CAPE Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: It’s consistently been the wettest for this weekend. Would be a serious drought buster with probably some local flooding. Yeah it has. It shifted the axis of heaviest rain east this run, but still soaks places well inland too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: It’s consistently been the wettest for this weekend. Would be a serious drought buster with probably some local flooding. Last two runs, it's wanted to run a stripe of seriously heavy precip from south to north somewhere through our area. If that were to happen, whoever is on the receiving end will get rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 12z euro back out. Lower eastern shore only for the main show. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z euro back out. Lower eastern shore only for the main show. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Orioles playoffs, and hell, regular season too, are preparing me well for a constant state of stress over things I can’t control. I’ll be starting December in mid-season form! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Orioles playoffs, and hell, regular season too, are preparing me well for a constant state of stress over things I can’t control. I’ll be starting December in mid-season form! Don't forget the Ravens season, and the injuries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z euro back out. Lower eastern shore only for the main show. We've all learned that the Euro is just another average model. Haven't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: 12z euro back out. Lower eastern shore only for the main show. 12z eps is west however. As far west as any eps run that I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: 12z euro back out. Lower eastern shore only for the main show. how are the ensembles lol....i dont want my kids sports to get cancelled on saturday because that means i have to be at home working on chores smh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Just now, Ji said: how are the ensembles lol....i dont want my kids sports to get cancelled on saturday because that means i have to be at home working on chores smh wow crazy...you just answered the question as soon as posted it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 12z eps is west however. As far west as any eps run that I see. Yeah its better than the 0z run. Implies a decent soaker but not some prolific subtropical deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Thoughts from Mount Holly based on the 12z suite- Low pressure lifts towards the Mid-Atlantic late Friday night and into Saturday morning. A piece of energy will spin off the main low and pass either right over the East Coast or just offshore. There are differences among the 12Z suite of models, with the GFS being fastest and closest to the coast. GFS has the primary low over the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday morning, while the ECMWF has the primary low still off the Southeast Coast. The CMC is somewhat in between. A slug of heavy rain moves into the local region during this time, with the heaviest rain east of I-95. The 12Z NBM has come in with higher PoPs over Delmarva and southern New Jersey, but will bump up to have likely PoPs along, south and east of the I-95 corridor, and chance to the north and west. Primary low will then track along the coast Saturday night through Sunday, but there are timing and placement inconsistencies among the models. Will generally carry chance PoPs for Sunday and into Sunday night. Depending on the track of the low, as much as 3 to 5 inches of rain could fall along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts this weekend, with an inch or so possible in the southern Poconos should the 12Z/19 GFS verify. This will be much lower if the 12Z/19 ECMWF verifies. If the 12Z/19 CMC verifies, then heavier rain is possible over more of the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah its better than the 0z run. Implies a decent soaker but not some prolific subtropical deal. Tighter gradient to the west. Wetter for I95 and points east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 WB 12Z EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 So anywhere from 0-3 inches of rain. Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 If this was winter what is our confidence level for a big storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 WB 18Z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: If this was winter what is our confidence level for a big storm? If the Euro is out, well, you know don't ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 42 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS Please, please be right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 18z euro way west 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 3 hours ago, Ji said: If this was winter what is our confidence level for a big storm? 33F and rain for sure. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 18z euro way west Not just that, but also further north with the SLP position at hr 84 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 4 hours ago, CAPE said: If the Euro is out, well, you know don't ya? The Euro is broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 WB 0Z Can, EURO, GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 WB 0Z Can, EURO, GFSLol….glad this isn’t winter. Gnashing of teeth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 GFS looks interesting. Looks like another home brew system next week than a hurricane making landfall on the gulf coast at the end of the run. Maybe we're past the boring drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 WB 6Z NAM....at least it is interesting again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 WB 6Z GFS.... hopefully it holds course today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 7 hours ago, MDstorm said: The Euro is broken. It certainly isn't what it used to be, at least on the east coast of the US. But, among those 3 models just posted the one that looks broken to me is the GEM. Widespread 4 - 5 inch amounts. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Big differences between GFS and EURO at 6Z. (WB) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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