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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread


Rtd208
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1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

You must be new here. :lol:

Yeah, why talk about actual weather when we can talk abbout wenie runs...! lol

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

Exactly, how did that winter work out?

It doesn't really matter, it's probably just the GFS doing GFS things. And as others have said, it's such a small sample size (Oct/Nov snows preceding ratter winters) may simply be "noise".

I did like the look of last night's Euro -- looks like a frontal passage changing to wet flakes. That's very November 1995-ish. And I am intrigued by Chuck's call for a neutral NOA. On the surface, that doesn't sound promising. But one possible interpretation is the NOA diddy-bopping back and forth between positive & negative. And our best storm chances occur during phase changes. Whether those storms are wet or white, tbd.

It does have Ralph's attention, afterall three runs is a trend! 

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4 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said:

Let's talk about frost before we talk about jumping in snow banks-- Its all about signs and indications. Best chance for first frost for me is Wednesday, Nov. 1.  

I know we had a ratter of a winter last year but have we gotten so desperate we track frost now? We have a Super Nino....go big or go home. Best shot at a big storm here since 2016 imo. If this fall longwave pattern is any indication of what's to come, we are going to be active early and often. 

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3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know we had a ratter of a winter last year but have we gotten so desperate we track frost now? We have a Super Nino....go big or go home. Best shot at a big storm here since 2016 imo. If this fall longwave pattern is any indication of what's to come, we are going to be active early and often. 

It is about as good a look we can get in November this far out. It will be interesting to see how it works out.

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6 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Good luck with the tooth (might be time to medicate), and hope you see some flakes.

Too warm at 42F and radar isn't doing anything, the tooth however has some white stuff oozing out so there's that

No pain at all funny enough it must be on a long fuse

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October finished as the 29th warmest October with an average temperature of 56.3. The warmest October with now 130 years of observations was way back in 1900 at 61.3 degrees the coldest was the 47.1 degrees back in 1925. It was also the 32nd driest October with just 1.91" of rain falling. The all-time dry October was back in 1924 when a scant 0.05" of rain fell. The wettest October was just 11 years ago when 9.12" fell in 2012 with the impact of Hurricane Sandy across the area.
We saw some reported snow flurries not to far west of Chester County this morning and today will be a cold day for the 1st day of November with temps struggling to escape the mid-40's in the higher elevations and remaining in the upper 40's in lower spots. We will see our 1st widespread freeze tonight. I expect some higher spots of Western Chester County to dip below freezing as early as the 10pm hour this evening. So local farmers and green thumbs should be sure to bring in any tender vegetation. This will effectively end the growing season here in the County at 206 days since our last freeze back on April 9th. This is the longest growing season since the 231 days back in 2017. Our temps should start to rebound toward the weekend with sunny skies and above normal temps.
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4 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

November is freaking boring. No hurricanes to track, no chances of thunderstorms, and snow is still weeks away. Looking at the long range GFS doesn’t even give us any fantasy storms. It’s just a brutal month for weenies.

You can just make up stuff for December like they are doing in the MA forum. 

 

32 degrees right on the line when I got in the truck this morning. 

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Today was our first widespread freeze for all locations across Chester County. This ends the growing season at 207 days which is 9 days longer than our average season. Here in East Nantmeal we have reached a low so far of 28.7 this morning - we did not see readings that cold last year until the 28.2 on November 18th. Below normal temps both today and tomorrow before a nice warming trend begins over the weekend that brings us to above normal temps by mid-week before colder weather again toward next weekend. Next rain chances not till Monday night.
Records for today: High 82 (1982) / Low 20 (1923) / Rain 1.72" (2018)
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I am still surprised that I ended up with a 4-day string of light precip that totaled 0.40" (had a sneaky 0.10" Tues. and 0.03" yesterday morning).

The  high yesterday never made it to 50 (was 49) after a low of 33 and this morning I bottomed out at 30.0 on the nose. I noticed that the winds never went completely calm here overnight. The dp was in the mid 20s once the CAA blew dry air in.

Got the last of my tender subtropicals in but still have the potted fig out there to go dormant and drop its leaves before I bring that in. 

Am still resisting turning the heat on (have a portable to take the chill off where I am sitting at the moment) because once I do that, I have to get my humidifiers up and running. It's supposed to warm up by the weekend in any case. 

Currently mostly sunny and 38 with dp 29.

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53 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I am still surprised that I ended up with a 4-day string of light precip that totaled 0.40" (had a sneaky 0.10" Tues. and 0.03" yesterday morning).

The  high yesterday never made it to 50 (was 49) after a low of 33 and this morning I bottomed out at 30.0 on the nose. I noticed that the winds never went completely calm here overnight. The dp was in the mid 20s once the CAA blew dry air in.

Got the last of my tender subtropicals in but still have the potted fig out there to go dormant and drop its leaves before I bring that in. 

Am still resisting turning the heat on (have a portable to take the chill off where I am sitting at the moment) because once I do that, I have to get my humidifiers up and running. It's supposed to warm up by the weekend in any case. 

Currently mostly sunny and 38 with dp 29.

:lol: My rule of thumb is no AC before Memorial Day and no heat before Halloween. I held out until Tuesday evening when the last of the little beggars knocked at the door.

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Another frosty start across most of the County this morning. Temperatures look to remain slightly below normal over the weekend and into the start of the new work week. However we should stay above freezing for night time lows for the upcoming week. Colder air looks likely to return again by the middle of the month.
Records for today: High 80 (2003) / Low 17 (1951) / Rain 1.24" (1910) and Snow 1.0" (1910) part of the 2nd largest early season snowstorm in Chester County history with another 5.6" falling on the 4th for a 6.6" total. The greatest early season snowfall in the county occurred just 12 years ago with the 9.0" of snow that fell on October 29, 2011.
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