Weather Will Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 WB 0Z EURO finally caved. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EURO finally caved. Yep. It finally caught on. Only took inside of 2 days. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Oh NAM… I know it’s not good with tropical systems… but wow…963mb cyclone 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 I’m back in 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Did the QPF forecast tonight. Sharpened the western edge and did bring totals down on the NW side and bumped them up on the coastal plain. Have to see how the Euro move affects blended guidance later on, but I still count amounts fairly reasonable given the setup. Tonight was also my last night shift and I’m off till Tuesday. I’ll try to chime in on thoughts when I can 16 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 If this storm does go like 0z models show it’s a really bad performance by the euro. GFS led the way. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 So we all excited for our rainy weekend? Looks like it's happening! Plenty of football to watch. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Much better agreement… on a much needed soaker 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 30 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Did the QPF forecast tonight. Sharpened the western edge and did bring totals down on the NW side and bumped them up on the coastal plain. Have to see how the Euro move affects blended guidance later on, but I still count amounts fairly reasonable given the setup. Tonight was also my last night shift and I’m off till Tuesday. I’ll try to chime in on thoughts when I can What's your thoughts on when it gets out of here on Sunday? Suppose to take the kids to Hershey park Sunday afternoon. Some models have it out of here by the afternoon but some have it linger around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 What a complete cave by the Euro. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 44 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Did the QPF forecast tonight. Sharpened the western edge and did bring totals down on the NW side and bumped them up on the coastal plain. Have to see how the Euro move affects blended guidance later on, but I still count amounts fairly reasonable given the setup. Tonight was also my last night shift and I’m off till Tuesday. I’ll try to chime in on thoughts when I can The weather doesn’t take breaks. Who do you think you are? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 21 minutes ago, nj2va said: What a complete cave by the Euro. It has…struggled… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Is there really any reason to look at the Euro anymore? Might as well just call it the CRAS 2.0. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 It will be right in winter when it shows no snow 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Is there any objection to me starting a thread for this event? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Is there any objection to me starting a thread for this event? Naw go for it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 As I predicted yesterday evening, the 00z ECM caved and moved west. Cape pointed out yesterday evening that Mt. Holly was using the NBM because of inconsistencies with the globals. The NBM is a blend of more than 40 models that averages out an outlier like yesterdays ECM. I produce an abbreviated NBM for my newsletter quite often by blending 4 - 7 models. My 4 model blend at 6pm yesterday was .70" for my location. The NWS NBM was at .75". Remember, the ECM was 0. This morning, my 4 model blend is 1.06. The NWS NBM is .76" for me and 1.85" for D.C.. Some models say that a sharp cutoff can occur on the western side. (the Valley) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: So we all excited for our rainy weekend? Looks like it's happening! Plenty of football to watch. And Orioles! 1 hour ago, nj2va said: What a complete cave by the Euro. I’ll be at deep creek this weekend. Looks a bit drier. Enough for some outside activities. 22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Is there any objection to me starting a thread for this event? Do it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 What a complete cave by the Euro. Good to remember for winter...Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 35 minutes ago, H2O said: It will be right in winter when it shows no snow or alternatively, it WILL predict snow, we willl get sucked in (again) and trust it, but it will be... wrong again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 1 hour ago, nj2va said: What a complete cave by the Euro. 6z euro even farther west! Almost GGEM like now. 1”+ to deep creek. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 23 minutes ago, batmanbrad said: or alternatively, it WILL predict snow, we willl get sucked in (again) and trust it, but it will be... wrong again. It did last year, when Euro predicted a MA snowstorm while the rest of the models showed a cutter. Then the euro caved inside 5-6 days. We believed the euro because it was a good model. Now we know better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Seems that NCEP has been putting real yeoman's work into the GFS recently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 6z euro even farther west! Almost GGEM like now. 1”+ to deep creek. Its primary error seems to have been associated with the timing/orientation of that northern shortwave moving southward under the upper ridge in Canada. Previous runs had it sharper/further west and it was acting as a kicker. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 On 9/19/2023 at 2:58 PM, mattie g said: We've all learned that the Euro is just another average model. Haven't we? Seems we have. 2 hours ago, H2O said: If this storm does go like 0z models show it’s a really bad performance by the euro. GFS led the way. 1 hour ago, nj2va said: What a complete cave by the Euro. 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: It has…struggled… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: Seems we have. I've been on the Euro is not infallible train for years lol. Not what it used to be. Thread done 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 32 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I've been on the Euro is not infallible train for years lol. Not what it used to be. Thread done I think many of us really came to accept this last winter. Pretty striking how consistent it used to be with not making big shifts from run to run compared to how flip-floppy it was last winter...nevermind the "caving" to the other models (particularly the GFS). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: It did last year, when Euro predicted a MA snowstorm while the rest of the models showed a cutter. Then the euro caved inside 5-6 days. We believed the euro because it was a good model. Now we know better. Remember a couple winters ago when Topper Shutt did that "we're breaking up" video on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 2 hours ago, BlizzardNole said: Remember a couple winters ago when Topper Shutt did that "we're breaking up" video on the Euro? I was out of the country at the time, but wow did he really say that? To bash the euro on air is making a statement… and a correct one at that, it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 9 hours ago, Chris78 said: What's your thoughts on when it gets out of here on Sunday? Suppose to take the kids to Hershey park Sunday afternoon. Some models have it out of here by the afternoon but some have it linger around. Hey Chris! Sorry, was sleeping. First good sleep I have had since starting nights and it happens when I come off of them (imagine that). There’s deviations in forward speed and propagation once it reaches our latitude so it’s still something we’ll have to parse through over the next 24 hrs. Having said that, it does look like general improvements are favored throughout Sunday with NW to SE drying pattern favored. I would say the first part of Sunday could be gloomy but incremental improvements would more likely occur over the course of the afternoon. That’s from what I saw last night in the series of runs and favored ensemble guidance. I’m gonna be busy throughout the weekend, so I’ll try to poke in and provide some thoughts, but NWS is well into the handling stage at this point and should be a great source of information. Have fun at Hershey! My wife and I might head up there during Christmas time to take in the lights and festivities. Been a long time coming for that! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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