Rtd208 Posted November 15, 2023 Author Share Posted November 15, 2023 Overnight low of 28 here. Current temp 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 It made it down to the mid-20's in many of the valley locations here in the county. Here in East Nantmeal we could do no better than 30.2 degrees for the low. Temps will remain slightly below normal today before rising to well above normal by tomorrow and Friday with highs in the low 60's. Colder weather will set in during the weekend and it appears the remainder of November and into December will feature below normal temperatures. We do have some rain chances by Friday night but amounts look very light. Records for today: 78 (1993) / Low 16 (1905) / Rain 2.18" (1914) / Snow 9.5" (1906). That snowstorm in 1906 was the largest November storm in Chester County history. Some other area totals with that storm included Hamburg in Berks County with 6.1" and West Chester recorded 5.8" of early season snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 11 hours ago, RedSky said: That would be 7 of 11 months above normal using the newer higher normal years set so nothing cool about it Exactly! the first 4 months were well above our new higher average temps with the current warming with 4 of the last 7 now going below those new normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 I can't believe it but I was almost stung by a yellowjacket what is going on 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 6 hours ago, RedSky said: I can't believe it but I was almost stung by a yellowjacket what is going on 60's tomorrow and Friday, take cover. 47F @ 8:05pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 First snow happened on 11/15 a year ago, meant little for the months to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 Channel 6 did their Winter outlook last night. To summarize, they are calling for a backloaded winter which I believe many are already. 18"-24" for the Metro area. PAC will still have a hold through December then break in January. She's been spot on last three years so we shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 24 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Channel 6 did their Winter outlook last night. To summarize, they are calling for a backloaded winter which I believe many are already. 18"-24" for the Metro area. PAC will still have a hold through December then break in January. She's been spot on last three years so we shall see... She was pretty far from spot on last year as most shared a bad forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 24 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Channel 6 did their Winter outlook last night. To summarize, they are calling for a backloaded winter which I believe many are already. 18"-24" for the Metro area. PAC will still have a hold through December then break in January. She's been spot on last three years so we shall see... She had 14"-20" last year for Philly. This didn't pan out but I doubt anyone predicted last season correct. 34F 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 Lower elevation spots this morning again fell below freezing while here in East Nantmeal on the ridges we could drop no lower than 36.5 degrees. We should see temperatures today run almost 10 degrees above normal today and tomorrow before a sharp turn back to colder than normal to last likely through the remainder of November. Rain chances but not much rain increase Friday evening with the front...models snow up to 0.10" across western portions of the county but less as we head east bound. Looking ahead we finally have a shot at some beneficial rains by next Tuesday...fingers crossed as we need some rain. Records for today: High 73 (1990) / Low 7 above zero (1908) this was the earliest single digit low temperature in Chester County history. Rain 2.08" (1928) / Snow 1.3" just 5 years ago back in (2018). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 Ch6 just regurgitates whatever AccuWx tells them to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 FOX29 going with 25"-30" for Philly... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 Well it is getting closer to that time of year for a snow history repost. So what are the largest snowstorms in Chester County history? See the top 25 below. Of interest...8 of the top 25 storms have fallen since the turn of the century in 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 52 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: FOX29 going with 25"-30" for Philly... This isnt their official winter outlook. They said they will be all given outlook in coming days Channel 6. Gave theirs last night going 18-24 in Philly 30-36 in lehigh valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 1 hour ago, ChescoWx said: She was pretty far from spot on last year as most shared a bad forecast. Maybe it was my forecast that was right (for the most part) then. Even got a weenie tag too! Mikeymac5306 replied to ChescoWx's topic in Philadelphia Region Meh. I 'm still going with a repeat of last year. We'll be lucky to get one SECS storm. Apps runners will give the area a Couple of nickel and dime messes in January/February and that's about it. November 24, 2022 42 replies 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 I was never really enthusiastic for last winter, I thought we had a decent chance at a frontloaded winter but when we got skunked in that decent pattern in December last year, I kind of knew we were fooked. At the time, I didn't think complete shut out, but I did think it would definitely be a below average winter... I feel the complete opposite this year. You have to like where we are at heading into December... I'm thinking at minimum we get our average snowfall with a higher chance than normal of above normal. I think the only way we finish below normal is if the Nino goes ballistic which is looking unlikely right now. But even if it does, 2016 showed us you only need 1 storm to go just right to have an above normal winter even in a super nino. I don't think we see a super nino though, I think it tops out at strong and in this case that helps us overcome the crappy Nina base state in the pacific we've had the last 3 years. 09-10 is not a terrible analog tbh, not saying we see those totals but hell even if we only received half of those events in 2009-2010 it would have still been a solid above normal winter. If I had to take a guess right now, I would go with 95 area finishes 25-35", N and W gets 35-45". Things look to be heading in a good direction as we head into December and I think many of us are on the board before Dec. 25. