Hurricane Agnes Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 Eventually made it up to 48 as a high yesterday and bottomed out a degree warmer this morning than yesterday morning, with a low of 31. This time, the winds went completely calm overnight so that assisted the radiational cooling. The frost was definitely heavy this morning though vs yesterday and it looks like my high was 56 today under blue skies. Currently 55 and sunny with dp 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 Saw one today, a yellow jacket that is. Cruised by me at a shopping center, no doubt looking for trash cans. Hardy lil bastards holding on till the last. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 Today looks to be a mainly cloudy day with sun returning tomorrow. Temps will average near normal today through Monday with highs in the upper 50's. Warmer on Tuesday before chillier again on Wednesday. We could really use some rain as we are running almost 4" below normal for the year. Our next rain chances look to be on Wednesday night. Records for today: High 80 (1974) / Low 21 (1952) / Rain 1.81" (1947) / Snow 5.6" (1910) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 48F/DP 41F/Dry/Overcast/, mowed lawn, looks like death (wild fire sky) out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 Outside having a kettle fire and we just had a two minute light shower. Didn't see that coming, not in the local forecast either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 Top 10'er November day, sunny mild light wind blue sky And a yellow jacket on my Tandy cake.. *Make that two jackets 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 High temp 68F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 lots of raking to do on Wednesday as the 30 mph wind gusts from the passing cold front really does a number on what leave are left on the trees. on Tuesday through Tuesday night . We sure could use an inch of rain right now too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 This week should be a roller coaster ride regarding temperatures. Both Tuesday and Thursday should see temps well above normal in the mid 60's. The other days this week and into the weekend will see below normal temps with well below normal readings by Friday. Highs toward and through the weekend will likely stay in the 40's for high temps. Next chance of rain is not until Friday. Records for today: High 78 (1948) / Low 18 (1991) / Rain 2.90" (1963) / Snow 8.6" (1953) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Typical up and down weather pattern as we move through November. Warmer today with temps well above normal in the upper 60's. Cooler again tomorrow - milder Thursday then below normal through the upcoming weekend. Unfortunately only minor chances of much needed rain through the week. Records for today: High 75 (1938) / Low 19 (1960) / Rain 1.38" (1932) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Gonna need to sun to breakout if I'm hitting today's forecasted high of 70F. Currently 60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 5 hours ago, JTA66 said: Gonna need to sun to breakout if I'm hitting today's forecasted high of 70F. Currently 60F. Think 66F was my high around 3:30pm. Currently 62F at 4:55pm....sun going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Think 66F was my high around 3:30pm. Currently 62F at 4:55pm....sun going down. Same, topped out at 66F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 Medium and long range models are picking up right where we left off last winter with a warmer than normal pattern for much of November. There are some hints of pattern change after Thanksgiving but for now, we don’t even have any possible first flakes to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 A below normal November looks increasingly likely looking at the longer range models that take us through Thanksgiving week here in Chester County. Today will be a good 15 degrees chillier than yesterday and tomorrow will be 15 degrees warmer than today. Overall so far in November we have experience below normal temperatures. With the exception of tomorrow we should see most days over the next week continuing this chilly trend with below normal temps. Unfortunately, any rain chances look slight at best. Records for today: High (76) 2020 / 17 (1976) / Rain 2.53 (1996) / Snow 0.8" (1927) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 5 hours ago, LVblizzard said: Medium and long range models are picking up right where we left off last winter with a warmer than normal pattern for much of November. There are some hints of pattern change after Thanksgiving but for now, we don’t even have any possible first flakes to get excited about. 6z GFS showing first flakes at 300 hours, lock it up!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 5 hours ago, LVblizzard said: Medium and long range models are picking up right where we left off last winter with a warmer than normal pattern for much of November. There are some hints of pattern change after Thanksgiving but for now, we don’t even have any possible first flakes to get excited about. It looks to IMHO to be a below normal temperature November in reviewing the latest models....we will be solidly below normal through the 15th with more below normal temps arriving Thanksgiving week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 For you snow fans out there....of note here in Chester County PA we have only averaged a first measurable snowfall prior to November 30th only 43% of the time or 55 times with 129 years of records. The longest stretch without a first measurable snowfall was the 9 years between 1941 and 1949 followed closely by the 8 years between 1970 and 1978. The most consecutive years with snowfall prior to the end of November was the 10 years between 1903 and 1912. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: 6z GFS showing first flakes at 300 hours, lock it up!! Buckle up But in all seriousness, the week of TG looks like a nice step down to a colder regime on the ens means. Trof in East, disturbance(s) under the region, ridge in Western Canada. We take what we can get. I'd rather punt Nov for a better heart of winter tbh if I had a choice. