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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread


Rtd208
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2 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

The first region-wide snowfall will happen sometime between December 1st and 6th. Why? I’ll be in London that week and it would be my luck to miss the first snow of the season.

That's like the 'ole PD storms.  Usually "something" tends to happen around those times. :lol:

I ended up hitting 63 for a high yesterday and bottomed out at 46 this morning.  The dry air resulted in lots of virga earlier this morning but some precip managed to break through as the dp ticked up out of the upper 30s and into the low-mid 40s.  Have so far picked up 0.03" today.

Currently overcast and 46 with dp 43.  So far my high for the day was a 53 at midnight.

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We did pick up our first measurable rain since October 30th yesterday....a whopping 0.03". That looks to be the last chance of rain till at least Friday. A chilly below normal temperature week lies ahead with temps falling below freezing the next couple of nights. Milder weather by Friday when we might reach the 60 degree mark!
Records for today: High 73 (1949) / Low 19 (1957) / Rain 2.38" (1995) / Snow 4.7" (1987)
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Many spots across the County reached near or just below freezing this AM (32.0) here in East Nantmeal. Today will continue a stretch of below normal temperature days that will take us through most of the upcoming work week. We should see widespread freezing temps tonight with some spots reaching the mid 20's. We should see a slow warming trend with temps going back above average by next weekend...we may even see some much needed rain by next weekend.
Records for today: High 76 (1912) / Low 15 (1926) / Rain 1.40" (1970) / Snow 2.8" (1968)
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A frosty start to the day here in the County with temps in many of the lower valley spots in the low 20's. Here in East Nantmeal we are down to 25.4 this is our coldest temperature since the 24.2 on March 20th. So far here in November we are running almost a degree below normal in average temperatures. We should see below normal temps continuing through mid-week but with warmer temps both Thursday and Friday before another turn to chillier weather which should last through much of the remainder of November. Our best chance of rain in a while appears to be on Friday night...fingers crossed!
Records for today: High 78 (1902) / Low 17 (1920) / Rain 2.33" (1904) / Snow 1.5" (2014)
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The Sat./Sun high/low split was 55/38 & 46/33.  But this morning's low took the cake at 29, which was my coldest low since March 12.  Figured it would drop as it was relatively clear last evening, although the winds didn't go completely calm.

I did hear one of the weekend NBC 10 mets who reports on KYW, mention something about the persistence of the yellowjackets.  Hopefully this will do in most of the leftovers (although I expect there are still others out there that will wake up and emerge once it warms up).

It's currently sunny and 36 with dp 28.

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3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

The Sat./Sun high/low split was 55/38 & 46/33.  But this morning's low took the cake at 29, which was my coldest low since March 12.  Figured it would drop as it was relatively clear last evening, although the winds didn't go completely calm.

I did hear one of the weekend NBC 10 mets who reports on KYW, mention something about the persistence of the yellowjackets.  Hopefully this will do in most of the leftovers (although I expect there are still others out there that will wake up and emerge once it warms up).

It's currently sunny and 36 with dp 28.

On the lookout for them today this was the worst year ever and anywhere I went there was no escape

 

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2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

On the lookout for them today this was the worst year ever and anywhere I went there was no escape

 

One of the garden shows I listen to on Sundays mentioned them too but also noted how they can get into homes (attics) and nest in there to escape the cold, so that can become a source. :axe:

It's currently sunny with a blue sky, and has warmed up to 48 here with dp 32.

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3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

One of the garden shows I listen to on Sundays mentioned them too but also noted how they can get into homes (attics) and nest in there to escape the cold, so that can become a source. :axe:

It's currently sunny with a blue sky, and has warmed up to 48 here with dp 32.

I hear so many people talking about them nesting under their siding it's ridiculous, I think they are getting smarter and taking over.

 

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23 minutes ago, RedSky said:

To all the non superstitious believers out there I present this - Bought a rain gauge three weeks ago and here I am at .20" three weeks later...

 

I've only had 0.06" for this month and a total of 0.43 since Oct. 21.  Had  a bunch of non-measurable wet the walk days but it has definitely been dry.

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6 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

The Sat./Sun high/low split was 55/38 & 46/33.  But this morning's low took the cake at 29, which was my coldest low since March 12.  Figured it would drop as it was relatively clear last evening, although the winds didn't go completely calm.

I did hear one of the weekend NBC 10 mets who reports on KYW, mention something about the persistence of the yellowjackets.  Hopefully this will do in most of the leftovers (although I expect there are still others out there that will wake up and emerge once it warms up).

It's currently sunny and 36 with dp 28.

Do you know if Glenn chimes in on KYW/Podcast? (or anywhere?) I'm out of the loop on standard radio and podcast.

47F/DP 33F @ 4:25pm

 

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On 11/11/2023 at 10:22 AM, Albedoman said:

for the ultimate snow weenie in all of us. This was pushed out in the EC models for snow amounts at Christmas. Give me a break. Talk about a dream run. This BS run beats all of the EC runs for the weenies. One hell of a Christmas wish. Having fun LMAO

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well I posted this on saturday- guess what Channel 69 picks it up this evening and runs with the story with a video too  LMAO big time now.

