ineedsnow Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 12:38 PM, dryslot said: So many fake cold post, Hate to see it. Expand Had a touch of frost this morning.. some knew 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Fake 35° here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 I love how we can have frosts at 40. Some beer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 WTF the 6z euro better be wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Definitely above normal. How much, historic or just warm, who knows, but it looks protracted either way. Short version, warmth through the 15th of October would appear to be above normal confidence. The longer version, because there is vivid cross-guidance ( EPS/GEFS/GEPS ) support, for one. They all merely fade out to 380 hours, having not actually ever moved the underpinning pattern behavior (when looping) away from the -PNA; a coherent baseline in that regard is evidenced. It's impressive they all end their runs with an echo of -PNA surviving the noise/entropy of the distant range. Another less obvious but useful signal/confidence is when looping these, the individual R-wave features are repeating where (spacial regions) they amplify and decay. Pattern stability, is what all that means. It doesn't mean we can't still generate enough over top high across Quebec to wedge-ruin a warm 500 mb look along the way. But when those intervals don't happen, that 850 mb seems to surpass +12C with episodic +16ers spanning some 9 days... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 12:52 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Definitely above normal. How much, historic or just warm, who knows, but it looks protracted either way. Short version, warmth through the 15th of October would appear to be above normal confidence. The longer version, because there is vivid cross-guidance ( EPS/GEFS/GEPS ) support, for one. They all merely fade out to 380 hours, having not actually ever moved pattern behavior (when looping) away from the -PNA - a coherent baseline in that regard is evidenced. It's impressive they all end their runs with an echo of -PNA surviving the noise/entropy of the distant range. Another less obvious but useful signal/confidence is when looping these, the individual R-wave features are repeating where (spacial regions) they amplify and decay. Pattern stability, is what all that means. It doesn't mean we can't still generate enough over top high across Quebec to wedge-ruin a warm 500 mb look along the way. But when those intervals don't happen, that 850 mb seems to surpass +12C with episodic +16ers spanning some 9 days... Expand Beach weather returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Yeah I noticed the smoke too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 We rain Friday…just gotta accept it. The rain has won all summer…it will win Friday and Saturday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 1:04 PM, WinterWolf said: We rain Friday…just gotta accept it. The rain has won all summer…it will win Friday and Saturday too. Expand If the euro is right Saturday is gone. I’ll effing lose it. More games and activities rained out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 12:47 PM, CoastalWx said: I love how we can have frosts at 40. Some beer. Expand Thought it was wet.. put my wipers on this morning and nope lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 @CoastalWx 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 1:09 PM, ineedsnow said: Thought it was wet.. put my wipers on this morning and nope lol Expand Car windshields don't count 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 1:11 PM, dendrite said: Car windshields don't count Expand Some on the grass and roofs when I looked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 1:13 PM, ineedsnow said: Some on the grass and roofs when I looked Expand Frost on the beer mug? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Let's get Scoot the 8" jack. LFG 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Got down to 59° inside this morning. Need to uninstall but tweaked my back playing golf so they will remain for the next week or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 1:11 PM, ineedsnow said: @CoastalWx Expand Was your temp 36ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 1:14 PM, dendrite said: Let's get Scoot the 8" jack. LFG Expand If the GFS wins, I'm buying everyone at NCEP a beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 1:06 PM, CoastalWx said: If the euro is right Saturday is gone. I’ll effing lose it. More games and activities rained out. Expand So much for dry and sunny for the next ten days after Ophelia, as was said a couple days ago. It’s almost comical. But ya, that would suck if Saturday is shot again…we have a huge outdoor party that a friend throws every year…it’s a humdinger(he goes all out), and he cancelled it last Saturday and postponed it to this Saturday because the forecast looked nice and sunny and mild back on this past Saturday. Can’t trust 7 day forecasts I guess lmao, that say gorgeous weather the next 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 1:15 PM, mreaves said: Got down to 59° inside this morning. Need to uninstall but tweaked my back playing golf so they will remain for the next week or so. Expand Just leave it in. We may need it again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 1:18 PM, WinterWolf said: So much for dry and sunny for the next ten days after Ophelia, as was said a couple days ago. It’s almost comical. But ya, that would suck if Saturday is shot again…we have a huge outdoor party that a friend throws every year…it’s a humdinger(he fits all out), and he cancelled it last Saturday and postponed it to this Saturday because the forecast looked nice and sunny and mild back on this past Saturday. Can’t trust 7 day forecasts I guess lmao, that say gorgeous weather the next 7-10 days. Expand Nothing worse than a shit Saturday. Let it rain Sunday when you gotta get ready for the week etc. Maybe I'll just drive north and drink a beer with Tamarack as he tells stories of smoke plumes rising straight and then drifting away at the temp inversion in Frenchville Maine. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 1:16 PM, CoastalWx said: If the GFS wins, I'm buying everyone at NCEP a beer. Expand .5” here…8 inches for you lol on that 6z Euro. Now that would suck for you. But It’s an outlier…right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 1:22 PM, WinterWolf said: .5” here…8 inches for you lol on that 6z Euro. Now that would suck for you. But It’s an outlier…right? Expand Complete outlier and tossed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2023 Author Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 1:18 PM, WinterWolf said: So much for dry and sunny for the next ten days after Ophelia, as was said a couple days ago. It’s almost comical. But ya, that would suck if Saturday is shot again…we have a huge outdoor party that a friend throws every year…it’s a humdinger(he goes all out), and he cancelled it last Saturday and postponed it to this Saturday because the forecast looked nice and sunny and mild back on this past Saturday. Can’t trust 7 day forecasts I guess lmao, that say gorgeous weather the next 7-10 days. Expand Lets keep this going into winter...imagine at day 4 going from P Sunny and 45 to 30". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 The kids have done a number on Scott’s sanity in Weymouth . We pray for dry so the town has a safe Anger free weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 1:14 PM, dendrite said: Let's get Scoot the 8" jack. LFG Expand Just the Euro being the euro. I’d guess Friday is mainly dry away from south coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 1:30 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: The kids have done a number on Scott’s sanity in Weymouth . We pray for dry so the town has a safe Anger free weekend Expand Kids feel bad too. It's the weather. Ruined camping last weekend. Probably will eff over this weekend and then Columbus Day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 1:04 PM, WinterWolf said: We rain Friday…just gotta accept it. The rain has won all summer…it will win Friday and Saturday too. Expand I still have hope it gets suppressed south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 1:37 PM, CoastalWx said: Kids feel bad too. It's the weather. Ruined camping last weekend. Probably will eff over this weekend and then Columbus Day weekend. Expand It ain’t a done deal by any means…weekend could be just fine. Let’s see what 12z says? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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