SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 38 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Big differences between GFS and EURO at 6Z. (WB) In winter the euro no snow solution would be correct 99 times out of 100. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 16 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: In winter the euro no snow solution would be correct 99 times out of 100. Yup then when it’s the only one showing snow. 99 out of 100 it’s wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 12k NAM throwing 1.5"-3.00" area-wide through 00z Sunday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 12z ICON looks Euro-ish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 12z GFS at 006 looks similar to the same time on the 06z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 These models are fire. I can’t wait to use them during winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 12z canadian trended east, but still gives us 2” area wide. NAM is now the furthest west and wettest solution, EURO driest with nothing W of bay. If this was winter, oh boy 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 12z canadian trended east, but still gives us 2” area wide. NAM is now the furthest west and wettest solution, EURO driest with nothing W of bay. If this was winter, oh boy You'd expect partly cloudy and 45. Preview of winter 2023 where everything is too far east? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: You'd expect partly cloudy and 45. Preview of winter 2023 where everything is too far east? Yeah, or realistically, this would be a cold rainstorm because the low is tracking due north with the high 500+ miles to the east shredding the mid levels with maritime air. Like 97-98 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 13 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, or realistically, this would be a cold rainstorm because the low is tracking due north with the high 500+ miles to the east shredding the mid levels with maritime air. Like 97-98 the gfs precip ensemble mean took a significant shift east lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 46 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, or realistically, this would be a cold rainstorm because the low is tracking due north with the high 500+ miles to the east shredding the mid levels with maritime air. Like 97-98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Or equating September wavelengths or upper air features to those in the depths of winter is a bit simplistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 16 minutes ago, mattie g said: Or equating September wavelengths or upper air features to those in the depths of winter is a bit simplistic. Atmospheric memory! And all that jazz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Euro keeps precipitation southeast of the metros. Glad this isn’t winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Euro keeps precipitation southeast of the metros. Glad this isn’t winter.Yikes with icon dry ans gfs ensembles much drier....this sounds like January in September for the dc area lolSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro keeps precipitation southeast of the metros. Glad this isn’t winter. Don’t worry it will be soon. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Yeah, it's because of -PNA conditions. We don't want -PNA in the Winter. It's weird that it would correlate with a SE trough in the beginning anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 What’s funny is that the same pattern looks to repeat late next week with a low of the SE coast. All guidance shows something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 The WPC is trashing the 06 and 12 ECMWF with this 1:37 3 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Just now, stormy said: The WPC is trashing the 06 and 12 ECMWF with this 1:37 3 day Make that the 00 and 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Updated forecast for here now has amounts for Friday-Saturday. 1-3". Mt Holly following NBM given inconsistencies between the global models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 WB 18Z 12K NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Nam still 1.5-2” Region wide, icon back significantly west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Not a fan of wind gusts 40-50 out of the E or NE with rain. It ALWAYS messes with power up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 The model song Turn it outTo the eastTake it back now y'allOne inch this timeOne inch this timeReverseReverseShift to the west Shift to the east Reverse, reverseReverse, reverseCha cha now y'allCha cha againCha cha now y'allCha cha again Turn it outTo the westTake it back now y'allTwo inches, two inchesTwo inches, two inchesEast trend let's shift West trend let's shift Charlie brownDry it out nowShift to the east Shift to the west Take it back now y'allCha cha now y'all 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Updated forecast for here now has amounts for Friday-Saturday. 1-3". Mt Holly following NBM given inconsistencies between the global models. The NBM is very close to the GFS and GEM. The problem is with the Euro which has been all over the world. I predict that it will come back west with the 00z run. During recent years the ECMWF has often been known as the King. Those days are over, unless. Will the Euro pull a monstrous coup with the off the coast drought enhancer??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 I know in the winter the euro would never take us to dry to a big snowstorm at 72 hours out lol 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Gfs is drier out west. Sub tropical vibes.interesting run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Lol UKIE... what a huge shift west 00z CMC and UKIE crush i95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 looks like the 00z Euro came a fair amount west (and sped up somewhat as well), give most of our area at least 2" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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