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 Weather World winter outlook. Textbook strong El Nino winter with a mild December till sometime in January then closer to average but still above average. Couple nor'easters bring most of the snow and above average chance of one big storm. Expect total days with snow cover to be below average with this forecast. Won't have to wait long to see if this forecast is right for December as of now guidance is for above normal first half of December after the late November chill exits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 In other news a shorts on day with the temperature reaching 68F. Lots of yellowjackets and unfortunately saw the neighbors cat hanging out on the deck get stung and take off like a cannon shot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 If we get this look throughout the winter we will do pretty good I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/13/2023 at 4:27 PM, Birds~69 said: Do you know if Glenn chimes in on KYW/Podcast? (or anywhere?) I'm out of the loop on standard radio and podcast. 47F/DP 33F @ 4:25pm I haven't heard him anywhere. I don't actually have a twitter/X account but doing a quick search, it looks like he is active on that - He's also maintaining a website - https://thehurricaneschwartz.com/ Inky says he is now doing consulting at an environmental engineering companny - AKRF. Obs includes an eventual high Monday of 50 and the Tuesday-Wednesday split was 54/34 & 54/31. With the air mass change, it took winds going completely calm overnight for my low this morning of 35, where I made it up to 65 for a high today. It's currently 49 with dp 41. And as a note - still haven't put the heat on although I did pull out the humidifiers and get them going to keep it at a 35% - 40% range in here! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Our last mild day with above normal temps will be today before the turn to below normal temps through much of the rest of November and in to the month of December. Partly sunny today with some light showers possible late tonight. The cold front crosses toward daybreak tomorrow and temperatures tomorrow will hold steady or slowly fall through the 40's. Some higher locales will struggle to escape the 40's all of the next week. We finally have a likely rain event starting on Tuesday afternoon. We could see near 1.5" of rain across much of Chester County. Even colder by Thanksgiving day with some higher elevation spots struggling to reach the mid-30's. Records for today: High 76 (1896) / Low 9 (1933) / Rain 3.40" (1935) / Snow 1.0" (1980) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 12 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I haven't heard him anywhere. I don't actually have a twitter/X account but doing a quick search, it looks like he is active on that - He's also maintaining a website - https://thehurricaneschwartz.com/ Inky says he is now doing consulting at an environmental engineering companny - AKRF. Obs includes an eventual high Monday of 50 and the Tuesday-Wednesday split was 54/34 & 54/31. With the air mass change, it took winds going completely calm overnight for my low this morning of 35, where I made it up to 65 for a high today. It's currently 49 with dp 41. And as a note - still haven't put the heat on although I did pull out the humidifiers and get them going to keep it at a 35% - 40% range in here! I am following him. He continues to do excellent work talking about his great passion of climate change and it's impact!! I think he may do well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Gorgeous spring morning out there for my Jebwalk, 55F. Yellow jackets should be extra feisty today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Ensemble chaos when it comes to the NAO as we head towards the end of the month...some members go solidly negative while others stay solidly positive... We can still score in a positive regime if other factors are in place but if the NAO goes strongly negative, I think that's a good sign for the impending winter... AO looks to on track to tank(one of the most important factors for December snow if I'm remembering @donsutherland1's statistics correctly from years past) and the PNA looks to stay slightly positive. EPO based on modeling looks to be negative as well which should provide cold either nearby or over us... indices overall though looking good entering December especially if the NAO cooperates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 3 hours ago, The Iceman said: Ensemble chaos when it comes to the NAO as we head towards the end of the month...some members go solidly negative while others stay solidly positive... We can still score in a positive regime if other factors are in place but if the NAO goes strongly negative, I think that's a good sign for the impending winter... AO looks to on track to tank(one of the most important factors for December snow if I'm remembering @donsutherland1's statistics correctly from years past) and the PNA looks to stay slightly positive. EPO based on modeling looks to be negative as well which should provide cold either nearby or over us... indices overall though looking good entering December especially if the NAO cooperates... Typically, that would indicate an enhanced prospect for snow, but there are exceptions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 11 hours ago, JTA66 said: Gorgeous spring morning out there for my Jebwalk, 55F. Yellow jackets should be extra feisty today. They were. Also had a honeybee in my car. November stings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 47 minutes ago, RedSky said: They were. Also had a honeybee in my car. November stings. Enjoying the late start on heating bill season personally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Some light rain w/the cooler air moving in. Breezy low/mid 50s tomorrow which hopefully blow some more leaves off the trees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 12 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Enjoying the late start on heating bill season personally. Last year was a much later start....as this year we are running almost 6 degrees colder through the 1st 17 days of November compared to 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 We picked up 0.08" of rain overnight for a total of 0.10". The 0.08" that fell so far today is the most rain in a day since the 0.17" on October 29th. Temps have slowly been falling this morning with now mid-40's across the area since a midnight high temperature in the mid to upper 50's. We should not see below normal temperatures through the remainder of November and into the first week of December. The NWS has us getting back to the low 50's for much of the area...I suspect most of the county will actually struggle to make it out of the 40's today. Tomorrow looks to be our "mildest" day of the week with some spots touching 50 degrees. We should finally see some significant rain by Tuesday afternoon ending by Wednesday morning. Some spots could see almost 1" of needed rain. The Thanksgiving holiday weekend looks chilly and dry with days in the low 40's and nights in the 20's. Records for today: High 77 (1896) / Low 12 (1924) / Rain 1.21" (1929) / Snow 1.0" (1955) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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