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Buckle up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Buckle up But in all seriousness, the week of TG looks like a nice step down to a colder regime on the ens means. Trof in East, disturbance(s) under the region, ridge in Western Canada. We take what we can get. I'd rather punt Nov for a better heart of winter tbh if I had a choice. The 12z GFS pushed my 300 hour first flakes back to 360 hours. Delayed but not denied! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 Today should be our last mild day for at least the next week or so. Many spots across Chesco will touch the mid-60's today before another cold front crosses the area later. Mainly dry and chillier than normal weather should continue till at least the middle of next week with many of the higher spots in the county failing to escape the 40's for high temps for much of the next week. Unfortunately also continued dry! Records for today: High 78 (1975) / Low 19 (1976) / Rain 2.04" (1962) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 On 11/8/2023 at 9:13 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Buckle up But in all seriousness, the week of TG looks like a nice step down to a colder regime on the ens means. Trof in East, disturbance(s) under the region, ridge in Western Canada. We take what we can get. I'd rather punt Nov for a better heart of winter tbh if I had a choice. Yessir, buckle up indeed. You have to like the upper level pattern being shown late month on the ensembles with ridging building in the west with a nice -epo look and a trough in the east with maybe a period of transient blocking in the Atlantic thrown in. Obviously the volatility with the models of late(to be expected this time of the year), it'll be getting that look to progress in time but I think we eventually see nice window for potential first flakes or more late this month into early December at least. I think things are progressing about as good as possible for this winter. Looks far from the typical el nino blowtorch early winter that you see sometimes in strong nino's where you're holding out for a pattern change to save the day in late jan/early feb. Thinking this year could be shaping up to be an active at least first half of December where we could score a decent snow before a thaw period late month or early jan as the pattern reloads again for even better potential late jan/feb when we hit the heart of climo. At the very least, I'm very confident that we will all do better than last year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 Talk about the ups and downs this week! Highs IMBY from Saturday through to Wednesday have been 57, 66, 59, 65, and 53 respectively. The lows - 36, 39, 39, 51, 39. The low this morning was 41 and I would definitely say it has been unsettled but it has also been dry here. Have only had 0.03" for the month so far and actually finished up October with only 1.40". The sun had finally popped out later this morning and it's currently partly sunny and up to 61 with dp 52. Still haven't put the heat on yet although I had my little portable going a few days for some spot warmth. I had ventured out around the neighborhood and got some gas earlier this week and noticed that probably 1/2 of the maples (mostly younger trees and both Norway and sugar) still have leaves, so haven't had the big 2nd dump yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 Latest CPC ENSO discussion released today - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml Calling for El Nino to continue at least through June 2024 with a 55% chance of it being "strong" through March 2024. MJO not really in a favorable phase at the moment. Te NAO has been mostly negative in varying degrees through last month although it seems to be forecast to go more neutral this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 Disclaimer: This post is not meant to be taken seriously, I have no idea if the patterns even resemble each other, and I'm not saying it's going to be a redux however I'm just going to say it... this variability in temps to start the month reminds me of the beginning of November 09. That month also started out very dry. Also was a strongish el nino coming out of a multi year nina. Just saying... Now let the buns fly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 On 11/8/2023 at 2:30 PM, JTA66 said: The 12z GFS pushed my 300 hour first flakes back to 360 hours. Delayed but not denied! That's the right attitude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 18 hours ago, The Iceman said: Disclaimer: This post is not meant to be taken seriously, I have no idea if the patterns even resemble each other, and I'm not saying it's going to be a redux however I'm just going to say it... this variability in temps to start the month reminds me of the beginning of November 09. That month also started out very dry. Also was a strongish el nino coming out of a multi year nina. Just saying... Now let the buns fly Several mets have 09-10 as an analog so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 After a chance at least across Southern Chester County of some much needed rain today...a stretch of below normal temps will set in again today lasting for much of the next week before a warmup to above normal by next Thursday. Looking at the longer range from this point it looks like another cooling trend should start in by the end of next weekend and last through the Thanksgiving Holiday! Records for today 74 (2020) / 16 (1973) / Rain 2.05" (1898) / Snow 0.1" (1987) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 On 11/8/2023 at 9:13 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Buckle up But in all seriousness, the week of TG looks like a nice step down to a colder regime on the ens means. Trof in East, disturbance(s) under the region, ridge in Western Canada. We take what we can get. I'd rather punt Nov for a better heart of winter tbh if I had a choice. The first region-wide snowfall will happen sometime between December 1st and 6th. Why? I’ll be in London that week and it would be my luck to miss the first snow of the season. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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