 

https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/lehighvalley/69-news-meteorologist-discusses-european-weather-model-forecasting-december-snow-in-lehigh-valley-that-took/article_7af2db2c-8263-11ee-bfee-7b74ff14fc43.html

 

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10 hours ago, Albedoman said:

well I posted this on saturday- guess what Channel 69 picks it up this evening and runs with the story with a video too  LMAO big time now.

 

https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/lehighvalley/69-news-meteorologist-discusses-european-weather-model-forecasting-december-snow-in-lehigh-valley-that-took/article_7af2db2c-8263-11ee-bfee-7b74ff14fc43.html

 

If you notice they actually picked up my Facebook post and a couple ski areas along with Channel 69 referenced my post in this video!. The folks that shared my page drove my weather site to pick up over 1700 new followers since the Saturday post. I am approaching 6k followers. Sadly many seem to not understand the differences between model guidance and a forecast. My constant tagline on the site is "we don't shovel or plow model snow!: but folks don't listen!  image.thumb.png.4d772979ac42edd5848d937a769a7287.png

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We are running at over 1 degree chillier than normal so far here in November and a colder than normal pattern looks increasingly likely to continue for most of the rest of November. After starting 2023 with 4 straight above normal months - this will mark 4 of the last 7 months to feature below normal temperatures across our area. Today will turn increasingly windy by late this morning and temps will struggle to escape the 40's across the higher spots in the county. A very brief warming trend for both Thursday and Friday before the cold air returns on Friday night. We really need some rain...unfortunately while there is a chance of some rain by Friday night I am not optimistic.
Records for today: High 74 (1955) / Low 14 (1920) / Rain 1.58" (1972) / Snow 5.0" (1908)
image.png.b3b3c5212d89d03683df30a99ff6e261.png
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For snow lovers, here is your chance to get some early season flakes in the next 10 - 14 days. A great discussion courtesy of @brooklynwx99

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there have been some posts on next week's potentially exciting pattern, so I thought I'd share some more coherent thoughts... the main driver for this change in the pattern from -PNA/+EPO to +PNA/-EPO will be an anomalously strong +EAMT (east Asian mountain torque) that will develop over the next couple of days. HP is around 3-4 sigma above normal here

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-asia-mslp_norm_anom-0071200.thumb.png.fc53f41fe53194444581409264567768.png

the way EAMT works is that since the pressure gradient force is pointed to the west (wind blows from HP to LP), the Pacific jet must extend in order to conserve the total momentum. we see this Pacific jet extension here:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-globe-uv200_stream-1699920000-1700179200-1701129600-80-4.gif.a17efe97f577fffff6813500075b93e4.gif

the Pacific jet extension then forces a strong Aleutian / GoA LP (yay El Nino) that leads to an anomalous -EPO that is also timed up with a +PNA! no more -EPO/-PNA crap from last year, it seems. these patterns are very efficient at driving Arctic air into the CONUS, especially the Plains eastward. given split flow and the displacement of the TPV into SE Canada, there is certainly an increased risk at seeing wintry weather, even south of the M-D line. either way, there is a reason for this pattern to develop... I don't think it's model fantasy BS

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1064800.thumb.png.ea5c59df762895606eb786c3fe8abc48.png

 

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44 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

For snow lovers, here is your chance to get some early season flakes in the next 10 - 14 days. A great discussion courtesy of @brooklynwx99

 

Thanks! I was reading his post and have to reread it in greater detail. I thought PAC jet extension were bad because they flood NA with PAC puke.

But apparently in El Niño years it aids in developing a -EPO? Always learning new things here.

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1 minute ago, JTA66 said:

Thanks! I was reading his post and have to reread it in greater detail. I thought PAC jet extension were bad because they flood NA with PAC puke.

But apparently in El Niño years it aids in developing a -EPO? Always learning new things here.

During La Nina years, the Pacific is pretty zonal and floods the CONUS with zonal puke. The EAMT can enhance that and just take us from bad to worse.

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4 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

If you notice they actually picked up my Facebook post and a couple ski areas along with Channel 69 referenced my post in this video!. The folks that shared my page drove my weather site to pick up over 1700 new followers since the Saturday post. I am approaching 6k followers. Sadly many seem to not understand the differences between model guidance and a forecast. My constant tagline on the site is "we don't shovel or plow model snow!: but folks don't listen!  image.thumb.png.4d772979ac42edd5848d937a769a7287.png

I saw this and laughed. Then I began to recognize some of the features on that page and matched it up with you! 

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12 hours ago, ChescoWx said:
We are running at over 1 degree chillier than normal so far here in November and a colder than normal pattern looks increasingly likely to continue for most of the rest of November. After starting 2023 with 4 straight above normal months - this will mark 4 of the last 7 months to feature below normal temperatures across our area. Today will turn increasingly windy by late this morning and temps will struggle to escape the 40's across the higher spots in the county. A very brief warming trend for both Thursday and Friday before the cold air returns on Friday night. We really need some rain...unfortunately while there is a chance of some rain by Friday night I am not optimistic.
Records for today: High 74 (1955) / Low 14 (1920) / Rain 1.58" (1972) / Snow 5.0" (1908)
image.png.b3b3c5212d89d03683df30a99ff6e261.png

That would be 7 of 11 months above normal using the newer higher normal years set so nothing cool about it

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