H2O Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 Hope this coming weekend storm brings rain. cause I didn't get any decent precip this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 Had an extra shower last night about 1:30 am. Total for that event was 0.38 in my backyard. Bit of a let down. Next weekend is a big question mark for what will happen. If I were betting, I woukd bet on dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 1.01" total for the overnight/early morning event. 4.9" for the month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 3 hours ago, H2O said: Hope this coming weekend storm brings rain. cause I didn't get any decent precip this weekend. Yeah, same here; just 0.15" this go around . After finally dousing away the drought last Weekend it's right back to the dry dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 Slight differences between WB 12Z EURO and the GFS and Can. for the potential storm this weekend. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 We crush fall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 GFS would make everybody happy. EURO would however follow what has been the case most of the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 This weekend for us in the central valley will likely be the ultimate suckerpunch as we watch tropical rains move up I95.... Jan 1.53 Feb 3.09 Mar 1.39 Apr 3.63 May 1.48 Jun 5.10 Jul 2.73 Aug 0.56 Sep 1.25 Ytd. 20.76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Note to self. Global models stink outside a few days.... WB GFS 6Z today v. yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 And there go the rain chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 13 minutes ago, H2O said: And there go the rain chances I would not give up yet, but tracking lows are really a crapshoot outside a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 The euro jumped onboard at 0z actually lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 That's a bummer. That could've been the drought killer, at least for the northern SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 The 0z op run looked fine, and 6z GEFS is actually slightly better than 0z GEFS wrt rainfall across the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Yeah, Ava with aleets this am for a wet soggy weekend ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 WB 6Z GEFS Individual members, definitely 2 camps here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 We just can't know yet. Mount Holly AFD- Beyond Friday, the main question becomes whether the ridging to our north will "relax" enough for the coastal low to our south to move northward bringing rain to our area over the weekend. If this does happen, rainfall amounts could be significant due to both the slow movement of the system and its potential of drawing in tropical moisture with PWATs around 2+ inches. Forecast models are still struggling though with both variability from one model update cycle to the next and between the different models. The 0z deterministic runs of the GFS and the GEM Global continue to allow the low to track far enough northward to bring the area significant rainfall and strong E/NE winds beginning Saturday lasting into Sunday while the 12z ECMWF was more surpressed keeping the low and its heaviest rainfall farther south. The 0Z ECMWF has trended farther north however. We did increase POPs above NBM (National Blend of Models) with this update as we`re thinking it`s likely that the system will bring rainfall at least as far north as the I-95 corridor by late Saturday into Saturday night. There is uncertainty though regarding time of arrival and of course amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS Individual members, definitely 2 camps here. Some real Heartbreakers in that mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 17 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Some real Heartbreakers in that mix. Warm up for winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: The euro jumped onboard at 0z actually lol And the 0z GEM went all the way TF in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 43 minutes ago, mattie g said: And the 0z GEM went all the way TF in. 6z ICON looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z ICON looked good. It's looking real, but definitely a shot that this thing gets blocked to all hell and leaves us relatively dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: 6z ICON looked good. 12z is looking OK, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 WB 12Z ICON, GFS (much improved over 6Z if you want rain!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 GFS looking similar to 0z, if even a little west with the heavier rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: 6z ICON looked good. For who? Areas already that have been getting rain the last month. Drought areas west of 66 look to be left out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 7 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: For who? Areas already that have been getting rain the last month. Drought areas west of 66 look to be left out again. Sorry friend. All things are relative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 12z CMC with region wide 2"+. Heaviest right up/along the bay. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z CMC with region wide 2"+. Heaviest right up/along the bay. It’s consistently been the wettest for this weekend. Would be a serious drought buster with probably some local flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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