we can't trust warmth and dry whenever there is/has been modeled, tendencies for over top high pressure, yesterday. 

As usual though ...rationality is back-burnered so that people can grouse instead LOL

which is why this is apparently a 'support group' more so than any other use.   I keep forgetting that. d'oh!

Wait until winter when it becomes Lack of Snows Anonymous. 

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Anyway, ...that idea on the 06z Euro ... mm, might be an aggressive outlier anyway, but it's not impossible. 

That said, Saturday's prooobably the last hurrah of this particularly long standing, anchored +PP over Quebec.  From what I'm seeing ...the Euro is most amplified with results, but they all bring scunge skies and at least light measurable at least to CT/RI latitude on Saturday.   Seems to be a matter of how much.

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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM moving north. The thing that scares me is that synoptically, it's not really a suppressed look IMO.

Both nams are wildly different though with the area of big rains which appears to be a small geographic area-would think this has a high bust potential eitherway

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8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Both nams are wildly different though with the area of big rains which appears to be a small geographic area-would think this has a high bust potential eitherway

I think it’s still too early to tell if that’s the case? You got the GFS which shows nothing still, and now the NAM is moving towards wet…things are still in flux, and until That gets straightened out for better or worse, we won’t know much about bust potential imo. 

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22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think it’s still too early to tell if that’s the case? You got the GFS which shows nothing still, and now the NAM is moving towards wet…things are still in flux, and until That gets straightened out for better or worse, we won’t know much about bust potential imo. 

It's funny.. I think the GFS was wrong for the storm this past weekend. I wound up with 4.55" at my house.. and that fell predominantly Sunday into Monday. 

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