Modfan2 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 The Euro the next 7 days has RI floating; almost 8”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 52 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: West of Nova Scotia? West meaning up over SNE not offshore like other models. This should be a flooder from you on East and up to Scooter . Thankfully far enough west here for lighter stuff. Don’t need to wash all my soil and seed away I did late last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: The Euro the next 7 days has RI floating; almost 8”. CMC is even wilder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Two ENE flooders next 7 days. Tomorrow and next Sunday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Yay more rain. Hope euro is wrong next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yay more rain. Hope euro is wrong next weekend. Canadian too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Too bad this isn’t winter. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yay more rain. Hope euro is wrong next weekend. That might evolve into a tropical system ... That upper air velocity anomalies are still divergent spanning much of the Basin, including that region off the SE coast. Granted ... that means it is based on guidance. But, the operation/model consensus want an over-top high pressure ( sign of the changing season ...), which puts that region initially in a long fetch easterly trade, with still ample OHC and a frontalysis axis, under which there is a light westerly flow... You have cyclonic tendencies under a divergence at high levels, over warm ocean. Not a hard calculus Without that, the GGEM ( also ) would plume a bulk slug of excessive rains. The GFS, while also on the same page with the high pressure, I feel is typically going over board with the activation of the early jet/westerlies, and thus ends up with too much confluence and that creates a suppression error - I mean I'm suspicious of that... Not totally certain it's doing that on these overnight runs but looks a bit like that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Too bad this isn’t winter. I was noticing the NAM's recent runs really don't have much gradient with this thing. The winds at Logan on the FOUS grid are flopping around at 10 kts. Also, the LI's are around -1 at the regional scope. At least for the NAM's sake, this appears to be more a coincidence/artifact than it is a very good analog for a coastal/winter profile. Just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Agree with Tip—next weekend has homebrew/hybrid potential. Pretty good cross guidance signal for some kind of development off the SE coast. Coastal season starting early? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Agree with Tip—next weekend has homebrew/hybrid potential. Pretty good cross guidance signal for some kind of development off the SE coast. Coastal season starting early? Did you mean 'homegrown season' starting early? ... possibly. op ed: I've personally noted in autumns spanning the last 12 to 15 years ( not a hard experiment) a tendency for early arousal of the seasonal jet - by this I mean, cold season jet structures. That tendency - I suspect - is currently in play, yet again. The slow moving large anticyclone through Ontario and New England late in the week is a result of jet activation setting up pulsed synoptic confluence - which doesn't happen without the physical exertion of a stronger core of westerlies running by along or about the 50th. All that is "indirectly" relevant to the entire SW Basin climatology. You end up with tendencies of easterly llv wind bursts into Gulf/Floridian waters every time there is a +pp anomaly over NYC. That's sort of the relay in how the hemisphere 'activates home season early'. So being early, the water is still blazing away between Cape Hatteras and Miami. Early season high pressure migrates by to the N, there is your easterly acceleration below the M/A. There may even be a westerly compensating synoptic flow south of a decaying front extending E of Georgia, whilst there's that ongoing weird hemispheric couplet in the divergence of the upper levels between the Date Line and the Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Agree with Tip—next weekend has homebrew/hybrid potential. Pretty good cross guidance signal for some kind of development off the SE coast. Coastal season starting early? Let’s please just track it inland and west of SNE. Up the HRV is fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Perfect day for firewood picking. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s please just track it inland and west of SNE. Up the HRV is fine Probably gets cut off somewhere to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Probably gets cut off somewhere to our south Would that mean humid onshore flow and dews? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I was noticing the NAM's recent runs really don't have much gradient with this thing. The winds at Logan on the FOUS grid are flopping around at 10 kts. Also, the LI's are around -1 at the regional scope. At least for the NAM's sake, this appears to be more a coincidence/artifact than it is a very good analog for a coastal/winter profile. Just an observation. Yeah I wasn’t reading into it that much. I just liked the fronto look up here while Methuen has a meltdown. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Cmc is really wet next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Hmmm, Some home brew maybe….? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: Hmmm, Some home brew maybe….? Maybe but lots of home grown though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 2 hours ago, kdxken said: Perfect day for firewood picking. Lot of nice-looking seasoned wood there Ken, Ill contact you in a week or two, I need some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 59 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Maybe but lots of home grown though. a busy weekend of trimming and drying for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Euro soakah tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro soakah tomorrow NAM looks nothing like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: NAM looks nothing like that Yeah keeps the heaviest mostly offshore. Still thinking tomorrow is pretty wet. At least an inch here I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 72.7F for the high so far today. AWT Great day for a paddle 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: NAM looks nothing like that Well that's something we will likely say a thousand times over the next 6 months... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 18z HRRR is 1 to 3 for most 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: NAM looks nothing like that it does at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: it does at 18z And even the NAM falls into line…a nice big drink tomorrow it looks like. Well we need it…….….said nobody ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: And even the NAM falls into line…a nice big drink tomorrow it looks like. Well we need it…….….said nobody ever. 1 to 3 plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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