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September Discobs 2023


George BM
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@MN Transplant morning AFD from LWX mentioned dewpoint mixing I believe in the short term discussion part

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Well above average temperatures continue into this morning.
Normal morning lows should be in the upper 50s to low 60s this
time of year, depending on your exact location, and many areas
are still around 70!

More of the same is expected today as we saw on Sunday. High
pressure to the south and a strong upper ridge will set the
stage for a very hot air mass over the region. Winds out of the
WNW could again result in significant warming in downslope flow,
especially for areas up next to the ridges. Could see many spots
make a run at 100 today, but most will see mid-upper 90s. In
fact, some spots may even reach record highs today (see climate
section below for more details). Humidity will again be
manageable, through it will still feel plenty hot. Dew points
in the 60s should keep us out of and advisory criteria, but it
will certainly be close, and anyone outdoors today should still
remember to keep hydrated and take plenty of breaks in the
shade/air conditioning.

Going into tonight, temperatures may even be a touch warmer
overnight than we saw this morning. Some spots could see record
warm overnight lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The hottest days of the week look to be on Tuesday and
Wednesday. The pattern remains similar, with the ridge aloft
strengthening ever so slightly. Temperatures at 850mb warm a
degree or so each day Tuesday and Wednesday when compared to
Monday, with values anywhere between 20-24 deg C. This, paired
with downsloping winds, should yield afternoon high temperatures
in the upper 90s to low 100s. Maintaining thoughts on humidity,
as the downsloping winds will crash the dew points (perhaps even
more than currently forecast). Think we remain below advisory
criteria once again on Tuesday, but Wednesday could come very
close. Either way, that doesn`t take away the fact that it will
be extremely hot during this time period, and you should be
taking proper precautions to avoid heat-related illness.

Overnight lows remain very warm both nights, with record warmth
during the overnight possible once again.
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